Hall & Seguin

This post is a companion/sequel to one I posted about Taylor Hall titled, “Vilification,” over at Oilersaddict.com. In the immortal words of Rodney Dangerfield, the first overall pick from 2010, “gets no respect.” Some Oilers fans still lament that the Oilers chose Hall rather than Tyler Seguin. Is that a reasonable point of view?

My feeling is that Hall is one of the top left wingers in the game and he proved it two seasons ago. He has also played on the worst team in the NHL for his entire 5 season career. Since he was supposed to be the savior when he was drafted in 2010 he has become the goat to many in 2015. However, with the exception of last season, his play has been really good. Due to the failings of the team, Hall has not been able to shake the comparisons to Seguin. I believe the Oilers made the right choice, but is the notion that the Oilers should have drafted Seguin warranted?

To prepare this post, I compared the two players seasons at War-On-Ice.com. I then grabbed their usual line-mates from Dobber Hockey.com and of course reviewed their profiles and the 2010 draft at hockeydb.com. The reason was to gain a better context of the circumstances which have unfolded for each individual since their draft day. I didn’t include last season as Hall was hurt for most of the season.

So here is a comparison based on each season:

2010-11

Line Combos

Hall (Oilers record 30th overall, 25-45-12)

Seguin (Bruins record 7th overall, 46-25-11)

2011-12

Line Combos

Hall (Oilers record 29th overall, 32-40-10)

Seguin (Bruins record 7th overall, 49-29-4)

2012-13

Line Combos

Hall (Oilers record 24th overall, 19-22-7)

Seguin (Bruins record 5th overall, 48-28-14)

2013-14

Line Combos

Hall (Oilers record 28th overall, 29-44-9)

Seguin (Stars record 16th overall, 40-31-11)

2010 NHL Entry Draft Scoring Leaders

Does all this information solve anything? No, it doesn’t. If anything, if gives credibility to the argument of drafting Seguin. Their career scoring is relatively even in terms of points-per-game, with a slight edge going to Hall (0.88 for Hall vs. 0.80 for Seguin). Although, Seguin has had 30 goal seasons where Hall has yet to score more than 27. There is an argument for Seguin to be made.

However….

When putting these numbers in context the situation the player found himself is a real factor. Hall was drafted and went to the worst team in the league. Due to the Brian Burke’s ego, Seguin went to an established contender in Boston. Seguin went to a deep club and played and learned from veterans like Recchi, Bergeron, Savard, Krejci, and Chara. The Bruins were deep enough that Seguin won a cup as a rookie. Hall on the other hand went to a paper thin club which finished 30th. Seguin has never played on a sub-500 team. Hall has never played on a team anywhere close to the positive side of .500.

There are those who will say that these things don’t matter. However, they do. Hockey is a team sport and it is rare that a single player can elevate a team from the basement to the penthouse.

If having a deep veteran club isn’t important for a young player, then why are their fans worried about McDavid living with Hall? Wouldn’t that suggest that people realize the importance of a strong veteran presence? You can’t argue that McDavid shouldn’t be living with Hall on one hand and then state that Seguin starting his career with a deep veteran club in Boston with the other doesn’t matter.

You can’t have it both ways.

Look, I get it. There is an argument to be made for Seguin. The numbers support it. However, the context of the situations each player found themselves in makes the debate murkier. The comparison with Seguin will follow Hall for his entire career. The conversation may change and shift (this Oiler fan hopes) as Hall’s team grows into a competitive team over the next few seasons. What will Hall’s numbers look like once McDavid, Nurse, & Draisaitl establish themselves? How will good and consistent coaching impact #4? While there is an argument to be made for Seguin over Hall, it is still early in the evolution of both of their careers to chisel the victor in stone.