Ben Scrivens: Moving On?

Credit to my friend Lowetide, who posted something over at OilersNation Sunday that gave me the idea of today’s post. You can read his article here. As always, it’s a tremendous piece of work.

Going into the summer, I thought the odds of Ben Scrivens being the back-up in October were about 100%. When Edmonton traded for Cam Talbot, those thoughts were essentially cemented. Now, just ten days after Talbot came aboard, it appears Scrivens could be an option to actually leave Edmonton. Color me surprised with this.

The Quotes:

TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweeted the following out back on Wednesday, just before the floodgates opened up for free agent frenzy.

@Real_ESPNLeBrun: Hearing that the Oilers have kicked the tires on UFA goalies Ramo and Neuvirth… but I think Ramo more likely to re-sign with Flames

The Oilers were in on two NHL goalies, both of the back-up variety. Interestingly, both Ramo and Neuvirth were discussed on this blog as options for the starting role in Edmonton. The Oilers clearly liked both of them and pursued, even after acquiring Talbot’s services.

James Mirtle, reporter for The Globe and Mail, tweeted this out on July 1st as well, adding fuel to the fire.

@mirtle: Oilers seem split on whether they want to stick with Scrivens as backup or not. Some feel burnt after last year.

Scrivens did burn the Oilers last year, no doubt, as he fell apart behind the teams’ poor defensive unit. Scrivens played in 57 games this past year, and posted a .890 SV%. For those scoring at home, that mark was poor enough to be slotted in as one of the five worst goalies in the NHL. That’s not good.

Here’s the thing, while Ben Scrivens was terrible for portions of the season last year, he is not a bad goaltender. He had a bad year, yes, but so didn’t Devan Dubnyk in 2013-14. As we saw this year, giving up on a goalie who has a solid track record after one year is a bad idea.

In 2013-14, after coming over from LA, Scrivens posted a .916 SV% in 21 games, average goaltending. I’d wager he’s closer to that goalie than the one who imploded and posted a .890 SV% this past season.

In the AHL, Scrivens has posted marks of .917, .926, and .924, all average or above it. In the NCAA, he showed improvement every season and was an above average goalie, something he replicated in a short ECHL stint.

At the NHL level, Scrivens has been consistent outside of this past year. His .902 and .915 SV%’s in Toronto behind a bad Toronto team suggests a below-average to average goalie. In LA, he posted a sensational .931 mark before going to Edmonton, where he was still average.

The one difference? This past season, where Scrivens played on a terrible defensive team and was force fed more starts than he had ever seen before at this level.

The New Option:

Edmonton was looking on July 1st, and clearly the shopping did not stop there. Yesterday, the Oilers acquired G Anders Nilsson from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for F Liam Coughlin. Quickly following the deal, Edmonton signed Nilsson to a one-year contract that is worth $1 million. Also of note, the deal is a one-way contract.

Now, Nilsson told his KHL team he was not re-signing this spring because he wanted an NHL gig. With Edmonton bringing him over and giving him a one-way deal, I think it’s safe to say he’s the new option for back-up goalie.

Here’s the thing, Nilsson’s previous NHL/AHL stats don’t scream difference maker, but he’s surely to be better than Scrivens was last season. If he’s the guy, and it seems like he is, it’s only a matter of time before the other shoe drops.

Closing Thoughts:

I can understand bringing in another option for back-up goalie, Scrivens was not good last season. That being said, there is certainly risk to bringing in a guy from Europe with shaky North American stats and moving off a guy with one bad season and a solid track record otherwise.

I know Scrivens struggled last year, but he’s a good bounce-back candidate this season. Edmonton will be playing a more structured game, have a better defense, and will be able to play Scrivens in less games thanks to Cam Talbot being around.

Scrivens’ track record in the NCAA, ECHL, AHL and NHL prior to 2014-15 suggest that this is a legit NHL back-up goaltender. If I’m the Oilers, I’d bet on Scrivens finding that form again, and returning to being an average goalie this season.

If he does, perfect, if not, you can move on from him next summer when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

I’m rooting for Ben, he’s a good guy and he really does love being an Oiler. I’d love to see him turn it around and help this team turn north. I also think he is capable of doing that. Take the lesson of Devan Dubnyk and apply it here, this might be a chance to correct that wrong.

Sadly, after yesterday’s trade, I just can’t see Scrivens sticking around more than a few weeks in Edmonton. He’s days certainly look numbered to this observer.