Judging by the title most of you are probably thinking that I’m going to ruin your day with some piece of information that I dug out of the depths of Twitter. Now part of that is true, I learned some interesting information a couple days ago that could potentially help the Oilers a lot. Now the Oilers haven’t traded for PK Subban or Alex Pietrangelo yet so I guess it’s not the best thing in the world. But I was listening to a radio show in the United States a couple days ago with a PHWA member. Its rumoured in league circles that the cap could go down as much as four million dollars next year. Which I guess shouldn’t be completely shocking with where the Canadian dollar is currently. Now then I’m not going to go in depth into the NHL CBA agreement and try to explain escrow, inflator escalators and how league revenues work. Because to be completely honest CBA talk is more boring then watching paint dry and you’d probably all fall asleep.
The last few hours I’ve done some number crunching. I’ve found 11 teams (possibly more) that are in some big trouble if the cap goes down to roughly 67.4 million next season. You’re gonna see some very good teams having to trade good players for picks and also buying out some decent players as well. It’s not a good time to be a free agent either with limited money out there. But I’ll kind of lay out each of the 11 situations and speculate on who could possibly come available based on the cap next year being around 67.4 million. Keep in mind, it may not go down quite that much. But it will be going down. Also rosters typically consist of 14 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies.
Chicago Blackhawks:
Players needed to fill out the roster:
7 Forwards and 2 Defensemen
Available cap room approx 6.3 million
Key UFA’s: Andrew Ladd, Thomas Fleischmann, Brandon Mashinter, Dale Weise, Christian Ehrhoff and Michal Rozsival.
Key RFA’s: Andrew Shaw,Richard Panik, Dennis Rasmussen and Marcus Krueger
Verdict: The Blackhawks are in a world of hurt. 6.3 million for 9 players is difficult. Makes it even more difficult that they have 2 pretty good forwards that are going to want raises. Look for the Blackhawks to look across the pond for a few cheaper players and maybe even dip into the college free agent market. Similar to Brandon Sadd last year, the Blackhawks may be forced to dump to a few good players. Possibly available? Shaw, Kruger or possibly an even bigger target to help them get out of a squeeze.
Oilers targets? Oilers could use both Andrew Shaw or Marcus Kruger. Could they convince the Blackhawks to give up Niklas Hjalmarsson in exchange for a younger and cheaper defensemen from Edmonton?
Columbus Blue Jackets:
Players needed to fill out the roster:
3 Forwards and 1 Defensemen
Available cap room approx: 1.6 million
Key UFA’s: Rene Bourque
Key RFA’s: Seth Jones, Dalton Prout and William Karlsson
Verdict: Columbus is in a pretty difficult position these days. They have no money and have to sign their franchise defensemen. He’ll be looking for a juicy deal. Although Jarmo Kekäläinen is a pretty stubborn guy. He doesn’t believe in big long term contracts when the player is coming out of his ELC. He played hardball with Ryan Johansen for what seemed like forever and finally they managed to agree to a bridge deal. Obviously Ryan was pushing for a long term deal and Jarmo Kekäläinen wouldn’t budge. Sometimes that’s not a bad idea, sometimes that can backfire in a big way. Ryan Murray also needed a new deal, he was also looking to get paid was politely told to shove that idea and take the deal that he was offered. Columbus now has the same battle with Jones coming up. He’s going to get a raise. Columbus has no money and they aren’t very pleased with their center depth currently. They also aren’t very good either. It makes it hard to make improvements to your club when you’re capped out. It will be interesting to see what they do this summer. They may look at trying to move out Scott Hartnell or possibly Jack Johnson to clear some space.
Oilers targets: Not sure there is a ton of fit here. Doubt the Jackets would part with David Savard. Also I’m not sure there’s any forwards that would make sense from here that would be available. Unless it was part of a bigger deal.
Dallas Stars:
Players needed to fill out the roster:
5 Forwards and 4 Defensemen
Available cap room approx: 11 million
Key UFA’s: Travis Moen, Vernon Fiddler, Patrick Eaves, Colton Sceviour, Kris Russell, Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers and Jordie Benn
Key RFA’s: Valerie Nichushkin and Jamie Oleksiak
Verdict: Dallas isn’t losing a whole lot up front, but with 4 of their top 7 defensemen pending free agents it makes things difficult to keep everyone with the limited cap room they have left. I didn’t like it at the time, but now it looks even worse having 10.5 million dollars tied up in goaltenders. Not a winning formula.
Oilers targets: With so many free agents, there isn’t much to pick from here that would be realistically available. Oilers would have interest in Cody Eakin. Not sure the Stars would part with him. Antoine Roussel would be of big interest to Peter Chiarelli. Average sized guy, but he’s such a pain in the butt to play against. He drives teams absolutely nuts. He also has some offense in his game as well.
Los Angeles Kings:
Players needed to fill the roster:
2 Forwards, 2 Defensemen and a goalie
Available cap room approx: 1.7 million
Key UFA’s: Milan Lucic, Trevor Lewis, Kris Versteeg, Jamie McBain, Luke Schenn
Key RFA’s: Brayden McNabb
Verdict: Kings in a similar situation to other teams. Not much money available, with spots to fill. They’d like to resign Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis. Not sure they can without blowing up the entire team. Lucic’s cap number starts with a 6 probably. It could possibly be lower with the cap going down and not many teams with a ton of money to spend. But still can’t see how the Kings make it work without doing something drastic. Although when Lecavalier retires this summer that will give them a little extra room.
Oilers targets: Kyle Clifford is probably someone of interest to Peter Chiarelli. Big guy who can hit and play a heavy game. Hasn’t been given much of an opportunity in LA. But at the very worst he’s a 4th line upgrade on Korpikoski, Pakarinen ect. With the Oilers looking for another bigger top 9 guy the Kings may be interested in giving Dwight King up for a pick as well.
Minnesota Wild:
Players needed to fill out the roster:
6 Forwards, 1 Defensemen and a goalie
Available cap room approx: 3.3 million
Key UFA’s: Justin Fontaine, Jarret Stoll, Chris Porter, David Jones and Ryan Carter
Key RFA’s: Mathew Dumba, Darcy Kuemper
Verdict: The Wild are in an interesting position. Not sure their GM has a clue what he’s doing there. That Jason Pominville contract… Ugh. All their forwards are on NMC’s. Not exactly sure how they’re going to fix that mess.
Oilers targets: Not a lot here. Don’t think they’d move Charlie Coyle. Teams asked for him at the deadline and were politely told to go away. The Wild do have some depth on their blue line. Maybe they’d consider moving someone for a top 6 forward.
New York Islanders:
Players needed to fill out the roster:
7 Forwards
Available cap room approx: 13.1 million
Key UFA’s: Kyle Okposo, Frans Neilsen, Matt Martin, Steve Bernier and Eric Boulton
Key RFA’s: Casey Cizikas, Ryan Strome and Shane Prince.
Verdict: The Islanders aren’t in a huge cap crunch, it will just be interesting to see how they navigate through it. I suspect they let Nielsen walk. The Islanders have lots of centers that they can move into that spot. They’d probably rather do that, then invest another 3 or 4 years into a soon to be 32 year old. He’s still productive and everything but I think they’d like to give some of their younger guys an opportunity. Okposo I’m not really sure, I’ve reached out to a couple guys in New York and didn’t really get much of an answer. Matt Martin will resign I’m pretty sure. The Islanders also have some pretty good forward prospects, I suspect they may use one or two to plug a couple holes if need be.
Oilers targets: The obvious one is Travis Hamonic, no surprise.
New York Rangers:
Players needed to fill the roster:
7 Forwards, 3 Defensemen and a goalie
Available cap room approx.: 13.3 million
Key UFA’s: Eric Staal, Dominic Moore, Viktor Stalberg, Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle
Key RFA’s: Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, JT Miller and Dylan McIlrath
Verdict: What a mess…. They were in huge trouble before the cap was going down. They now need to fill half a roster with about 8 cents and a used chunk of juicy fruit. In the past few years they’ve mortgaged lots of their future in a win now mentality. But the cupboards are starting to get bare there with a lot of important UFA’s on the way out.
Oilers targets: Not really much here in my opinion that would peak the Oilers interest. Mostly because all of their players are big tickets contracts with term.
Philadelphia Flyers:
Players needed to fill the roster:
4 Forwards and 2 Defensemen
Available cap room approx: 3.4 million
Key UFA’s: Sam Gagner, Ryan White and Evgeny Medvedev
Key RFA’s: Brayden Schenn, Nick Cousins, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning and Jordan Weal
Verdict: The Flyers aren’t in a huge pinch. But I do think they may need to move a guy or two. Once Vincent Lecavalier retires they will lose the cap hit they had from the retained salary on him. They’d like to move RJ Umberger or Matt Read. I doubt there will be a taker for either of those contracts. Ron Hextall might have to get creative here.
Oilers targets: Not sure anything the Oilers want here is available. Peter Chiarelli would run naked through the ice district for an hour to get a chance at Wayne Simmonds. Wait… That sounded wrong, whatever you know what I meant! He has the best contract in hockey probably and one of the best power forwards in the game just entering his prime. Chiarelli would also like Ivan Provorov, but the Flyers need defense badly. No chance the Flyers move him.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Players needed to fill the roster:
5 Forwards and 1 Defensemen
Available cap room approx: -3.2 million
Key UFA’s: Matt Cullen, Kevin Porter, Steve Oleksy
Key RFA’s: Scott Wilson, Bryan Rust, Tom Kuhnhackl
Verdict: Where to even start, Jim Rutherford isn’t exactly the sharpest tool in the shed. The Penguins are at a team pay roll next season of almost 71 MILLION. Which if the cap is around 67-68 million they are 3.5-4.5 million over the cap. The worst part.. They had David Perron, pending UFA and a chance to get some money off the books. But what do they do? Go acquire some more long term money in Carl Hagelin. They aren’t very good on the back end. They have no depth up front after the top 6. No idea what they’re doing there. But it’s sure a mess. Even if they try and trade one of those big contracts outside of Crosby and Malkin this summer, no one is gonna want them. Everyone else is broke too.
Oilers targets: Nothing..
San Jose Sharks
Players needed to fill the roster:
5 Forwards, 2 Defensemen and a goalie
Available cap room approx: 7.4 million
Key UFA’s: Nick Spaling, Dainus Zubrus and Roman Polak
Key RFA’s: Tomas Hertl, Matt Nieto and Matt Tennyson
Verdict: The Sharks are in a bit of a squeeze. They will have to make a move or two, to open up some space. Have to wonder though, how long until they start trading some of the older pieces away.
Oilers targets: Outside of Brett Burns I don’t see the Oilers with to much interest here. He may become available this summer if the Sharks decide to start a youth movement.
Washington Capitals:
Players needed to fill the roster:
4 Forwards and 1 Defensemen
Available cap room approx: 8.8 million
Key UFA’s: Jason Chimera, Mike Richards and Mike Weber
Key RFA’s: Marcus Johansson, Tom Wilson, Michael Latta and Dmitry Orlov
Verdict: The Caps have a very good team. But this summer they’re gonna run out of money. Johansen alone will want 4+. It will be interesting to see what they do with him. They will need to pay Kuznetsov and Burakovsky shortly who are both possibly better players than Johansson. Tom Wilson will be looking for a healthy raise along with Dmitry Orlov. They will have to trade someone.
Oilers targets: Tom Wilson would be highly sought after by Peter Chiarelli if he heard whispers of him becoming available. Dmitry Orlov would be interesting too. Although he’s a left shot he’s a pretty talented defensemen.
The Blues, Canadiens, Lightning are on the bubble as far as cap concerns as well. Tampa Bay Lightning have about 17 million in space but have a few bigger names that need to be signed in Killorn and Kucherov. Vancouver Canucks are flirting in deep water too with only about 10 million in space while needing to fill 6 spots. Their RFA’s will be cheap though.
At the end of the day there is about 15 teams that are either in trouble or very close too it. I expect Peter Chiarelli to be pretty busy this summer trying to pick up a few players for cheap with the amount of picks he has this summer. If the cap is indeed around 67-68 million, you can use an extra 7.5% over the cap on player bonuses. So basically 5 million dollars. Basically covers McDavid and Draisaitl’s bonuses. The only bonuses going on the actual cap would be Reinhart and Nurse’s next season. So not a whole lot. The Oilers need 3 players to fill out the roster and would have about 9.5 million free. With the cap going down I sense it will be very hard for the Oilers to dump Fayne or Korpikoski’s contract’s. Which may lead to buyouts for both of them. If they indeed did buy both out they’d save another 4.3 million as well. Puts the Oilers at almost 14 million in cap space to upgrade the defense and find a couple depth forwards. If the Oilers end up trading one of the 6 million dollar forwards then there’s even more money freed up. With Connor McDavid’s contract coming up it will be interesting to see how they spend their pennies.
Cheers Oil Country,
I’m going to dream about number crunching for the next week after all this… ✌?️
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