Sam Gagner is now less than 48 hours away from his arbitration hearing, and the Oilers are far apart with the young center. Gagner’s request is borderline ridiculous, while the Oilers are no doubt low-balling the forward. That’s how things like this work however.
The Oilers and Gagner came close to arbitration last year, but agreed to a one-year deal on the morning of the hearing. It appears that the sides are going to cut it close again, or even go into the hearing.
TSN’s Darren Dreger reported early Saturday morning that Gagner and his camp were seeking $5.5 M per season on a deal with Edmonton, which is totally unreasonable. That kind of money is earned by the likes of John Tavares and Matt Duchene, and is close to that of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, who are both at $6 M per.
Point of this is, Gagner is not in the same class as Hall, Eberle, Tavares or Duchene, and there is no way he should be paid like he is. He’s asking too much, and it is safe to say the Oilers will not settle for a deal at that kind of money. In my mind, $5 M per season is too much for Sam too, and it seems to me like the Oilers feel that way also.
Edmonton reportedly has offered $3.5 M per for Gagner, on what would be a one-year deal, and that comes from HNIC’s Elliotte Friedman. It’s a low-ball offer from the Oilers, and one that I can’t see Gagner even considering. It also happens to be a full two million dollars away from Gagner’s asking price. That’s quite a gap to overcome in 48 hours isn’t it?
Gagner is a good player, and has proven he can play in a top six at the NHL level. He put up 38 points in 48 games this season, if it were a full season it would have been a career year for the center. In 2011-12, Gagner had 47 points in 75 games, and was actually a +5 on a pretty bad hockey club.
Looking through his career numbers, Gagner has scored 40 points consistently throughout his career, and the one year he didn’t (this year) was a 48 game season. He’s a consistent 40 point center, which is pretty decent in today’s game.
Gagner brings a lot of intangibles that can be found in leaders. He’s been through the Oilers darkest era, and he has gritted his teeth and brought it every game. He brings 100% effort ever night, is always willing to own up to a bad performance, and is always there to talk to the media no matter what. His level of compete and his personality in the room add to his offensive production, making him a pretty good guy to have.
The fact is, there is some bad that goes with the good of Sam Gagner.
Sam simply isn’t a consistent hockey player. Sure he had 47 points in 2011-12, but had 11 of those points in a two game stretch in February of that year. He’s always been inconsistent, and is notorious for scoring in bunches. Far too often throughout his career, he has been ineffective for long stretches of games.
He’s not very good in the face-off circle, an area which Edmonton must improve on. He’s not a good two-way forward, and struggles with assignments in his own zone. In fact, I’m inclined to label him as a one dimensional player. Considering the smaller Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be the top line center, I have my doubts Gagner can be his running mate.
Now don’t get me wrong, if a fair contract for both sides that is a longer term deal is there for the taking, the Oilers have to take it. That being said, if this thing is certain to go to arbitration, then the Oilers need to look for trade options for the youngster.
Gagner’s camp will probably want $5 M over four-five years with a NTC, and I can’t see Edmonton doing that. For me, fair value is $4.5 M on that same term with no NTC or NMC. Gagner is simply a good player, nothing less, and certainly nothing more.
For me, if a contract doesn’t get done on Saturday or Sunday, it’s not getting done. I could very well see the Oilers trade Gagner’s RFA rights on Sunday night for something, probably another center. I can’t see the Oilers running the risk of going to a hearing and losing Sam for nothing in a year, I just can’t.
Ideally, the Oilers sign Sam, but a move could improve the team depending on the return. Gagner and a second asset could turn into a very good second line center or a top end defender. Don’t forget, Grabovski is still a free agent too….
It’s too bad Steve Tambellini couldn’t get a long term deal done last summer when the Oilers had the leverage….
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