Preseason Predictions – Oilers 2016/2017 Part Two

For the last two seasons I have run preseason projections over at Flamesnation, first on the Flames then last season on the Canucks, Flames and Oilers. The idea being to compare the three teams as it looked like they would probably finish close to each other.

This year I have run those same projections on those same teams and am posting the Oilers’ results here on the Rig. Part one is here.

Please note, this is a mathematical exercise. I try to remain objective and neutral as best I can. Don’t like my estimates, no problem but understand this isn’t personal. I strongly encourage you to click through to the previous article and read my process if you haven’t already.

I’ve taken a wide assortment of statistical categories into account when researching each team, including shooting percentage, points per game, games played, TOI, IPP, PDO and more recently DFF% relative to competition (thanks to Woodguy and GMoney for their work in establishing this metric and their help in explaining to me), and expected goals for and against.

There are two player tables I’ll be referencing, one that has the accumulated stats, the other my point projections (click the image to enlarge).

Last time we ran through Draisaitl, Eberle, Hendricks, Kassian, Lander, Letestu, and Lucic. Today we begin with Patrick Maroon.

Patrick Maroon – Despite something of a Cinderalla finish to the season after he was acquired for a bargain price at the deadline, Maroon likely is not what we believe we saw last season – that is to say, an effective winger for McDavid’s line. Maroon can play responsibly against the bottom tier of competition but is not effective against the middle or elite tiers. It seems Todd McLellan recognized this and ensured that he spent 44% of his ice time against the bottom ranked competition.

That being said, Maroon can produce offense at a fair rate, his IPP sits only a few points away from that of Lucic, he just needs to do it against lesser competition. He is an effective forechecker, very useful on the power play, and can be a highly effective (affective?) agitator.

Maroon is a very valuable depth player to have, as evidenced by his 0.82 expected goals differential (that is, once again, in Lucic territory) and provided we recognize him for what he is and not allow ourselves to believe he can necessarily play at higher and higher levels of competition. This has long been a famous failure of the Oilers and so long as he is insulated by Pouliot and Lucic he should find himself in his natural position quite often.

I’ve estimated Maroon plays 72 games and posts identical production from last season, 27 points.

Connor McDavid – The key to Peter Chiarelli’s roster moves is the health and development of this phenomenal player.

McDavid’s metrics are breathtaking, even in the relatively small sample size that was last season.

He dominated elite level competition almost from the very beginning using the DFF metric, and ran an advantage across the board as an 18-year old rookie. That is impressive.

His IPP sits at 80%, again as a rookie and having only played just over half a season. His TOI is almost even with Nugent-Hopkins, implying that McLellan couldn’t find an excuse to keep the young man off the ice, regardless of the situation.

His shooting percentage is in the elite level, but we will have to watch to see if it regresses. It should be noted that players like Sean Monahan have retained similarly high shooting percentages across several seasons now.

McDavid’s expected goals differential is the highest on team (and by extension the highest across all three of the rosters I examined).

His point-per-game pace through an abbreviated season was 1.07, that is extraordinary for any player let alone a rookie.

Something to consider: McDavid’s PDO from last season was 990. Mathematically speaking, he could have done better.

I’m estimating Connor McDavid plays 75 games this season as he will be targeted by the opposition and is still developing as a young man and athlete. That said, I’ve projected him to improve slightly on his point-per-game rate to 1.1 and thus register 83 points.

I believe that to be a conservative estimate.

I am thankful for every day that Connor McDavid is a member of the Edmonton Oilers. He is a gift to all of hockey, but most especially to those who cheer for the Oilers.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – This summer Peter Chiarelli had a choice between Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He chose Nugent-Hopkins and it must be said that he likely made the right decision.

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid look to be phenomenal young players, but they need shelter and a 23-year old Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the Kevlar vest they wear to battle every night.

Nugent-Hopkins will always be shy offensively for those who focus on his draft pedigree, but he does bring offense and more importantly he can play a responsible two-way game against elite opposition. His DFF numbers suggest last season he did best against middle tier competition, but we also have a body of work that suggests he can improve on that.

The expected goals differential suggests that he gives up too many goals against, but when weighed against his TOI and most common level of competition I think this result is to be expected. His expected goals for is still respectable and worthy of being in the conversation of 1^st line centers around the league.

Despite all this it is doubtful Nugent-Hopkins will ever publicly receive fair appreciation for what he does on the ice.

This season he will be called upon to continue to provide shelter to Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the latter at least for awhile.

I’ve estimated Nugent-Hopkins plays 73 games this season recording 55 points.

Iiro Pakarinen – Pakarinen is an effective, and affordable, depth winger who can slide up as high as the 2^nd line provided he has strong linemates.

Or so we thought.

Pakarinen’s numbers are horrible. His shooting percentage is far too low for a player with his limited variety of skills. His defensive play isn’t nearly strong enough and his ability to contribute or control play against all tiers of competition is atrocious.

In all honesty the sooner the Oilers find a superior player for his role the better.

I’ve estimated he plays 40 games and records 10 points based on McLellan’s demonstrated stubbornness on players like this (Korpikoski being an example).

Benoit Pouliot – Ideally situated to play the LW in tandem with Milan Lucic, either on the 1^st or 2^nd line, Pouliot is a rare commodity for the Oilers, or at least he used to be, in that he was an effective two-way winger with speed, size, offensive punch, and a strong possession game based on sound defensive awareness.

Based on the DFF metric it would appear that Pouliot is most effective against middle tier competition, in fact he dominates in that area.

The addition of Lucic adds an element of redundancy with Pouliot’s game, but it isn’t a redundancy that speaks to inefficiency, but rather to strength. Should Pouliot go down to injury, which seems a fair bet based on history, the Oilers can fill in some of the gap with Lucic and Maroon for a time.

I’ve estimated Pouliot plays 69 games with 35 points.

Nail Yakupov – I despise the old clichés about enigmatic Russians for a number of reasons. Unfortunately, in Yakupov’s case that word seems quite apt, though not in the derogatory sense in which it is so often used.

Roundly criticized as a draft bust, Yakupov has some surprising traits in his favour once we begin to look.

He has a higher IPP share than Nugent-Hopkins at 66.7, or virtually 2 out of every 3 Oilers points that occur with him on the ice are those to which he has contributed.

He is a capable 2^nd line winger by way of the DFF metric, directing a greater share of potential offense at the opposition than he relinquishes.

I believe Yakupov’s ideal position is to play 2^nd/3^rd line opposition with strong linemates. I also believe that the best course of action for the fan base is to remove our preconceptions about what he ought to be based on draft rankings and focus instead on framing the player by what he can offer the roster, which is an affordable, offensive threat to play behind Jordan Eberle and who has power play potential.

Yakupov’s expected goals differential is where things get really intriguing. His expected goals for over 60 minutes is 2.5, or about in the range of Benoit Pouliot. His expected goals against over 60 minutes is an identical 2.5, meaning he essentially gives up as much as he creates. And it is this measure which reflects what I believe to be our fundamental frustration with the player – that he takes one step forward and one step back when it is our expectation that by dint of his draft pedigree and experience he should be producing more than he surrenders.

Contrast this with Benoit Pouliot, another high draft pick albeit not a 1^st overall, who struggled for years to develop a game that was sustainable sometimes in spite of the expectations of others.

I project Yakupov to play 72 games and register 35 points.

I also believe this could be the final 72 games of Yakupov’s career with the Oilers.

Forward Call Ups and Tryouts

Jesse Puljujarvi – The unexpected gift on draft day will likely spell the end of Nail Yakupov’s time in Edmonton.

I’m estimating Puljujarvi demonstrates elements of a more complete game than Yakupov has shown thus far and that Chiarelli prioritizes the young Fin.

I’ve projected him to play 52 games scoring 13 points.

Anton Slepyshev – Probably his last chance to make an impression. 10 games, 1 point.

Drake Caggiula – By all accounts a promising young player and I wonder if Chiarelli doesn’t have hopes of finding a new Brad Marchand or David Desharnais here. I’ve estimated he plays 8 games with 3 points.

Jere Sallinen – A history of production overseas, I’ve estimated 11 games played, 3 points.

Jujhar Khaira – It is often said that GMs aren’t terribly fond of their predecessor’s draft picks, but I suspect Khaira is one who might have caught Chiarelli’s eye. Large body, good skater, physically intimidating, he shows many of the qualities it appears that Chiarelli has decided to focus on adding to the roster. I’ve projected he plays 20 games, 2 points based on his playing style and size.

Taylor Beck – This player is intriguing, which is usually code for Oilers fans when they pin their hopes on some unknown player coming out of the shadows to bowl over the NHL. It almost never happens that way. He comes to the Oilers as a slightly older player with some NHL experience. I’ve estimated he plays 10 games, 3 points.

Tyler Pitlick – One day I’ll have to ask Lowetide what comes after the Last Chance Texaco, because that is where Pitlick finds himself. While injuries have essentially dominated his career thus far, it could also be said that but for his injury history he might no longer be with the organization. His bad luck has, coincidentally, afforded him one more chance to make it to the NHL.

I’ve projected him to play 3 games, 0 points.

*Addendum – All of the above was written well before the Kris Versteeg PTO contract and as such may vary from what we can expect coming out of camp. To that end I have run a quick estimation on Versteeg with the aim of determining what his most likely role will be and establishing a relative measure of expectation for him.

Versteeg’s numbers aren’t much different from those of Teddy Purcell over the length of their careers. They are very close in games played, total points (and thus point per game), and both play the right side. Versteeg is arguably more of a shooter than Purcell, though the shooting percentage of the new winger is a shade lower. Versteeg’s possession metrics are stronger than Purcell but it must be noted that he played easier competition than Purcell during his time here in Edmonton.

Versteeg is coming in to challenge for the 2nd line RW spot. Nail Yakupov’s spot, perhaps. To that end I also pulled Yakupov’s information for direct comparison and here is what I found.

Versteeg is a greater volume shooter than Yakupov, though both have a similar shooting percentage. Verteeg is a far superior player by the possession metrics, however he also benefited last season by playing with the Hurricanes’ top centers.

Take a look at the Vollman chart tracking Yakupov, Versteeg and Purcell from last season and the one tracking Versteeg and Yakupov’s career numbers season-by-season, below is a table that features a breakdown of the boxcars for each of the three (click on the images to enlarge):

Kris Versteeg is a journeyman winger who can effectively play 2nd and 3rd pairing minutes, scoring against middle to weak opposition and can be effective as a powerplay option.

It appears as though Peter Chiarelli has set that bar for Nail Yakupov. If he cannot surpass it then his entire NHL career is likely in doubt.

If Versteeg makes the team, I’d estimate he plays in the range of 60 games, scoring 34 points. Yakupov scored 33 points in the addled 2014-2015 season where he played all 82 games. His next closest was the abbreviated 2012-2013 season where he played 48 games scoring 31 points (a 0.65 ppg pace).

Versteeg and Yakupov are on something of a collision course. Perhaps the team finds room for both and sends Puljujarvi to the AHL. That would be the wise move and one that most observers would say is the most likely. However, the Oilers have long since exhausted our patience in giving them the benefit of the doubt in this regard so until proven otherwise I have to assume that this season it will be one or the other of the two wingers. Their production is more or less a saw-off at this point, so in the end it may not greatly alter the team’s results.

Next time we’ll examine the defense and goaltending and take a look at where the Oilers may end up at season’s end.