Chiarelli’s Options

We’re a few days into July, meaning the frenzy is likely over. The Oilers are an improved team right now, but is it enough to push them into the conversation for the post-season? The heart says it is, but the brain says close, but no cigar.

The fact is, Edmonton is still short a top-four defender. Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Mark Fayne is a solid start, but that’s only three names. Signing Cody Franson or Christian Ehrhoff honestly might be enough to put the Oilers in the conversation, I truly believe that.

It isn’t easy, however. Edmonton can’t just go out and sign Franson or Ehrhoff, they need to shed salary and a body or two. As it currently stands, Edmonton has about ten legit options to play in the NHL next season. Some of them, three to be exact, are major question marks.

Justin Schultz:

The much maligned puck-mover has not made the desired impact at the NHL-level. He struggles passing the puck up ice, can’t play effective defense at the NHL-level, and doesn’t have enough of an impact offensively to make a difference. At this point, Schultz is nothing more than a third-pairing option who can handle power-play duty.

I’d imagine the Oilers take Schultz to arbitration, which they’ll have to announce by 5:00 pm est this afternoon. If they do that, they can likely get him on a manageable one year deal. I’d like to see the Oil move him in a trade, but I’m assuming Schultz gets a one-year trial on Todd McLellan’s blue-line.

Nikita Nikitin:

I’ll say it now, I’ll be stunned if he is on the roster come October. Nikitin has one more year left at $4.5 million, which is a huge amount. Nikitin was signed to be a top-four defender in Edmonton, but all he was this past season was a major liability. He was too slow, and on many occasions was blown past by opposing forwards, resulting in chances against.

Nikitin didn’t provide any offensive impact, and showed up to camp out-of-shape. At this stage of his career, Nikitin is likely a number five defender on a good day. His production does not match his price point, it isn’t even close.

Andrew Ference:

Captain Ference is my favorite of the three, but he’s running low on gas right now. Ference is a character guy, a smaller player but one who is physical nonetheless. On top of that, he prides himself on a shut-down style, one he executed to perfection in Calgary and Boston.

In Edmonton, Ference has been put in a tough spot. He’s still an NHL’er, but at this point he’s probably suited to a third-pairing role. The Oilers, due to a lack of options, have had to use him as a top-four guy.

I think with less minutes and easier competition, Ference can still help the Oilers. That said, he has two years left on his deal, and he is owed $3.25 million per. That’s a big chunk of change for a bottom-pairing defender.

The Options:

The Oilers can do one of three things here, they can keep all three of these players, buy-out one or two of them, or trade any number of these players. In all honesty, I think the odds of Edmonton hanging onto all three players is 0%. The hints, mainly from Bob Stauffer, suggest that Edmonton will dump at least one body.

Looking at the roster, I don’t think there is a way that all three of these guys go to camp, especially if the team wants to have Griffin Reinhart play in the NHL come October.

Buying a player out is a serious option. The Oilers can open a second buy-out period if they take two players to arbitration. The options? The above mentioned Schultz, Brandon Davidson and Tyler Pitlick. If the Oilers go for club-elected arbitration with two of the three, the second buy-out window will be triggered. We’ll know about this tonight.

A trade is possible, but it will be tricky. You can move Schultz for futures easily, but dealing Nikitin or Ference gets difficult. Unless a team like Arizona, Toronto, Florida or New Jersey wants to help you by taking the contract and an asset, the Oil will have to either eat some money or take a bad contract back.

The top candidate for this? Probably Nikitin, because you’d only have to eat salary for one season, and it would only be a hair over $2,000,000 at most.

Prediction Time:

I think the Oilers get creative, and go for club-elected arbitration with both Justin Schultz and Tyler Pitlick, which opens the second buy-out window up. I bet Chiarelli tries to deal one of Nikitin or Ference, but odds are he has no luck and is forced to buy-out Nikitin at the end of the month.

Is it an ideal ending? Probably not, but it would rid the team of a defensive liability and open up some cap space. There are certainly worse outcomes, like riding into St. Louis with the player on October 8th.

Jonathan Willis over at OilersNation touched on this topic as well. His take can be read here, and I highly recommend checking it out.