Last night I was about to drift off to dreamworld as I was unexpectedly dragged into a conversation about a topic that puts some fan to sleep- Advanced Stats. I’ve never been a huge proponent or detractor of these metrics or community. I’ve always found them interesting but I would definitely say I’m a more traditional fan. So I was a little surprised when the Oilers Rig’s own Dave Gordon @RustyKnuckler pulled me into a conversation about Corsi around midnight yesterday evening.
There was a short time where (through wanting to understand) I attempted to incorporate and comment on advanced statistics in my posts (not here, but over at Oilersaddict.com) but I found that I had trouble interpreting the data in an accurate way. I really don’t enjoy mathematics in my personal time, so I quit attempting to develop arguments based on the new metrics.
I also found that when reading others who were turning to the new stats for content, that many had the same difficulty using advanced stats. In my opinion, there are only a select few in the blogosphere who have the depth of knowledge and mathematical acumen to create content based on advanced statistics which is both entertaining to read and draws conclusions which seem to make sense. While I usually shy away from reading posts related to the new stats, I will admit to being a daily reader at the Cult of Hockey. While I don’t always agree with what is being written there (as a fan how can you possibly agree with everything), but for the most part Willis, Staples (even though he uses his own metrics), and McCurdy do a really good job of explaining the concepts and relating them to the pieces they write. Being a regular reader of that blog hasn’t converted me to being a stat-head, but it has given me a appreciation for the work that is being done.
I will never state that advanced stats don’t have value. If I was the GM of an NHL team (God Forbid), I would definitely want access to someone who understands them, without question. They wouldn’t rule the decision making tool box, but they would be one of the aspects I would consider with regards to hockey related decisions.
I did find it interesting that when I was over at a friend’s place last summer (who is a former NHLer), he asked me about advanced stats. He kept hearing about them and he and a current NHL player had a conversation about them the night before. When I explained what I knew about Corsi, Fenwick, etc. to him, he just looked at me and said, “well, isn’t that kind of obvious? Wouldn’t you expect good teams and their best players to generally out-shoot their opposition?” He was underwhelmed by what I told him, however, it is very possible that I undersold the concepts. However, I feel that he had a point.
At the end of the day, I feel the new metrics have their place and I am not at all surprised that NHL teams are starting or already have departments for monitoring advanced statistics. To be honest, I don’t even know why the online argument still exists between stats guys and regular fans, because any fan would want their team using every advantage possible, wouldn’t they?
What they mean for the common fan is still open for debate. While I accept and appreciate the new metrics, I don’t want hockey nights turning into calculus class, otherwise, I’ll just stay at work.
Maybe it is just me.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
