Was it Andy Greene? Fayne vs Larsson

In my last post I discussed how the numbers indicate Adam Larsson is a legitimate first pair shut down guy. Dave, one of the godfathers of theoilersrig.com, sent me a text where he worried that Larsson may be another Mark Fayne; a player whose stats and underlying numbers look good coming from New Jersey but the reality of the player with an orange drop on his chest may be drastically different. Both players were acquired by the Oilers after a good season in New Jersey paired primarily with Andy Greene. Does this mean history is destined to repeat itself? Is Andy Greene single handily creating mirages for Edmonton management which is leading the Oilers to ruin? I responded to Dave by stating, “difference is Larsson is 23 (years old) with pedigree. People forget he was in the conversation for first overall in 2011.” After taking the evening to soak in Dave’s concern I thought it would be a good question to dig into.

For this comparison I used the same statistical categories which I looked at for my last post on Adam Larsson. Larsson’s represent last season and were taken from NHL.com. Fayne’s, also taken from NHL.com, represent his totals from the 2013-14 season which was his last in New Jersey. I also checked behindthenet.ca to ensure that both players were primarily paired with Andy Greene for the season referenced. Here are the numbers:

Physically, there is virtually no difference between the two former Devils. Both are 6.03, roughly the same weight, and are right handed. However, these two should not be confused as being the same player. Mark Fayne was already 27 years old when he left New Jersey. He had played a full four years in the NCAA at Providence College which was followed by parts of four season with the Devils. He played 242 games over that span where he averaged 0.20 points per game.

As a former 5th round pick, #155 in 2005, Fayne did not enter the league with huge fanfare. Consider his scouting report from the Hockey News:

This report aptly describes the player we have witnessed in Edmonton. Unfortunately, he wasn’t the primary shutdown player Edmonton was hoping for when they signed him.

Larsson is coming to Edmonton at only 23 years old; he is just over four years younger than Fayne was when he signed in with the Oilers. At 27 years old the odds are pretty good the player has become what he will be in the NHL. On the other hand 23 year old defensemen have room to grow. That is especially true when you have the pedigree of a former 4th overall selection like Larsson. Many forget he was in the conversation to be the first overall pick in 2011. Prior to playing a full season with the Devils in 2015-16, Larsson had been up and down between New Jersey and Albany since his draft year playing a total of 274 NHL games (32 more than a 27 year old Fayne). Here is the scouting report on Adam Larsson from the Hockey News:

The current book on Larsson is what my post showed yesterday that Larsson has the ability to be a big minute first pairing defender with some upside added in.

Scouting reports and draft rankings aside, we should look at both both Fayne’s and Larsson’s final seasons in New Jersey prior to coming to Edmonton. As a 27 year old playing primarily with Andy Greene during the 2013-14 season Mark Fayne started 47.56% of his shifts in the offensive zone. His shot attempt differential (SAT/Corsi) was +181 on a team with a +523 shot attempt differential and a +2 goal differential for the season. He averaged 18:18 of ice time per game with 0:02 seconds of average power play and 1:59 of average short handed time. He averaged 0.15 points per game and gave the puck away 32 times in 72 games played.

Last season as a 23 year old Adam Larsson played primarily with Andy Greene. He started a mind-numbing 31.82% of his shifts in the offensive zone which placed him first among league defenders in this category. His shot attempt differential looks poor at -230 but when you consider New Jersey’s season shot attempt differential was -454 and the Devils season goal differential was -24 the number is actually not as bad as it appears. It should be noted that Andy Greene’s shot attempt differential was -276 in 2015-16 and a mirror image of +276 while playing with Fayne in 2013-14. Larsson averaged 22:30 minutes of ice time per game and saw 0:10 on the power play and 3:20 while New Jersey was short handed (good for 4th in the league among defensemen who played more than 60 games). The big Swede averaged 0.22 points per game over his 82 games played.

So will Larsson end up being another Mark Fayne in Edmonton?

I would say it is unlikely that history repeats itself here for a number of reasons. Larsson, despite being four years younger when comparing each player’s final season in New Jersey, played immensely tougher minutes than Fayne. It is evident from New Jersey’s shot attempt differential when comparing the two seasons (+523 vs -454) that the Devils were a much poorer team overall in 2015-16 than they were in 2013-14. This was likely the reason for the brutal zone starts given to Larsson and Greene. The team they were on was much poorer than their record indicated (38-36-6) and the coaching staff had no other choice than to lean hard on the pair.

The final factor is that Larsson is still developing and has the potential which goes along with being a 4th overall pick. It is fairly convincing that he played tougher minutes that Mark Fayne in New Jersey so the question of whether or not he can handle tough defensive minutes the less risky one. As you can see from the chart above he out performed Andy Greene in several categories and held his own in the others. This wasn’t exactly the case for Mark Fayne. For me the bigger question is whether or not the, “oozes all-round ability” and “a little upside,” mentioned in the scouting report from the Hockey News ends with Larsson becoming a bonafide #1 defenseman or a good defensive #2 shutdown guy. The numbers indicate the latter, which is fine considering the Oilers depth chart, however the acquisition cost hopes for the former. Either way, the Oilers didn’t acquire another Mark Fayne but rather a player who is better right now and still developing.

Side Notes

I was texted this video by Brody over at oilersaddict.com. If this doesn’t pump you up about the Lucic signing nothing will.

Speaking of Oilers Addict, I posted a poll over there the other day asking “Are the Oilers better or worse than they were on June 20th?” If you’d like to respond go here.

Also, a great pic I was texted last week (if you haven’t seen it already):