As Hall Goes….

Disclaimer: I’m no mathematician, and the data I have in front of me is very raw and probably unrelated to anything and also quite potentially useless. However, I keep staring at these numbers, knowing (hoping?) that there’s something there. At least I’m trying. (In short, Will Hunting and I have nothing in common.)

This season, like most Oilers seasons in the last decade, has been full of ups and downs. Connor McDavid is an Oiler (!) and the hopes of the fan base were thrust onto his shoulders. Unfortunately for McDavid and for Oilers fans, those shoulders couldn’t withstand the pressure, and McDavid’s left clavicle folded like a cheap tent when he crashed into the boards at home against the Flyers back in November. He’s been out of the lineup since, and is slated to return (barring a horrendous setback) on February 2nd.

It was immediately obvious that Connor McDavid is a special kind of talent. His speed is otherworldly, his vision on the ice is probably unparalleled, and, when he’s on the ice, is better than everyone out there. Because so much of this season’s potential offensive production was ultimately focused on McDavid, other Oilers skaters were forgotten in the shuffle.

Fortunately, the Oilers are not short on smaller, skilled forwards and this season has been (according to national media, at least) a bit of a breakout year for Taylor Hall. Obviously they have no idea about his 80 point season in 2013-14 (made all the more impressive when you realize he scored 80 in 75 games, and was on a Dallas Eakins-coached team that only won 29 games).

This season has been an adventure of sorts. The Oilers posted a 6-game win streak in early December and looked poised to make a legitimate playoff push. (Instead they held a playoff spot for approximately 24 hours, and haven’t seen a sniff of that since.) They’ve also recorded seven losing streaks of at least 3 games (for a total of 24 games). In those games, Taylor Hall registered a measly 9 points. When he gets at least one point, however, the Oilers fare much better.

So how significant is Hall’s point production relative to the team’s success? In a word: very.

This season, Hall is on pace to play all 82 games (knock wood) and score 79 points. He is scoring in just over 50% of the Oilers’ games, and is still playing at almost a point per game, despite being on a team at the bottom of the standings for yet another year.

Over the 47 games he’s played, he’s tallied 45 points and is a significant contributor relative to the team’s offensive output. In games he doesn’t get a point, the team’s record is 5-13-4, and in games he does, the Oilers are playing above .500 hockey (14-10-1). He’s had 12 multi-point games including 4 points against the Rangers, and 3 points on six separate occasions. Keep in mind, he’s only scored in 25 of the 47 games the Oilers have played, and was in a bit of a slump, with only 3 points in his last 10 games prior to last night’s game against Florida.

But in those 25 games he HAS scored in, he’s registering points at pace of 1.80 per game (in comparison, Jamie Benn is scoring at 1.75 ppg, and Patrick Kane is at 1.68ppg in games that they score in). Hall has had a hand in 40.5% of all Oiler goals so far this year (Benn is at 36% in Dallas, and Kane is at an astounding 49% in Chicago). It’s not really fair to make these comparisons, given that both the Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks are posting winning records and are at the top of the Western Conference, but it stands to reason that without Taylor Hall, the Edmonton Oilers would be in a bigger world of hurt than they already are.

Perhaps the most significant takeaway is this: Taylor Hall is very good at hockey. Without looking into possession numbers, it is clear that while Hall’s point production might be elevated in some cases due to a pronounced lack of offence from other players on the team, he’s also a consistent part of the team when it comes to carrying that offensive load. Over his career, he’s been a fairly important part of the Oilers offensive production (except for last season when he missed 29 games and wasn’t healthy for most of the games he did play). He’s 34th overall in aggregate league scoring since he started in 2010-11, and has somehow managed to produce at this pace (0.890 ppg) while being on a team that has never finished above 23rd overall.

Popular opinion on Hall is divided, mostly for reasons I’ll never understand. But to hear people talking about trading him is ridiculous. Without Hall, this team would be going nowhere fast. Instead, there’s been improvement and the Oilers are (still, somehow) in a place to contend for a playoff spot out of the Pacific. Here’s hoping he can put together a bit of a point streak in the next couple weeks and erase all doubt.

As Taylor Hall goes, so do the Oilers.