The Advanced Stats Debate

I’m taking a break from the “Just Who Is” series tonight because I want to touch on a subject that had taken Oil Country by storm this week, the hiring of stats guru Tyler Dellow. Dellow’s hiring has sparked conversation about advanced stats and Dellow himself. Some fans, like myself, love the move, while others do not like it.

The Hiring:

Rumors started to swirl on Monday night when Dellow’s popular site, mc79hockey.com, went off-line. Those rumors only intensified when Bob McKenzie tweeted the next morning that Dellow had been hired by an NHL team, and he believed it to be the Oilers. A few hours later, the Oilers confirmed the move in a tweet.

The hiring is an interesting one, because Dellow is one of the biggest voices on social media that is constantly criticizing the Oilers and coach Dallas Eakins for the way they operate, and is a guy that the mainstream media, looking at you Spector and Gregor, do not like.

In his defense, Dellow’s criticisms of the Oilers have been more than fair, and in reality have been right. The Oilers didn’t employ enough players that could play a puck possession game, and the team did not use the right tactic this season in terms of their attack.

Dellow did some terrific work, which has sadly been lost, that breaks down certain things and finds ways to correct them. He did awesome work breaking down Taylor Hall’s zone entries in a series that took on the purpose of trying to figure out what was wrong with number 4’s entries.

Dellow’s a bright mind, and a pioneer for the advanced stats movement in the NHL. His work has touched on many different subjects throughout the years, and he’s broken down things from every aspect. If you read his stuff, you know it was a treat.

This move shows that the Oilers are in fact willing to take advanced stats into account. They hinted at this last summer when they mentioned the use of stats in the drafting of Marco Roy and the trade for David Perron, MacT’s crown jewel to this point. There’s evidence to suggest that these stats were used in the signings of Benoit Pouliot and Mark Fayne, as well as the trade for Teddy Purcell.

The Oilers using advanced stats in a great thing, because it is what the great teams do. Chicago has a whole team devoted to these, Kings GM Dean Lombardi mentioned the Kings use them, as did Bruins President of Hockey Operation Cam Neely.

Advanced stats is where the game is going in the front office, and for Edmonton to hire one of the brightest minds out there is a great move.

Why Stats Are Good:

A lot of people on social media rip stats, and a lot of people met the hiring of Dellow with some vicious and negative feedback. Many say that these stats don’t mean anything, and some say they are boring. I have no issue with people saying they are boring, in fact I can totally understand that. At first, I was turned off by these until I forced myself to read about them.

The non-important thing is false however. Stats are NOT the be all and end all, but they are a good evaluation tool. The best possession teams are usually the best teams overall, and the top of the Corsi charts is usually where the winners find themselves. Again, there are many factors here, but where you find good records you will find good stats.

Many people will point to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2013 and the Colorado Avalanche this past season as reasons why stats can’t be trusted. The Leafs fell off a cliff this past season as the stats finally caught up to them, and Colorado, who was awful in 2013, is a prime candidate to slip up this year. After all, they had some of the NHL’s best goaltending last year, just like those 2013 Leafs.

People will tell you possession numbers are overrated too, but the best players in the NHL are good possession players. There is a reason players like Shawn Thornton, Colton Orr, Frazer McLaren and Matt Kassian are losing their NHL jobs, because they can’t possess the puck.

These advanced stats are becoming a huge part of the game, as teams go to a more puck possession style game and try to get the upper hand on their opponents. It’s the evolution of the game really.

You’re Arrogant You Know, Stats Are not Everything:

I see this a lot on twitter and I have to say, you’re right when you say this. Stats are not everything, and the old school “eye-test” is still actually pretty important. One thing we must remember is moderation is key. You can’t be totally against stats, or else you will end up like Brian Burke’s Maple Leafs, but you can’t be all stats either, or else you’ll end up like the New Jersey Devils.

You still have to find guys that can put the puck in the net, guys that can set a tone, guys that bring size and skill, and guys that bring that leadership to a room. When I say setting the tone, I’m not talking guys like Gazdic (that’s a different debate on a totally different subject), but I’m talking guys like Dwight King and Bryan Bickell, big and tough guys that aren’t advanced stats freaks, but can play.

If you go all in, you’ll end up like the Devils, a team with a bunch of solid possession players, but not a single game-breaker on their roster. If you decide stats are useless, you’ll end up with Dave Bolland on your second line, because well truculence.

This side of the coin is just as right as the pro-stats side. You can’t base everything off stats, and there are just somethings that the eye-test and your scouts can only tell you.

The best teams in the NHL find a way to balance this out, using stats to their advantage but also using the old-school way.

The Wrap-up:

The advanced stats debate has been on my mind since Dellow’s hiring was made official by the Oilers, and the heated debate among the fans had me thinking. The truth is, everyone is right to a degree. Stats are in fact important and becoming a key tool in the evaluation process, but they are not everything, and they should not be treated as such.

The only way to attain success while using them is to use balance. It’s a very good tool, but it isn’t everything. Everyone needs to realize that.

The hiring of Dellow rubbed some fans the wrong way because of his twitter interactions with people over the years. I ask you to put that aside here and think of what this means for the Oilers. This is a failing team that is investing in an area where good teams have invested before. It’s something new, and while it won’t determine every move, it will be an added voice, and that’s important.

The Oilers are leaving no stone unturned and are trying everything to get better. Regardless of the name hired, people should view this as a solid. It can’t hurt to at least try and look into these stats.

After all, Dellow’s been doing work on and off for the team for close to a year anyways.