On Sunday, the Edmonton Journal looked into Penguins’ center Brandon Sutter and his fit in Edmonton, mainly because of a report coming from a Penguins blog, Pens Labyrinth, that stated the Oilers were watching on the center’s contract situation.
Sutter is currently a restricted free agent, and is looking for a one-year contract from the Pens. He elected to not take the club to arbitration, and is hoping to work out a deal with the team on his own. On top of this, he has been offered a number of different contract options to re-sign, including a lengthy option that gives the former Canes’ center some stability.
The Player:
Brandon Sutter is a legit NHL center, and has proven his worth over the years in both Pittsburgh and Carolina. He’s a guy that plays third line minutes behind Crosby and Malkin, and is a guy that plays with, well, let’s just say lesser linemates on a regular basis.
Offensively, Sutter produces at a bottom-six rate, and doesn’t immediately answer Edmonton’s need for a second line center. He scored only 26 points in 81 games this year, and managed only 19 in 48 games during the 2013 season. His two years in Pittsburgh have been underwhelming in this regard.
In Carolina, he scored 30 points in 81 games in 2011-12, and added 29 points in 82 games in 2010-11. It’s clear that this is a player with some offensive issues, and is a guy that likely caps out in the 30-35 points a year range. That’s low from a second line center, so it’s safe to say he’s below average for the role offensively.
Possession wise, he isn’t much better. He posted a 42.9% Corsi For this past season, and posted a 42.4% mark in 2013. That’s not very good, and he was playing on one of the best team’s in the NHL. Now, circumstance does play a role here, as Sutter was playing a shut-down role to a degree and was playing with some pretty bad teammates. Still, this is not a pretty picture.
Sutter does provide value on special teams however, as he played both on the PK and PP for the Penguins the last two seasons, and did the same in Carolina prior to being traded off in 2012.
He’s a durable player, as injury hasn’t found him during his career. He’s missed only two regular season games the last four seasons, and is a guy you can count on to be on the ice each and every night. He’s got average size at 6’3” and 190 pounds, and is still at a good age at only 26 years old.
The Hockey News calls him as player that plays a mature game with two-way tendencies and is more of a defensive center than anything. His stats would certainly suggest that this scouting report holds true, and that he is more of a shut-down center or two-way guy than anything else.
The Ransom:
Brandon Sutter is a proven NHL forward on a team with depth issues. Yes, the Penguins are loaded with front end talent, but the team has been lacking depth for years. That was addressed to a degree this off-season with some signings, but it is still an issue. The Penguins are going to need legit NHL help in return for Sutter, not prospects or picks.
The Penguins’ blue-line has been in rough shape the last few years, and is undergoing transition. Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen are both gone, and Christian Ehrhoff comes in, but a hole still remains. Jeff Petry, a pending UFA, could be of interest here.
Up front, David Perron was speculated by Bruce McCurdy of the Cult of Hockey blog, and could be a realistic ask by the Penguins, who desperately need wingers to play with Crosby, Malkin, Marcel Goc and Nick Spaling down the middle. Nail Yakupov or Jordan Eberle could be asked for too, but there would need to be more going the other way.
The Contract:
Sutter’s previous cap hit was $2.066 M per season, but he made at total of $2.7 M last year. He’ll likely be looking for a slight step up from that, and be looking for an average annual number somewhere in the $3-$3.5 M per year range. For a guy that only puts up about 30 points a night and has terrible underlying numbers, that’s a lot of cash.
Sutter wants a one-year deal and is not looking for long-term stability right now, as he is closing in on unrestricted free agency, which makes him a huge risk. Even if he does pan out and become a solid all-around player, he’ll likely make a ton of money on the open market very soon. That makes me weary to give up a big asset for him.
If you want to take away some of those UFA seasons, you’ll have to overpay, and then you are paying for promise rather than production. It’s an ugly spot to be in right now.
The Verdict:
To me, Brandon Sutter screams third line center. His offensive numbers are in line with that of a third liner, as are his ice time totals and usage on special teams. His underlying numbers are not very good, and his contract situation is a mess. On top of that, the Penguins will likely be asking for quite a bit for his services, more than his worth.
The Oilers want three scoring lines, which means line three will be a soft-minutes line that has a great chance to put up offense each night. I’d rather Leon Draisaitl or Mark Arcobello play in that role than Sutter. Sutter’s numbers do not indicate a second line center option, and I’d rather the Oilers tried Arcobello in that spot.
Sutter is a legit NHL player, but he does not fill the hole Edmonton currently has on the second line. The Oilers shouldn’t be moving assets for players that don’t fill the appropriate holes, and should pass on Sutter.
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