The Oilers and Summer Madness

Let’s talk about the recent rumours that are circulating the Oilers landscape. The madness, has already begun.

Once again: it’s the sky is falling. What else is new in Oil Country? There are plenty of rumours out there, specifically with two of our beloved top six players and a power forward who may or may not be declining.

Milan Lucic

For starters, there was Peter LeBrun informing us that Milan Lucic would be open to coming to the Edmonton Oilers if things don’t go well with the Kings and for the right price.

My take? I’m torn. I do like Milan Lucic as a player because I do believe his presence on the ice is something that cannot be measured. The way he plays the game is rather unique: why are teams so anxious to draft the next Milan Lucic? He’s big, mean and skilled.

On the other side, it’s hard to not ignore his production which has dwindled. It’s been YEARS since he hit 30 goals in a season. His production per minute when compared to Benoit Pouliot is quite lower, especially when Pouliot plays less top six minutes than Milan Lucic. I use Pouliot here because his name came up in rumors before and is a likely candidate to be dealt.

Another part that concerns me is the cap and term: Milan Lucic is in his physical prime at 28. A player of his style starts to put on mileage due to the punishment his body takes. I would not sign Lucic for no more than 4 years but it’s a very scary term for a player that has shown signs of regression. That doesn’t even factor in his cap hit: it’s safe to assume it’ll be around six million. I would be more comfortable with 5.5 but that’s not attainable.

This is a battle between the eye test crowd and the analytics crowd. Statistic wise, Pouliot was on pace for a 54 point season before getting hurt!

Pouliot was on pace for 21-33-54. Very similar to Lucic's 20-35-55 except, of course, Poo got hurt

— Bruce McCurdy (@BruceMcCurdy) June 4, 2016

Which is damn near identical to Milan Lucic. However, Milan Lucic is also known for the intagibles that he brings, which cannot be measured. The main point here: is Lucic really worth an extra 2 million over Pouliot despite the similiar production?

If Lucic is signed to a 6 mill 4 year contract I could stomach it but it would mean one of our six million dollar players is on the way out. Which leads us to…

Taylor Hall

One of Hall or RNH is likely to get dealt, according to Bob Stauffer (via Reid Wilkins) who has the odds at greater than 50 percent.

To clarify the speculation by @Bob_Stauffer on Inside Sports:
More than 50% chance one of Hall/RNH traded.
Less than 20% chance Eb traded.

— Reid Wilkins (@ReidWilkins) June 4, 2016

I want to go on record. I don’t like the idea of trading either of them, especially Taylor Hall. I feel unless you are getting a PK Subban (who I can’t imagine will be moving), you won’t get fair value for Hall. That’s the only way I’d trade Hall is for that ilk of defenceman.

Taylor Hall is one of the best at his damn position and it is infuriating how many Oilers fans are wanting to move him. Before McDavid I consider Hall our best player. What NHL team moves one of their top players for a package deal?

Not the good teams.

I’ve said this countless times on social media: you trade Taylor Hall, you leave a gigantic hole on the left side. Good teams often do not make a hole to fix a hole. With a GM of Peter Chiarellis caliber, I don’t think he will be in A rush to do that.

Then again, this is a player where Some fans hold to a stupid standard. For example, he led Team Canada in goal scoring but you had a select few who would bag on him for not scoring in the playoff games.

Go figure.

Hall’s contract is a good one. Out of the 6 million players, his is the best value compared to his production. It’s a steal of a contract…especially compared to a potential Milan Lucic one.

A team with Hall-Pouliot/Lucic-Maroon-Hendricks looks a lot better than a Lucic-Pouliot-Maroon-Hendricks one. Hall is far from a problem and he’s been a huge chunk of the Oilers production, as noted by Woodguy55 below.

Today in Taylor Hall photoshops pic.twitter.com/ptAUTWGhkc

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) March 10, 2016

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the other player I’d be really choked to move, but compared to Hall, I could stomach it with time.

The argument for trading Nugent-Hopkins: The Oilers are “deep” at Center. He would be a third line player who is far more skilled than the minutes that would be provided for him. A young Centre is an attractive trade piece to teams. Signing a third line center who is a veteran is easier to fill than say a Hall-less team. Earlier in the year, I was fine for a Nugent-Hopkins for Seth Jones trade.

Against trading Nugent Hopkins: how many good NHL teams have a 19 year old and a 20 year old as their top two centres? The Oilers would be an injury away, again, from disaster. McDavid and Draisaitl have a minuscule 154 games of NHL experience. Draisaitl was on fire but badly faded down the stretch. It’s far too early to declare Draisaitl as the better player: he’s played not even a season and a half worth of NHL games. Nugent-Hopkins is effective on the defensive side of the game, something somewhat lacking in the top six.

What would I do?

I’d trade Jordan Eberle but there’s less than 20% chance of him being dealt. So with that said: I’d trade the 4th overall pick first and foremost. I’d only consider trading Nugent-Hopkins for a young but established top pairing defenceman. Instead of going for Lucic, I’d be far more interested in Kyle Okposo, who in recent years has had better production in less games than Lucic. Joining other bloggers, I’d go for Jason Demers in free agency: all he costs is money and term, no assets.

Nail Yakupov is gone. There’s rumblings about him going to Buffalo for Zemus Girgensons, who had struggled mightily and apparently Buffalo has soured on him. So for this, let’s say Yakupov and something for Girgensons and something.

"BUF has soured on Zemgus Girgensons" – Stauffer

— Belfour's Billionaire Boys Club (@akaRCN) June 4, 2016

I’d go for a Demers and one of Barrie/Faulk/Vatanen. If Nugent-Hopkins is dealt for one of those, then you’re also looking for a third line option, perhaps something along the lines of Frans Nielsen. Trading Hall, for me, isn’t an option.

We would need a cheaper second wing option. I’ll go for the sake of this, with Lee Stempniak, who posted 19 goals, 51 points in 82 games.

So the adds here: Barrie, Demers, Stempniak, Lucic (or Pouliot), while subtractions include Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov

So let’s try making a mock up of the madness known as my roster.

Forwards

Lucic/Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle

Hall-Draisaitl-Stempniak

Maroon-Girgensons-Kassian

Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira

Defencemen

Klefbom-Demers

Sekera-Barrie

Davidson-Fayne

Goaltenders

Talbot

Brossoit

Also, remember: This year is different. I have full confidence in Peter Chiarelli. Sure, it’s fair to criticize his moves and to have some skepticism. However, this is a guy who took the Bruins from the ground up into a Stanley Cup winner and contender while he was in office. He’s not an amateur like his predecessors. If he’s moving a giant piece like Hall or Nugent-Hopkins, you’d better damn well be sure that he will be able to get some value there.

I think it’s utter madness to freak out about rumors that could happen. As much as I love Stauffer, he has been wrong before. Remember last summer with the Brent Seabrook speculation?

June 24th is bound to be a fun one. Nothing lasts forever.