Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Scoring

https://twitter.com/WaceyRabbit20/status/745008122666749952

Hockey Canada recently released its development camp roster and Oilers prospect Ethan Bear was missing from the list, prompting responses similar to this (from myself included).

Who Is Ethan Bear?

Ethan Bear was an unheralded 5^th round draft pick by the Oilers in the 2015 Entry Draft. McKenzie did not have him in his top 85. The math liked him and Lowetide had him at 38. Still, any 5^th round pick is a long-shot to make it to the NHL.

At the time, I thought it was a solid pick for that point in the draft. Good scoring, no major negatives in any scouting report, and a late birthday meaning he was one of the younger players in his draft class.

Now a year later, Bear has put together a stellar draft + 1 year. He scored almost a point per game during the regular season (0.94), putting him 6^th among all defencemen in the WHL. Every defenceman ahead of him is older than him (though three are from the same draft year). In the playoffs, he stepped it up again, scoring 1.22 p/g and played a key role in Seattle’s run.

In addition to all this, he’s a right shot, a rarity among Oilers prospects. Here is the full list of Oilers right-handed defencemen ahead of Bear at this moment: Fayne, Gryba (UFA), Clendening (RFA). That’s it.

So Oilers fans are rightly excited about Bear.

Sign The Man!

There has been some concern over the fact that, as of this moment, Ethan Bear has not been signed to a contract. Meanwhile, his draft-mate (picked 7 spots earlier than him) Caleb Jones signed back in April soon after his season ended. This seems likely to change soon.

For fans concerned about Ethan Bear. Discussions are on-going and positive. Don't see an issue here

— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) June 21, 2016

It’s possible they are negotiating over a few details in the Entry Level Contract. Maybe Bear (after his solid draft+1 season) wants to get paid more like a 2^nd rounder than a 5^th. Maybe Chiarelli would prefer to give him the same contract as the aforementioned Jones. We’ll find out soon enough. I’ll be curious if Bear’s contract ends up larger than Jones’ because, although Bear scored at a higher rate, he may not necessarily be the better scoring defenceman.

Are All Points The Same?

wasn't his even strength scoring about half that of Caleb Jones?

— Duke Silver (@cn_mills) June 21, 2016

Cameron makes an interesting point (though ‘half’ is a bit of an overstatement). The site Prospect-stats.com is a fantastic resource for breaking down scoring from non-NHL teams and all the following stats are from them.

While Bear’s points per game is quite impressive, it’s worth looking at how he got those points.

Powerplay Time

For starters, it’s useful to look separate out a prospect’s even-strength scoring from his powerplay scoring. After all, a player may or may not get PP time when they move to a higher level. So having his scoring padded by powerplay time may not translate as well when they leave the Junior ranks.

Turns out, Bear is a powerplay wizard! He scored 36 of his 65 points on the PP. While he is 6^th in the league in points in ‘all situations’, he’s actually 3^rd in the league in PP points per game. Both players ahead of him (Flyers 1^st rounder Travis Sanheim & undrafted Joe Hicketts) are over a year older than him. Caleb Jones doesn’t do poorly here and out of 163 defencemen with at least 20 games played, Jones ranks 21^st (and 2^nd on his team).

At even-strength, the situation flips…

Last year’s #7 pick (also to the Flyers) Ivan Provorov leads the charge. His teammate, Erkamps, was identified by Lowetide as a possible undrafted free agent target for the Oilers this year (right-handed too!). Jones shoots up to 7^th in the WHL among defencemen and 1st on the Winterhawks. He’s also younger than everyone else above him (though 3 are from the same draft year). Meanwhile Bear drops back to a (still respectable) 17^th and leads his team in scoring by defence.

So we know that Bear’s PP scoring boosted his stats significantly.

Primary Points

However, there’s one more factor consider. Not all assists are equal. There’s increasing evidence that secondary assists are less valuable than primary assists. In fact, second assists are not necessarily a “repeatable skill” and we would get a better view of a player’s goal-scoring ability by looking only at goals and primary assists (primary points).

Intuitively, this makes sense. After all, if you’re picking up a lot of second assists, you may just be benefiting from playing on a line where someone else is driving play. If you’re getting a lot of goals and primary assists, you’re more likely the one driving play yourself.

What happens when we look at this at the WHL level?

Jason Fram was also identified by Lowetide as an undrafted free agent target with some mobility issues. Caleb Jones is in sole possession of 7^th and of the 6 players above him, only Provorov is from the same draft year! Provorov may make the jump to the NHL, which would give Jones a legitimate shot at leading the WHL next year. Truly, Jones had a remarkable year for a late 4^th round choice!

Bear, meanwhile, drops down to 29^th and is second on his team to the overager Jarret Smith, which is still good, but not “6^th in the league” good. In fact, among other 2015 draft eligible defencemen in the WHL, he is 11^th when looking at primary-point even-strength scoring.

So What Does This Mean?

I want to be very clear on something.

I am not down on Ethan Bear. I’m not saying he’s a poor draft choice. I’m not saying the Oilers shouldn’t sign him.

Ethan Bear was a fantastic value pick in the 5^th round. He’s built like a tank, has a great point shot and he scored a boatload of points in his Draft + 1 year. He has a June birthday and so was young for his draft-year. He’s also a right-handed defencemen, which is an extreme need for the Oilers at every level.

Further, scoring points is not the only thing a defenceman does. In his draft year, Red Line Report talked about him playing against the opposing team’s top line and ISS said he was solid positionally.

However, before we get too far on the Ethan Bear hype train, it’s worth pointing out that there are some concerning signs that his total points are not truly reflective of his offensive ability. He scores a high percentage of his points on the PP. He may not get that powerplay time once he leaves Junior. He also got a lot of secondary assists this last year and that may not be sustainable.

I am completely on board with giving him an ELC (which should happen according to the Stauffer tweet). However, we should curb our expectations and give him another year of Junior to see how he progresses. Bear is coming from a long way back and he’s got a long way to go.

The other side to this study: Caleb Jones had a better year in the WHL than I had thought! If he gets more powerplay time next year, his point totals may explode. He has a legitimate shot at leading WHL defencemen in a couple categories. As an added bonus, despite being left-handed, he played the year on the right-side.

It’s early days yet, but between Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and Ziyat Paigin, the Oilers may have hit it out of the park with their defence drafting in 2015.