Oilers fans have been basking in light of the last 3 games quite blissfully. There is a lot of optimistic talk in conversations mostly starting with “if they only…” Well folks, the Chicago Blackhawks and I are here to turn that smile up side down!
I’ve been working on some 10 game rolling charts looking at possession stats and such. The findings solidify what we have known for quite a while. The Oilers just aren’t that good. The following are some snapshots of what the Oilers have been up to thus far and how they compare to the rest of the west.
This chart compares all of the western conference teams in terms of their 5v5 total shot attempts over 10 game segments. As you can see our beloved Oilers have only managed to average over a 46% share of the shot attempts in one 10 game segment, 3-12. Yikes. The frustrating part about is that it coincided with some historically bad puck stopping, helping the Oilers off to one of the worst starts in franchise history and making the playoffs a pipe dream by the start of November. The good news is that the last 3 games has started a trend back towards that point and hopefully higher. A strong performance in tonight’s game could have a big effect on the average of the last 10 games as we will see game 15 (the 5-0 loss to Detroit in which our team was summarily dismissed at 41% 5v5 and 37% overall) fall of the rolling average moving forward.
As beaten to death as it is, the goal tending really was horrid. It started below average and continued on a downward trend until the 12 to 21 game segment where is started an upward trend from an awful .870. It has steadily risen from that point and over the last ten games clocked in at just over .903, still bad, but approaching average, and based on Dubnyk’s recent performances it should continue to climb.
The Oilers CF%, as compared above, is still a major point of contention if we are to ever see this team rise from the ashes of the scorched earth rebuild. It is one thing to flirt with lady Corsi in the 48% to 52% zone where you can ride hot goal tending and strings of luck to an excellent record or, conversely, hold on when shooting and save percentages go in the tank. It’s a whole other ball game when you are struggling to maintain a 45% share of the shot attempts night to night. Bad puck luck on both the offense and defense side of things end up amplifying the results in the standings because you were taking on water to begin with. The result? Look no further than our team. They really need to show over the last 3/4 of the season that they can posses the puck more than their nightly opponents. If they end up recovering in this department we may have something for next year. If they don’t? I’m not sure what direction they need to head as, in my opinion, it will be a failure of the rebuild.
Chicago is a beast of a possession team. If the Oilers can break even tonight and Dubnyk continues his, as of late, strong performances they have a chance.
Shooting percentages for and against (see SV% chart) have not been kind to the Oilers so far. League average is around 8% at any given point and our team has seen the short end of the stick on both side of the ledger. Better puck luck looks like it is starting to take shape so we will hopefully see these numbers move to at least average. If they do, the Oilers record should improve, all things considered.
I know it is fun to watch the team win a few games, but we really shouldn’t be getting our hopes up to high. It is one thing to dominate the bottom feeders as they did (karma says that our boys were due anyways). It’s a whole other thing to keep that momentum going against power house like the Chicago Blackhawks. For tonight’s game, and the next few games, I’m not going to be looking at the final scores. I want to see the trends started in the last few games continue. If there is any hope for for my hopes moving forward it will be rooted in seeing Dallas Eakins help the team build the underlying numbers to point where I can say with confidence that they are headed in the right direction. To this point those numbers are not there, and so goes my optimism.
Feel free to share some banter with me on twitter, @borisnikov, be it hockey or otherwise.
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