Darnell Nurse: Making a Case to Stay Pt. 2

The other day I posted a piece about Darnell Nurse making a case for himself to be included on the 2013 version of the Oilers. The reaction was pretty similar, most (including me) think that Nurse should have another season in the OHL with the Sioux Greyhounds to get some more experience but most importantly fill out a bit physically.

Like I said I agree with that notion, but I wonder what happens if Nurse continues to play well in the preseason game, does he stay for a look in the regular season? And what happens if he shows the same form during regular season play. He can play 9 regular season games and be sent back to junior without burning up the first year of his entry level deal.

In the last article, I used the defensive invitees to Team Canada’s Olympic orientation camp that were picked in the top 10 of the first round during their respective draft years. Today I’m going to go a little more in depth, I’ve gone through the last 10 drafts (2012-2002) and looked at all defencemen selecting in the first 10 picks.

There have been 37 defenseman taken in the top 10 of the draft since 2002. Of those 37 only 7 made their respective NHL club the season after being drafted, and of those 7 none of them were selected outside of the top 5. The odds don’t look to be in Nurse’s favor.

The Picks Who Made It

Adam Larsson was selected 4^th overall by the Devils in 2011 and made the jump to the NHL that season. The Devils were in need of help on the blue line, as they finished 27^th the year before and the depth on defense was weak to say the least. In his first year he finished -7 with 2 goals and 18 assists in 65 games and averaged 20:37 minutes/game. Larsson was compared a lot to Nicklas Lidstrom in his draft year and has yet to develop anywhere close to that, he actually saw a decrease in his ice time in his second season.

Victor Hedman made the jump right away and is already a veteran of 258 NHL games, his stats though are somewhat underwhelming for a guy who was selected 2^nd overall in the ’09 draft. Hedman’s has a ppg avg of 0.34, which I’m sure is a lot less than the Tampa Bay Lightning had hoped especially playing with such offensively gifted forwards. Maybe some more time developing in Sweden would have helped his development.

Drew Doughty has become probably the best defenseman on this list of 7. Drafted second overall in 2008 he’s already got his name on the Stanley Cup and an Olympic Gold Medal to wear around his neck. His numbers are good as he holds a 0.51 ppg average and a +/-18 career rating. Doughty was ready to make the NHL when he was drafted and has been a key contributor since. If Nurse turns in to a taller version of Los Angeles’ number 8 we will all consider ourselves lucky.

Zach Bogosian was the first pick of the now defunct Atlanta Thrashers in 2008, going 3^rd overall after Doughty was picked second. He debuted in the NHL a few short months after being drafted but only played in 47 games due to a broken leg. Zach has turned in to a pretty well rounded defenseman and is a big time minute muncher for the Jets when he plays. The most games Zach has played in one season is 81, in the ’09-10 season, he’s missed at least 10 games in his other 4 NHL seasons. I know a broken leg is a freak injury but it makes you wonder whether or not playing that first season was the right call.

Luke Schenn is more of a physical shut down defensive type player and he was taken 5^th , in the same draft as the two players mentioned above, by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Schenn managed four disappointing seasons with the Leafs before being traded to the Flyers for James Van Riemsdyk. Leafs management and fans alike were never happy with Luke’s performance and happy to see him go. See what happens when a guys plays before he is ready.

Jay Bouwmeester is the last D-man on this list that made the NHL in his first year of eligibility. J-Bo was drafted 3^rd overall by the Florida Panthers and made the team due to need and a desire to sell tickets. Bouwmeester was supposed to be the next big thing in defence. His fluid skating and defensive prowess was supposed to be second to none. J-Bo impressed early too playing big minutes and putting points on the board often. When he was traded to Calgary his production slowed and he was shipped off to St Louis at last year’s trade deadline. Bouwmeester is a great addition to any team and like Doughty was ready to play in the big leagues at his earliest opportunity.

Does This Mean Anything?

7 out of 37 in the last 11 drafts actually played the next season after being drafted and I’d venture to say that only 2 of the 7 were actually ready to make the jump. Those are pretty thin numbers and I think makes the case that more harm than good would come if Nurse was to stick around. He could still make the team out of camp and I wouldn’t be opposed to him playing games this season, but let him get to 9 and then send him back to the “O”. It will be fun watching Nurse suit up for team Canada at the World Juniors in Russia.

We get another look at the impressive prospect tonight for preseason action versus the Vancouver Canucks. Nurse will be besides Jeff Petry on the first pairing tonight, you can read all about the game in Alex Thomas’ game preview here.

The last thing I’ll mention; I’ve seen and heard Nurse compared to future Hall of Famer Chris Pronger (Here). Pronger, obviously had higher draft pedigree going 2^nd overall to the Hartford Whalers in the ’93 draft. But let’s just say, just for a minute, that those comparisons are even remotely close; Pronger made the Whalers right away and scored 30 points. Now Pronger is 6’6” but he was slim when he first came in to the league (one of the big knocks on Nurse) but he still managed to register 30 points. What would you say next offseason if Nurse had 30 Points in 81 games like Pronger did?

Thanks for Reading