(Author’s Note: Consider this post a Monday Morning Pick-Me-Up. Sure, the Oilers lost, and it was awful but…)
Connor McDavid is the best player in the NHL, and it’s not even close.
He’s also 19 years old(!).
Be not afraid of greatness, Oilers fans. In fact, get used to it, celebrate it, sit back and enjoy it, because hockey greatness has a home, and for the first time in a long time, that home is Edmonton.
Food for the Eyes
In these days of the developing analytics movement, we’re learning to receive what our eyes see with a generous helping of skepticism. This works both ways, of course; some players look awful, or unimpressive, but are, in measurable, objective ways, effective hockey players. Others look like all-world talents, but in terms of what they actually accomplish with all that ability, they leave much to be desired.
Enter Connor McDavid.
Don’t doubt your eyes, don’t watch with skepticism. Don’t refrain from relishing his ability until you’ve seen the numbers. He’s every bit as good as he seems to be, and probably better.
I’m no stats expert – there are many in the Oilogosphere who are, and I’ll leave that to them, because they do a fine, fine job at it. But I have come to understand a few simple tenets of the stats movement.
Goalies are mostly voodoo, except save % seems to have value. Corsi numbers generally say more about a team than about an individual, except for CorsiRel which tends to indicate the better players on each team. Shots lead to goals, therefore shots are to be highly valued. But DangerousFenwick trumps Fenwick, which trumps Corsi.
And the final rule, which every hockey fan has always understood and emphasized: goals trump all.
Goals Trump All
They’re the end result, the drive of every good team, the telos of every good hockey system, the measure of every great player. Goals are the ultimate translation of skill into substance, of intangible into tangible – how much a player produces, minus how much he gives up.
Think about Connor McDavid in those terms. Last season, he put up 1.03 pts/game, 3rd in the NHL. Perhaps more impressively, his PrimaryPoints/60 was 2.10, also good for 3rd (>500 mins TOI) in the NHL, in a tie with little known firecracker, Patrick Kane. His advanced statistics were through the roof across the board, which is especially significant, because they indicate that his success last season is a good baseline for what we can expect this year.
He is a goal-producing machine. Instant offence, just add ice.
And what about this year? Well, with 6 pts in 2 games against the Flames, he carried his team to 2 wins. Two nights in a row, he thoroughly abused a player many consider to be one of the best defencemen in the game (Mark Giordano).
He’s given us a glimpse of what is coming, and hold on, because it’s going to be insane.
Evolution of Greatness
Now, he’s not going to average 3 pts/game from here on out. There will be a couple of teams that he struggles to produce against, especially those employing soul-sucking defensive systems like Darryl Sutter and Ken Hitchcock. Or those who run interference ceaselessly and get away with it, like the Buffalo Sabres.
And yet, when you think about it, are those really going to stop him that much? Are the best systems and team defenses in the league really going to keep McDavid from doing what he does, slicing through with that blazing speed and lighting up goalies left, right, and center? Are they going to keep him from picking apart penalty killers with his trademark surgical precision?
No. Not really. That’s what makes him so unique in this league. Believe it or not, he’s likely going to get better.
In his first season with the Erie Otters in the OHL, McDavid scored 66 pts in 63 games, or 1.05 pts/game. Next season? 99 pts in 56 games, for 1.77 pts/game. His draft year? 120 pts in 47 games.
2.55 pts/game.
Year 1: A little time to take stock of what he was up against, while still putting up over a pt/game.
Year 2: Grow, train, progress.
Year 3: Grow, train, dominate.
What kind of progression will we see as he tears through the NHL this season? Normally, we might argue that the percentages would correct, and he’d come down to the level of other merely elite players, like Kane, Benn, Ovechkin, or Crosby. But McDavid is so good, so transitionally excellent, and so shatteringly destructive of any kind of systematic defense that his percentages and those of his teammates may only dip a little.
A Note About Last Night
The NHL has to decide if they want guys like Josh Gorges to survive, or if they want stars like McDavid to thrive. If the referees make a couple calls on the Buffalo defenceman, I believe that game plays out very differently. For one, Buffalo would have to rely on skill or systems to shut down 97, and they don’t have enough of either to make that work. Oilers have to be better, and the Sabres exposed huge weaknesses, but, “C’mon ref!”
Call that penalty.
Final Thoughts
If McDavid continues to play as he has, producing as he has (and that in the current goal-stifling NHL) he might not just be a generational player. For a huge number of hockey fans across the world, he may become the best player they’ve ever actively seen.
Be not afraid of greatness, Oilers fans. In fact, get used to it, celebrate it, sit back and enjoy it, because hockey greatness has a home, and for the first time in a long time, that home is Edmonton.
(All stats courtesy of hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com, corsica.hockey)
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