Tomorrow night, we begin. The Edmonton Oilers host the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place and, folks, we are off and running with the 2016-17 NHL season. Needless to say, this is an extremely important year for the Oilers. Failure to show improvement after an interesting summer will only apply more pressure to this organization.
This will be the second year under Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan, which means a step forward is the expectation. This club improved from 2014-15 to 2015-16, but it must do so again this season. It also goes without saying that a larger scale improvement needs to take place this season. I’m talking at least ten points better than last year.
The Off-Season:
At his year end press conference, Peter Chiarelli said that he would address the defense in a meaningful way. You and I might not like how we got here, but Chiarelli kept true to his words and addressed Edmonton’s defensive group in a meaningful way. Two NHL veterans were added to this group while one key contributor returns from injury.
Of course, you’ve heard about the big move, Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. That trade, to me, signaled the end of the rebuild that started in June of 2010 and it told me that June of 2015 is the new starting mark for this organization, the month McDavid was drafted.
That trade, however, turned the heat up on Chiarelli. Edmonton lost that deal in terms of value, but the club gained a very strong NHL defender. Chiarelli better be right about this deal, and if Edmonton’s defense falters again this season many will be irately looking back at this transaction.
Acquired: Jonas Gustavsson, Nick Ellis, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Mark Fraser, Jesse Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic, Drake Caggiula, Patrick Russell, Matt Benning, Kris Versteeg (PTO)
Departed: Taylor Hall, Adam Cracknell, Adam Pardy, Nail Yakupov, Luke Gazdic, Lauri Korpikoski, Rob Klinkhammer, Brad Hunt, Adam Clendening
I believe that Edmonton’s defensive group is much stronger than last year’s unit. Is it a great group? No, it’s not, but I think it CAN be a good one. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson have shown potential as a top-pairing and have looked strong during preseason play. I also think Russell can help this hockey team in the right role, and I’m big on Andrej Sekera.
Offensively, losing Taylor Hall is going to hurt this club. That said, Jesse Puljujarvi, Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg, if he signs, make this a deeper group that can do more things. That, quite frankly, is important.
The Big Questions:
1.) Where does the secondary offense come from?: We know that the Lucic-McDavid-Eberle line is going to produce a lot of offense for Edmonton this season. After that, however, where does the scoring come from? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Benoit Pouliot will team up on the second line and they should be able to take some of the load. If Leon Draisaitl joins that line, I think it’s safe to say that they produce at a high-level as well.
That said, I’d be more comfortable with Versteeg playing on that line. He’s a capable veteran and can produce offense. That would free up Leon Draisaitl to play with Patrick Maroon and, say, Jesse Puljujarvi on the third line. That would give Edmonton ample offense.
2.) Can Cam Talbot ride?: Cam Talbot struggled after the first four games of the NHL season last year. He went into a cold stretch that took him to the middle of December and it nearly cost Edmonton. Had it not been for Anders Nilsson’s strong play, the Oil would have been cooked well before they eventually were.
Can Talbot avoid that poor stretch early? The Oilers’ playoff chances might hinge on it.
3.) Who is this year’s Brandon Davidson?: Davidson stunned everyone last year be going from the eighth defender on opening night to arguably the team’s best rearguard by game 82. He’ll be a big part of this team in 2016-17, in fact I think he’s the defensive x-factor for Edmonton.
Who will follow in his footsteps and emerge this season? Drake Caggiula made a great case in preseason play that it will be him. The forward arguably played his way onto the roster and I wouldn’t be shocked if he saw top-nine minutes this season. Matt Benning is the likely candidate on the backend, in my mind.
A Projected Lineup:
So with all of the changes, obviously things look different on the depth chart. The following line combinations will not happen on opening night. Kris Versteeg is still injured and it’s quite possible he does not sign with the club before tomorrow. That said, I think he will sign with the club when healthy, so this depth chart reflects that.
Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Jordan Eberle
Benoit Pouliot – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Leon Draisaitl
Patrick Maroon – Drake Caggiula – Kris Versteeg
Tyler Pitlick – Mark Letestu – Zack Kassian
Anton Slepyshev, Matt Hendricks
Oscar Klefbom – Adam Larsson
Kris Russell – Andrej Sekera
Darnell Nurse – Brandon Davidson
Mark Fayne
Cam Talbot (Jonas Gustavsson)
The X-Factor:
So, who is the x-factor for the Edmonton Oilers this season? I wrote about that a few weeks ago, and I believe it is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. It isn’t the obvious pick, and I’m sure many will disagree, but I think Nuge is vital to any success that this club has this season.
Click the link above for my detailed reasoning, but if RNH returns to his 2014-15 form, aka being a strong offensive center who brings just as good defensive play, then Edmonton will have one of the top center duos in the entire NHL. Yes, that has extreme value and will help this club immensely.
The Prediction:
Overall, I think the Edmonton Oilers are a better hockey team than they were last year. Obviously, a healthy Connor McDavid and a healthy Oscar Klefbom go a long way in that regard. Both of those players missed large chunks of last season and both play major roles on this hockey club.
Adam Larsson is an infinitely better defender than Justin Schultz was, while Kris Russell is an improvement on some of the other players that played in Edmonton a season ago, mainly Griffin Reinhart, Adam Pardy, Adam Clendening and Mark Fayne.
While losing Taylor Hall hurts, I think Milan Lucic is a good bet to fill that hole effectively. I also think adding players like Versteeg (should he sign), Puljujarvi and Caggiula to replace guys like Yakupov, Cracknell and Korpikoski makes Edmonton better.
My line in the sand for this hockey club is 85 points this season. Anything below that mark should be considered a failure. When you have one of the best players in the world on your roster, you should be able to win some games. After the failures of recent years, I really don’t think 85 points is asking for too much.
My official prediction for this season is that Edmonton finishes with 88 points and misses the postseason. I believe this club will be improved in a big way due to health, continuity behind the bench, and the roster changes executed by Peter Chiarelli.
An 18 point improvement might be asking a lot, but I believe the Oilers are capable of it and I’m expecting them to be in the playoff race through the month of March.
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