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EAGLES VS. RAVENSSunday, December 18 | 1:00 pm EST |
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Suddenly the Eagles find themselves in the “roadblock” position to deny the Baltimore Ravens a shot at the AFC North division title.
At 7-6, the Ravens would have to beat the Eagles this Sunday, then go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers on Christmas Day if they are to have any realistic chance at all to make the playoffs.
The talk-show scuttlebutt I’ve been hearing on the airwaves suggests most Ravens fans are looking past the Eagles game as a sure home victory for their Dirty Birds. They seem to have a very unrealistic picture of just how good Carson Wentz can be when he gets consistent support from the people around him on offense. They also seem to underestimate the Eagles defense and special teams.
Local and national media analysts agree with the Ravens fans.
“No rookie quarterback has ever beaten a John Harbaugh-coached team at M&T Bank Stadium, and the Eagles are 0-6 when rushing for fewer than 100 yards,” wrote FoxSports.com’s Peter Schrager. “Up against the Baltimore front seven? With Jimmy Smith in the lineup or not, I don’t see it [Philly beating the Ravens].”
And then there’s a lot of comments like this: “Joe Flacco and Co. are usually a little too unbalanced; that could work in Baltimore’s favor in Week 15,” wrote Bleacher Report’s Chris Simms. “Philadelphia just doesn’t have the cornerback depth to run with speedsters like Breshad Perriman and Mike Wallace. Flacco will have a field day.”
Maybe the Ravens fans and impartial “experts” are correct in writing off the Eagles in this one.
But to his credit, Ravens HC John Harbaugh (and former Eagles assistant coach for ten years) is preaching a different sermon to his troops:
“It’s a very good Eagles team that we are playing on a short week,” Harbaugh said. “We’ve got to get healthy and we’ve got to get rested and we’ve got to get prepared. We’ve got to go play our best football this Sunday in M&T Bank Stadium. We are going to need our crowd man, we are going to need our crowd in full force, because we are making a run for the AFC North title and it starts with this game. We have to win this game.”
The Ravens are currently 5.5-point favorites heading into this game, but I can give you a few reasons why I think the Eagles can win on Sunday:
—The Ravens’ best cover cornerback Jimmy Smith is most likely out after he sprained his right ankle against the Patriots. With Smith healthy and in the lineup, the Ravens have an average-to-slightly-above-average secondary. Without him, they are undermanned and below-average.
“Jimmy is a big part of our defense, we know that,” safety Lardarius Webb added. “But also we preach the next man up around here. Shareece Wright can come in and do the job.”
It’s good to support a teammate—but fact is, Jordan Matthews could have a field day against Shareece Wright. Now it could be rookie Tavon Young (Temple!) and Wright on the outside with veteran Jerraud Powers patrolling the nickel spot. That’s good news for Eagles receivers and for Carson Wentz.
—The Ravens’ kick and punt return game is a shambles right now. They just cut Devin Hester who, although probably a future Hall-of-Famer, had lost all feel for fielding a kickoff or a punt. Likely the Ravens will insert the up-and-down veteran Michael Campanaro to field kicks and punts the rest of the way. I expect Campanaro to be tentative out there and allow a lot of punts to bounce away, which could lead to some great field position opportunities for the Eagles.
—The Ravens offense has been extremely one-dimensional lately, with very little push in the running game. Joe Flacco is most effective passing when he can work off of play action—but without a run game to hold the linebackers and corners in, his receivers are struggling to get separation in their routes. His favorite receivers this year are TE Dennis Pitta and WR Mike Wallace—but as New England showed on Monday night, you can take his favorite targets out of play by rushing only 3 linemen and dropping linebackers back into coverage, or even substituting a linebacker for a rush guy and dropping a defensive end back to mix things up. Flacco inevitably will check down to one of his backs, or throw a short sideline route to Steve Smith Sr. You take away the middle of the field on Flacco, you can beat him. He may challenge you over the top from time to time with Wallace or the young speedster Breshad Perriman, but the Eagles should have the coverage on the back end from their safeties to deal with that.
—The Ravens’ desperation to run the ball can play right into the strength of the Eagles’ defensive line: ”There’s no doubt we’re going to have to run the ball, especially if teams are going to go out and play two high [safeties] against us like the Patriots did,” Flacco said. “We’re going to have to be able to hand the ball off and get yardage out of it. Then, it’s going to get our play-action game going a little bit more and make it that much better.”
Right—but I don’t think the Ravens’ offensive line as presently constituted can get the push it needs to get against the Eagles’ front four. The early battles at the LOS should favor the Eagles defensive line and linebackers, in my opinion. Watch for some early scrums and possible strip-fumbles as the Ravens running backs (Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon) struggle for yards that aren’t there.
—If the Eagles can get off to a fast start against the Ravens on Sunday, say something like 16-3 at the half, they will take the Ravens crowd right out of the game. The place is very loud when the Ravens are winning, but usually falls silent when the team is down. That’s because Ravens fans are among the most spoiled fan bases in the NFL. When things don’t go their way (as they have for most of the team’s home games since 2000), their fans haul butt out of the park early.
That’s why they play the games—the Ravens will have to earn this one, and nothing will be handed to them by the Eagles, who at 5-8 are more capable of doing damage than their record indicates.
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