Brandon Davidson – Long Time Running

This article is part of a series on tracking Zone Transitions (Zone Exits and Zone Entries Against) for Oilers defencemen. The last post is here.

For those unfamiliar with Zone Exits, please see my first article. Briefly, Controlled Zone Exits refer to carrying or passing it out of the defensive zone (as compared to dumping it out or missing the exit pass). Controlled Zone Exits are far more likely to result in an attack into the offensive zone than Uncontrolled Zone Exits.

Zone Entries Against are elaborated on here. Teams that allow more Controlled Zone Entries (the other team passes or carries the puck in) tend to give up more shots than teams that force the opposition to dump it in.

I tracked the last 11 games of the season and then went back to sample games from earlier on. So far, I’ve tracked 30 games across the season.

Brandon Davidson – It’s Been A Long Time Coming

Brandon Davidson took the scenic route to the NHL. Bruce McCurdy had a fantastic interview with him back in 2011, which highlights his late start to hockey and path in his pre-draft years.

Before we look at his zone transitions, I think it’s worth looking at his hockey development since his first draft eligible season and compare it to a couple other notable Oiler prospects.

This last year, while Darnell Nurse was in over his head in the NHL, Brandon Davidson would have been playing his over-age year for the Regina Pats! If Nurse followed Davidson’s path, he wouldn’t see his first NHL action until 2019! In fact, Davidson actually has fewer NHL games played right now than Darnell Nurse. As for Reinhart, at this same point in his career, Davidson had his AHL rookie season derailed by testicular cancer and had to work his way back up post-treatment through the ECHL. Following the Davidson trajectory, Reinhart wouldn’t see NHL action until 2018.

Of course, as high first round picks, I’m not suggesting that Reinhart and Nurse should be following Davidson’s career trajectory, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the path to the NHL is not always a short one.

Zone Exits – Well Worth the Wait

Where did all those development years get us? Is Davidson just a bottom-pairing success story of overcoming obstacles or is there a future even higher up the order? Let’s start by looking at Zone Exits.

I have tracked 14 of Davidson’s games spread out over the course of his season. This is about 27% of his games played, which is a little lower than I would like but it is the best I can do right now. It still should give us a good idea of his ability. (As with the Klefbom article, raw numbers are at the end of the post. Also, only defencemen with at least 5 games tracked are in the charts.)

This first chart looks at the percentage of zone exits made with control.

Davidson looks pretty strong here. He’s behind Oesterle, who appears to be elite in this skill set in the games I tracked. He’s around the level of Nurse, which is a bit misleading in terms of puck-moving ability. Nurse actually gets a disproportionate number of his zone exits via carrying the puck out as opposed to passing it out. (This is something I’ll touch on in a future post.)

However, if we convert the Controlled Exit Percentages to a “per 60” rate, we get a getter idea of how often Davidson is getting the puck out with control. “Total Exits / 60” is how often the defenceman gets it out of the zone in any manner (controlled or uncontrolled). “Exit Assists / 60” is how often the defenceman makes the primary pass before a Zone Exit. For example, if Davidson passes it up to a forward who then gets it out of the zone, Davidson gets an “Assist” on the Zone Exit.

Brandon. Davidson. With data from 30 games over the course of the season, Brandon Davidson gets the puck out of the zone with control more frequently than any other defenceman, even Oesterle. If you look at Total Zone Exits, Davidson is second to Sekera in getting it out of the zone in any manner. When it comes to making the primary assist on a Zone Exit, Davidson is second only to Klefbom.

When the puck is in the defensive zone, Brandon Davidson gets it the hell out of there and he usually does it with control. Brandon Davidson is an excellent puck-moving defenceman.

Zone Entries Against – We Don’t Go Anywhere, Just On Trips

So what about keeping the puck out of the zone? I called Klefbom “Dreamy” for preventing zone entries against top opposition (hat-tip to @Woodguy55 for coming up with the name) and Sekera “The Grey Wizard” for his effectiveness at the same. Meanwhile, Oesterle (The Zone Exit King) was notably poor at letting the opposition into the zone with control. How about Davidson?

The following chart looks at how each defenceman defends against zone entries. Carries Against are carries or passes into the zone where the other team maintains possession. Forced Dump-ins occur any time the defenceman forces the other team to lose possession as they enter the zone. Defencemen who prevent the opposing team from entering the zone at all get a Zone Denial. Remember, these are only counted when a defenceman is specifically targeted on a zone entry, not for any entry into the zone. The chart is sorted from lower to higher Carries Against.

Brandon Davidson is right there, just behind Dreamy and The Grey Wizard. His Denied Zone Entries are pretty good too.

If we look at that same data but as a per 60 rate…

He still holds the same spot. Brandon Davidson prevents Controlled Zone Entries better than most Oilers defencemen and is in the same ballpark as Actual Top Four NHL Defencemen Oscar Klefbom and Andrej Sekera.

Combine this with the Zone Exit work he does and Brandon Davidson might be the most complete defenceman the Oilers have.

Puck Retrievals – He Pulls It In

As I introduced in the Klefbom post, I’ve also been tracking Puck Retrievals under pressure. A “successful recovery” is when the defenceman collects the puck and either gets it out of the zone or passes it to a teammate (maintaining possession). An unsuccessful recovery is when the defenceman closest to the puck either fails to get the puck at all or gives it away in the defensive zone under pressure.

Again, Davidson is near the top, behind only Dreamy and well clear of Fayne behind him. Off a dump-in, it is awfully hard for the other team to get the puck back from Davidson.

Competition – You Work Me Against My Friends

I’ve been tracking how much time on ice each defenceman plays against the top point producing forward on the other team. (TOI is 5×5 only, as is the case for all the data in this post.)

Klefbom took on the top opposition, playing nearly half his time on ice against the opposing team’s top forward. His partners before injury were mostly Fayne and Schultz. Sekera took his role after injury, but was never hard-matched to the extent Klefbom was. Meanwhile, Gryba spent less than a quarter of his time on ice against the top offensive forward. Davidson is right in the middle. However, that number is a bit misleading.

In the 14 Davidson games I tracked, he spent 3 of them partnered with Klefbom or Sekera. The other 11 games he played with a hodgepodge of other defencemen. Mostly this was Gryba (7 games) but he spent all or parts of games with Schultz, Pardy, Reinhart, Nikitin and Fayne. There’s a distinct split when you look at those 3 games with Klefbom and Sekera separately.

Davidson clearly played the top competition with Sekera and Klefbom, facing the opposing team’s top offensive forward for more than half of his even-strength TOI. This compares with only facing the top forward for a quarter of his TOI when paired with anyone else (which would place him in Gryba territory).

In those games playing the top forward, Davidson was getting the puck out with control at a much lower percentage and frequency. Playing on the 3^rd pairing, Davidson was kicking ass and taking names. Against top competition, he was just average. (He was also playing on the right side, but he did not look as poor playing the right side on the 3^rd pairing in two games with Nikitin and Pardy.)

Now, we’re talking about three games, so I don’t mean to make too much of it. However, the split was so striking that I thought I’d share. It’s also worth noting that his Zone Entries Against were not all that different in those games (in fact, they were slightly better). It’s just something to watch for next year, depending on the role he plays.

Summary – I Would Say You’ve Been Told

Brandon Davidson shouldn’t be in the NHL. He had a late start to hockey, played Midget AAA in his first draft eligible year, was a walk-on for his WHL team, a late round draft pick, went back to play Junior for an over-age year, had a key development year interrupted by cancer treatment and is a left-shot defencemen on a team full of them. He’s the long-shot of long-shots and took seven years to go from draft eligible to regular NHL shift.

Yet, he is here.

And he’s good at freaking everything.

In the games I tracked, Davidson was a legitimate puck-moving defenceman, getting the puck out with control (or otherwise) at a higher rate than any other Oilers defenceman. He was also quite effective at making the smaller pass to get it up to a forward and out of the zone. He defended zone entries at a rate close to that of Klefbom and Sekera. He recovered the puck off dump ins better than anyone but Klefbom. He was a true complete defenceman. The only knock on him is that he has 63 games of NHL experience and most of that is in a 3^rd pairing role.

We can’t pencil him in as a top 4 defenceman at this point. However, for the first time in what feels like forever, the Oilers have a defenceman who is kicking the jams out of his 3^rd pairing role and may not be over his head moving up to the second pairing in case Klefbom or Sekera get injured.

It’s been a long time running, Brandon Davidson. It’s well worth the wait.

Raw Data

Time On Ice pulled from OilersNerdAlert where available and from Natural Stat Trick to fill in the gaps.