It opened and closed faster than the second Death Star lasted in Return of the Jedi, the second buy-out window passed the Oilers by with no news. Edmonton elected not to use the gift it was given when they settled with RFA D Justin Schultz last week.
Instead, the Oilers will move into late July with ten defenders in the organization who could all play in the NHL come October. Competition? Yeah, you betcha.
Why did Edmonton not use the second window? What are the options now for the team? Let’s look.
Why No Buy-out?:
I explained the pros and cons last week in a piece, and it appears Edmonton decided the cons were too much. To me, however, this was a simple decision. At the moment, Edmonton does not need the salary cap space. The team isn’t planning to add anyone it would seem, so there is no need to open up room that will not be needed.
The other reason is extending the pain. Why pay Nikita Nikitin for two more seasons or Andrew Ference for four more? Being patient will kill the Nikitin contract next June, while waiting on Ference cuts the buy-out down to just two years next summer.
Oh, and while it’s incredibly optimistic, both could bounce back next season. Ference will likely be given a far lesser role this fall, possibly seventh defender, while Nikitin is going to be coming to camp healthy. Is Niki a top-four NHL defender? No, he isn’t, but he also is not as bad as he was last season.
So….What Now?:
Trade: The Oilers could trade one of the buy-out candidates. Retaining half of Nikitin’s salary for the 2015-16 season is an option, sending him to a team that missed out on the free agent market. Same goes for Ference, but you’d have to eat salary for the next two years, a more difficult task.
Thing is, you won’t get much in return for either player, just some cap space and a roster spot. If anything happens between now and September, this would be my bet.
Waivers: Another very legit option. If Nikitin messes the bed in camp this year, Edmonton could waive him and bury him in the minors. While it would only save a small amount of money on the cap, it would get Nikitin off the roster. At the same time, it would send a very loud and clear message to other under-performing players in Edmonton.
This option is less likely than a trade, but it would not surprise me. Edmonton has the financial flexibility to make it work.
Camp Competition: This is the most likely outcome at this time. All ten defenders (Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne, Eric Gryba, Griffin Reinhart, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Ference, Nikitin) attend training camp and fight it out for seven or eight spots. It would sure make for an interesting pre-season. It may also light a fire under some guys.
Development Time: Keeping Ference and Nikitin for another season could allow for a year in the AHL for Darnell Nurse. Nurse was the best defender in the CHL last season, and was arguably Oklahoma City’s best defender during his brief cameo in the Calder Cup Playoffs.
Nurse appears ready, but a stint in the AHL playing top minutes wouldn’t hurt. Same goes for Griffin Reinhart, who already has one season of AHL experience under his belt. Could some more seasoning hurt the player? Probably not.
The Likely Scenario:
Edmonton had a chance to buy-out Andrew Ference or Nikita Nikitin this past weekend, but they elected not to. This was GM Peter Chiarelli sending a clear message. Competition in training camp is coming, and guys will have a clean slate. That’s a big deal, and it’s important to get across.
On top of that, Chiarelli also kept his proverbial powder dry. He’ll have more financial flexibility next summer, when potential top-pairing options litter the free agent market. He didn’t mortgage future moves for a move today.
There’s still time between now and training camp, a lot of time, but I think we’ll be seeing all ten of these defenders coming into camp and fighting for their NHL lives. I know one thing for sure, it’ll be fun to watch.
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