Bi-Polar

The Oilers lost games early where they dominated play and now have won a game versus the Capitals they probably should have lost. The analytics told us the team was likely better than their start, however, wins matter and shot and zone tracking don’t directly earn points in the standings.
After eight consecutive losing seasons, fans want points not an effort badge.

After two straight wins the mood of fans has been elevated. Talk of firing the coach or GM is quieter and the volume knob for calls to trade everyone, including the stick boy, has been turned down; if the Oilers lose to Carolina tonight it will be cranked back up to ten. This is the bi-polar nature of a passionate fan base. It is not logical or rational, but neither is playing the part of a fan. It’s an exercise based on emotion; emotions which are at times extreme and bring out the passion of the community.

Do two straight wins mean that all of the sudden the team is fixed? Of course not. The holes at centre and defence remain and the team is still below .500. As well as Scrivens played against Washington, he will find his centre. He’s not as bad as what he showed to start the season, however he is unlikely to be able to steal games on a nightly basis.

The roster still needs to be balanced as well. A bottleneck on the wings and thin everywhere else. It is a composition which hasn’t produced results for a number of years and while the team may be improved, until the holes are filled it’s unlikely the team will move into a playoff position.

Does the team necessarily have to trade Eberle? No, however at some point, to move rebuild version 100 along, the team will need to part with a valuable asset. Waiting for more prospects only wastes years off of some cap friendly deals for Hall, Eberle, and RNH. Trading prospect X, a guy with an expiring contract, or a second round pick (or a combination thereof) won’t produce a player who will have a significant impact unless that asset is packaged with one of the current untouchables (2015 first round pick, Eberle, etc.). Could they look at moving this year’s first rounder? Depends on the return; given the depth and names available at the top of the 2015 draft class, the Oilers would need a home run. Whatever the team decides to do, or whoever the decide to move, something of the high profile variety will have to go.

The team could wait for Nurse or Klefbom to evolve to be the top pairing they need. The time-line for defencemen of this type developing is anywhere from 2-5 years and has no guarantee. The team could also wait on Draisaitl and to a lesser extent Yakimov and Khaira. Again, a process which could take years with no guarantees. How much of Hall’s contract will be elapsed when the process has any fruit to bear? If the balance and quality of the roster isn’t improved and the Oilers continue to be out of the playoff picture, how likely is it that Hall will resign before his UFA status kicks in? How about RNH?

Of course as a fan I reserve my right to follow my bi-polar nature and change my opinion at a moment’s notice if the team continues to win (or even play slightly above 500 hockey).