This is the third and final installment in my preseason prediction series on the 2016/2017 Oilers.
Rather than go into great detail on my methods and purpose, I strongly recommend you click through to the first article to review my process if you haven’t already.
The second article is here.
Here is some of the applicable player data for reference (click to enlarge).
Today we examine the defense, goaltending and discuss end-of-season results.
Brandon Davidson – the Oilers haven’t had a player emerge internally with this kind of potential since perhaps Jeff Petry, but even he had a better draft pedigree. The names of players like Randy Gregg and Charlie Huddy come to mind the more I read about Davidson.
Davidson played the majority of his ice time against elite and middle tier competition and was more than capable, posting a +3 and +2 DFF difference against both. That is comparable to the advantage posted by Brodie and Giordano against elite competition, albeit with slightly more ice time.
His IPP is second only to Klefbom’s on the Oilers, however it does rank at around the middle to upper-middle range of the IPP percentages posted by the defence of the other two teams I’ve examined.
While he didn’t register a complete season, he did play enough games for us to collect a reasonable picture on his potential. His 5v5 points/60 is 0.55, exactly half that of Klefbom’s. Meanwhile his expected goals differential, meaning the difference between the expected goals for over 60 minutes versus those against, is 0.32, the highest amongst the Oilers’ defence by a significant margin and one of only four who posted positive numbers in this regard last season.
Davidson needs to spend the season moving between the 3rd and 2nd pairing as his play, and partner, dictates. He shows promise, but that can be fleeting and the Oilers have enough depth at his defensive strata right now to be patient with him.
I’ve projected he will play 65 games and register 12 points.
Mark Fayne – One might think that the addition of a right-handed defender to help shelter Mark Fayne would ease the criticism he faces. However, when the Oilers traded Hall for Larsson, somehow a portion of the resulting scorn was heaped on Fayne for myriad reasons, almost none of them the fault of the player.
Fayne plays defence the way they taught it 25 years ago. Or perhaps 55 years ago. He doesn’t bring offense. He isn’t physically violent or intimidating although he does have a large frame which he can use to gain leverage in puck battles. He is not prone to long breakout passes or swiftly skating the puck up ice and out of danger, not that he is a poor skater only that carrying the puck out isn’t his forte.
Mark Fayne defends. He does that one thing and he does it relatively well, albeit against middle tier competition.
For a player who contributes virtually nothing by way of offense, his expected goals differential is only -0.22, meaning he gives up only 0.22 expected goals against over 60 minutes more than he creates. I’ll repeat that last bit “that he creates”, because folks, he doesn’t create much.
So Fayne is something of a fire blanket on defence (and to some extent on offence as well, but that’s another issue). He can provide consistent quiet minutes against the middle and bottom tier competition. However, the NHL has and is changing, away from Fayne’s dominant skill set. For so long as he has a partner who demonstrates a complementary skill set (superior passing, skating) he can survive. His ability to play the right side makes him almost invaluable to this roster.
I’m estimating Fayne plays 72 games and registers 11 points.
Andrew Ference – Time is running short and Ference is aware of this. I have nothing to add that hasn’t already been said and there’s no point burying a man’s career while he is still trying to keep it alive.
I’ve projected 1 game, 0 points and believe he retires at some point this season.
Oscar Klefbom – The great hope of the Oilers blueline, Klefbom is, in some ways, more invaluable to this roster than even Connor McDavid. That isn’t a slight on McDavid, or entirely a compliment to Klefbom as the fact harbours within it some very strong censure for the Oilers’ management, past and present.
That being said, Klefbom’s DFF numbers are good. Very, very good. He dominated the metric against both elite and middle tier competition. In the elite category he rated higher, within a smaller sample size be warned, than any other defenceman I reviewed, including Giordano and Brodie. Against the middle tier competition he was nearly on par with Chris Tanev, once again registering the highest differential of any blueliner under consideration.
He is a damned good defenseman.
His IPP is an even 50, which means that 50% of the time a point is registered with him on the ice, he had a hand in making it so. That is an impactful blueliner.
Health is a concern, and likely will be until he can string together two 75+ game seasons. With that in mind I have estimated he plays 64 games, recording 22 points.
Adam Larsson – I’m not discussing the trade. We all know about it and we all have our opinions. Moving on.
Larsson is a very strong defender against middle tier competition but has been focused on playing elite level opposition for some time now with good results.
He brings very little by way of offense, but considering that he manages to restrict offense against surprisingly well. I don’t believe he is as strong a defender, all around, as Klefbom, but he is far superior in this one defensive aspect than any blueliner the Oilers have had in some time.
His handedness, right side, and skill set make him an ideal match on paper for Klefbom. If those two fashion a solid working relationship then the Oilers may have a true, NHL-worthy top-pairing D pair they can confidently put out against absolutely any opponent in the league.
I’m projecting Larsson plays 69 games with 19 points.
Darnell Nurse – If Peter Chiarelli hadn’t been hired by the team that already had Nurse, then the GM would likely have tried to trade for him. Nurse plays a style of hockey that has strong elements of what I believe Chiarelli is attempting to add.
Nurse doesn’t provide much in the way of offense and his defensive game is lacking, or perhaps still developing is a kinder way to say it. His DFF numbers illustrate a player who was given various assignments defensively over the course of the season but failed to find traction against any of them. That isn’t entirely damning for a rookie, but it is a note of caution.
Nurse will need a capable partner and a season to focus on bottom tier competition for the sake of his development. When evaluating Nurse by eye try to avoid letting his raw athleticism distract you from his decision-making and puck skills. I believe he has the tools to carve out a long, successful career, but he will have to learn to rely more on understanding the game and less on his own raw abilities. If he can mesh the two he could become an outstanding, and frankly terrifying, defender.
I’m estimating he plays 78 games with 12 points.
Andrei Sekera – This player stands almost alone on the Oilers’ blueline as a capable, veteran defender with a wide range of skills and no outright weakness save there being a modest limit on those same skills.
Sekera played reasonably well against elite competition, using the DFF metric, and thrived against the middle tier opposition. His failure resulted from a lack of capable partners and his own limitations. He can contribute offensively, though he is not typically a primary source of offense from the blueline.
Despite all those strengths and limitations, Sekera managed to post a nearly-even expected goals differential of 0.05 – on the blueline that the Oilers’ dressed last season, amidst a plague of injuries and other challenges, that is remarkable.
Sekera is a very good 2nd pairing defender and one who can carry a less-capable or limited partner. He can execute passing plays, skate the puck forward, handles opposition zone entries quite well and tends to make the correct read on the play more often than not.
I’m projecting him to play 76 games, recording 27 points.
Griffin Reinhart – While almost certain to begin the season in the AHL due to salary cap concerns, I am including Reinhart here because I believe he will earn a call-up and his play once here will justify keeping him.
He did not have a strong season, but showed himself capable of playing bottom tier competition quite well early in his development. Before we make any accusations regarding that assignment, Reinhart was one of only four Oiler defenders who managed a positive differential against the bottom tier. Only Giordano, Brodie, Tanev, Edler and Hutton managed the same amongst the other two teams under scrutiny. Griffin Reinhart is a developing NHL defender and I believe he will continue to improve.
Reinhart’s offensive contributions are virtually nil right now, but his expected goals for is actually fairly high at 2.58 (the highest amongst Oilers D) and his expected goals against is 2.53, meaning he has a positive differential in this regard. What it means is that he has the tools to help create situations that can lead to positive offensive chances, but needs to continue to improve on his ability to limit or mitigate those same chances against.
I’ve estimated Reinhart will play 40 games this season, as mentioned, largely due to cap concerns, and register 6 points.
Defense Call-Ups and Try Outs
Jordan Oesterle – Played well last season and has all the tools, including his mind, to succeed in the NHL. If he were blessed with another 5 inches height and 20 pounds of muscle and bone, he’d have made a name for himself long ago.
I’m estimating he plays 20 games, 4 points. His games played number could shoot up significantly in the event of injury as I believe he will be the first call-up after, or perhaps even ahead of, Reinhart.
David Musil – A decent prospect buried beneath a mountain of left-handed defenders with either a better draft pedigree or more varied skill set.
3 games, 0 points.
Dillon Simpson – Again, another good prospect buried beneath a mountain of left-handed defenders. Except Simpson appears to have a few different tools at his disposal. Both he and Musil are off-the-grid type prospects, they get forgotten in the discussion because they have been on the slow-path of development.
2 games, 0 points.
Joey Laleggia – His first AHL season appeared to go well. Laleggia has an advantage in being under a GM who saw Torey Krug arrive in the NHL. The slow play (development) is still the correct one here, in my opinion.
3 games, 1 points.
Goaltending
Cam Talbot – I don’t think it is overstating it to say that the Oilers’ season depends on no one quite so much as the health and performance of Cam Talbot.
Goaltending is a very tricky thing to try and predict. In fact, the act itself is almost pointless. But what I’ve worked out is a fair probability based on past performances.
I’ve got Talbot playing 60 games with a 0.920 sv% and a 2.4 GAA.
Jonas Gustavsson – Not nearly a good enough backup plan, but here we are.
16 games, 0.902 sv% and a 2.8 GAA. In other words, not good.
Laurent Brossoit – Has lots of potential, but needs time. I’m not entirely certain he’ll get it this season.
All the same, I’m estimating 6 games, 0.909 sv% and a 2.6 GAA.
Summary
The Oilers were torpedoed last season with a nightmarish scenario of injuries to an already undermanned roster. While I cannot predict a team’s injury status, the Oilers have been notorious for their high number of man-games-lost over the past ten seasons or so.
As a result, I have tried to reflect that in my estimates above and will do so again in my team estimates here.
I’ve worked out the following based on an estimate of total goals scored and approximate goals against.
The Oilers will score around 233 goals this season, that would rank them 7th in the league last year in a spot held by the Rangers.
That works out to a 2.84 goals per game average.
Their goals against average, based on the goaltending numbers above, comes out to 2.54 goals against per game, which would rank them 12th in the league last year, just ahead of the Flyers.
Those numbers are based entirely off of my projections for the team. What I cannot project are the impacts of injuries, so I have to try and account for that outside of my given data.
While the Oilers have an enviable stable of skilled players, what they lack is the necessary combination of experience and depth at those same positions (consider, their center depth is occupied by a 23, 20 and 19 year old). If they were to lose Larsson, Talbot and/or Nugent-Hopkins for an extended period they have virtually no sustainable redundancy for those specific roles within the roster and as a result their winning percentage would almost certainly drop, most precipitously if Talbot were to become injured.
If we assume the Oilers’ productivity remains about where I have it, and past evidence suggests that this is reasonable, then we could, safely I believe, assume that the weak point will be the goals against.
Specifically, if we take the games played by either backup goaltender and assume that the Oilers post a 0.330 win rate, and add that to a 0.56 winning percentage, equivalent to that of the Rangers last season who posted the same amount of offense, applied to the remaining games, we have a total number of games won at 41, or 82 points.
82 points last season landed Colorado and Montreal at 21st and 22nd overall, respectively.
I think we could mark 82 points as a cautiously optimistic result for this team, landing them 5th in the division and 10th in the conference, 21st overall.
That is as reasonable an expectation as I think we can have for this Oilers’ team, and would mark considerable improvement.
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