Adam Larsson vs the League

“Adam Larsson is only a top pairing defender in Edmonton”.

“The Oilers added Larsson for Schultz”.

These are quotes that seem to be thrown out a lot and I’m not sure why. Is it because people are trying to slant a trade into more hyperbole of imbalance, or is it just ignorance on people’s part?

The reality is Adam Larsson has been a top pairing defenceman and a fine one at that. Still, I find that people are putting Larsson down. He’s not as dynamic as PK Subban, so that comparison isn’t quite fair. Despite his minutes in New Jersey, Larsson comes to Edmonton as a second pairing option in the eyes of most fans.

However, I believe that Adam Larsson is a top pairing defenceman on almost half of the teams in the NHL. The basis for this little experiment is simple: I am comparing which teams around the league could use Adam Larsson as their top right-handed option.

Not surprisingly, it turns out that Adam Larsson is not only a top pairing defender in Edmonton. I used Rob Vollman’s Sledgehammer Charts as a basis for this little experiment; also Woodguy55’s post about Larsson back in July is some essential reading on this topic, as he goes deep into the number crunching.

The No Chance Teams of the League

The following teams all feature a defenceman who is simply better on the right side:

• Chicago (Seabrook)
• Carolina (Faulk)
• Colorado (Barrie)
• Dallas (Klingberg)
• Florida (Ekblad)
• Montreal (Weber)
• Nashville (Subban)
• Ottawa (Karlsson)
• Pittsburgh (Letang)
• San Jose (Burns)
• Tampa Bay (Stralman)
• Washington (Carlson)
• Winnipeg (Byfuglien)

Those thirteen teams have some of the game’s best defencemen on that right side. That’s no fault to Larsson as players like Burns, Karlsson, Doughty, Weber and Subban are all Norris candidates (or should be). Ekblad is a stud in Florida, looking wise beyond his years, and is only 20 years of age. I also gave some players the nod over Larsson here due to their offensive ability (such as Faulk, Barrie and Carlson).

HERO charts are great but do not tell the whole story with Adam Larsson. With a HERO chart, you see the player’s possession, and for Larsson it’s not a great number. However, the HERO chart does not explain the usage of Larsson as he faced the toughest competition in the league, and often in his own zone. The poor possession numbers could reflect a team that was poor in possession as well (New Jersey was not great for possession as a whole).

The Shoe-In Teams of the League

Larson could easily be a top pair RHD on the following teams:

• Anaheim
• Arizona
• Boston
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• NY Rangers
• New Jersey (duh)
• Philadelphia
• Toronto

It is important to note that five of those teams made the playoffs last year.

Anaheim has a great defensive core, but beyond Vatanen (who is better suited for second pair duty), the right side is thin. Larsson jumps in there with Hampus Lindholm. Arizona has a game breaker in Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but again, no right handed shot. An Ekman-Larsson – Larsson pairing would be fun for announcers alone.

Boston has Kevan Miller and Adam McQuaid as their top options on the right side. Detroit has an aging and declining Mike Green, while Minnesota has Jared Spurgeon, who is no slouch, along with Matt Dumba.

The Rangers have Marc Staal and a bad Dan Girardi. New Jersey, his former team, was where he was the top option, although Damon Severson should take the mantle, I give the nod to Larsson. The main reason: Severson had much easier zone starts and competition than Larsson did.

Philadelphia has some good prospects but no stud on the right side just yet. Finally, Toronto is rebuilding and set on the left with Morgan Reilly and Jake Gardiner, but have no real options on the right side.

Out of all those teams, I cannot see any defenceman that Adam Larsson could not beat for a spot in the top pairing.

The Maybe Teams of the League

These are the teams that are close for Larsson in terms of being the top right handed option. All of them can be up for debate.

• Buffalo
• Calgary
• Columbus
• NY Islanders
• Vancouver

I felt that Rasmus Ristolainen, who is a favorite for some, struggled last year in a heavier role with the Sabres. Maybe it was his partner being primarily Josh Gorges that brought him down.

For Calgary, right now their top options are two lefties in Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie. Dougie Hamilton is a good player, but is he a top pairing option right now? He’s played middle pairing minutes and was a disaster to start the year for Calgary in 2015-16. Larsson on the top pair would spread the wealth of their two lefties, forming a helluva top four.

Columbus is tough because you have David Savard and Seth Jones. I really like Seth Jones, even though he had a way softer time against opponents than both Larsson and Savard did.

The Islanders are an interesting one because they have a top pairing guy in Travis Hamonic. That said, I feel that Larsson is actually better than Hamonic. The Islanders also have Johnny Boychuk behind Hamonic, although I feel they can interchange. That’s a tough one.

Vancouver has Chris Tanev, who I feel is very underrated. He is easily Vancouver’s best defenceman heading into this season, head of the likes of Alex Edler and Erik Gudbranson. Tanev faced tough opponents and tough zone starts but came out looking solid. That’s a toss up, although I think Tanev could get a slight nod over Larsson.

What’s the Point?

Larsson is a top pairing option on more teams than the Edmonton Oilers or the New Jersey Devils. Larsson faced the toughest competition every night with Andy Greene and was mostly in his own zone.

I do agree that it is difficult to assess a player outside of a team like New Jersey, mainly because Andy Greene has been a subperb defenceman for many years. However, it’s a bit ridiculous to claim that Larsson would not be a top pairing defenceman outside of Edmonton and is only a slight upgrade over Justin Schultz.

There is a lot of pressure on Larsson to build up from last year on a new squad and take the reigns even without an established veteran partner. That said, I am optimistic regarding Adam Larsson. He is a defenceman that is hard to notice because he does all the little, yet crucial, parts of the game effectively. He’s not as flashy as PK Subban is, that’s for sure.

Instead, he’s a solid defenceman.