Good News for Peter Chiarelli: The Fourth Overall Pick Is Gaining Value

The experts kept telling us that there was a Big Three in this year’s NHL Draft: Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi. So when the Oilers ended up with the fourth overall pick, naturally there was disappointment.

But hold on, folks! Due to Matthew Tkachuk‘s impressive performance in the OHL playoffs and the Memorial Cup, the American winger’s value is spiking upward.

There might now be a Big Four.

And, no, folks, I’m not making this up. This is according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman in his latest “30 Thoughts” column. Here’s the money quote for Oiler fans:

What it also does is drive up the value of those Columbus and Edmonton draft slots. The Oilers would particularly benefit, since there no longer seems much of a drop-off (if any at all) at four.

How should Oiler fans react to this news?

With Tkachuk’s value at an all-time high, there are at least two possible scenarios that would benefit the Oilers.

First, it could be that the Blue Jackets are one of the teams that now see a Big Four in the draft and decide to take Tkachuk with the third overall pick. If that happens, Chiarelli should sprint to the podium and select Puljujarvi. Of course, that’s unlikely to happen, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Back in 2013 there was supposed to be a Big Three in the draft (Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin), but the Panthers surprised everyone and took Aleksander Barkov with the second overall pick. Will history repeat itself?

Second, if Tkachuk is available at number four, teams coveting Tkachuk could start a bidding war for the Oilers’ pick. There might be an opportunity for the Oilers to trade down and gain assets. For example, the Oilers could trade the fourth pick to the Coyotes for the seventh and thirty-seventh picks. If the Coyotes can’t draft Arizona native Matthews, the next best thing might be to draft the the son of former Coyote Keith Tkachuk. But a more appealing trade for the Oilers might be to swap the fourth pick for a defenceman.

Edit: Of course, I didn’t mention that Tkachuk probably has also impressed Chiarelli, which makes it more likely that if the Oilers do pick at number four, they’ll take him.

Until then, we wait.

The twenty-fourth of June can’t come fast enough.