Eberle and the Shooter Tutor

Remember the hue and cry about Eberle’s lack of a one-timer last season? He apparently worked on it during the off-season with the idea being that he could then better capitalize on the tremendous opportunity of being Connor McDavid’s winger.

Eberle’s career shooting percentage going into the season was 13.9%. That’s pretty good.

His current shooting percentage this season is 7.8% which is not that good.

Eberle’s success to this point has derived from cycling the puck down low and sliding into the high-danger scoring zones, then when he had the puck he would change the angle of his shot at the last moment. This, by definition, is not a one-timer.

I wonder if perhaps asking a six-year veteran to change a fundamental aspect of his game rather than facing the prospect of his being a poor fit with McDavid was the wrong decision.

That said, we should remember that it takes time to make these adjustments. I’m a fairly patient person and the time to discuss moving Eberle isn’t during a terrible season slump but the off-season when reason can dictate roster needs more than temporary performance trends.

Trade Thoughts

The recent talk of Matt Duchene being on the trade block got me thinking about how the Oilers might get themselves in the running for this player. The Avalanche are reportedly looking for a defenseman (and some cap savings to boot, if they can manage it). The Oilers could offer Klefbom, Larsson or Nurse directly, though I don’t believe there’s a fit there. Chiarelli seems sold on Nurse and I don’t know if either Klefbom or Larsson are what Joe Sakic is looking for.

A little while ago I had the opportunity to speak to a Jets fan who was telling me that Cheveldayoff is wanting a left-handed defenseman in return for Trouba. If there’s one thing the Oilers can offer it is a left-handed defenseman. But Trouba doesn’t want to play in Canada, so the Jets have to shop for trade partners south of the 49th parallel.

So why not send Klefbom to the Jets, Trouba to the Avalanche, Duchene to the Oilers?

We could even take it a step further and say that after acquiring Duchene, Chiarelli could trade Nugent-Hopkins to the Avalanche for Tyson Barrie.

Now, the question that follows is: are the Oilers better if we subtract Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom and add Duchene and Barrie? Using the new skater comparison tool from datarink.com, I looked at the TOI, Points-per-60-minutes, and possession numbers per 60 for both player comparisons (Klefbom/Barrie, Duchene/Nugent-Hopkins).

For comparison, I had a look at both skaters using the Corsica skater comparison tool and set it back to Nugent-Hopkins’ rookie season. They are nearly identical in possession numbers and across most categories. What stands out is their relative offense, both for and against. Where Nugent-Hopkins does not bring a great deal of offense, he also helps prevent offensive chances against. Duchene brings more offensive punch, but allows a greater share against.

Given that both players are $6 million dollar cap hits, the question then becomes “how are you to best spend your cap space, for offensive production or defensive acumen?”

The answer is almost always in favour of the former.

Let’s look at this as a trade package instead.

Duchene and Barrie provide greater individual scoring 5v5, which is very valuable. However, both Avalanche players also suffer from worse possession metrics 5v5. These numbers are the cumulative effect of playing their entire careers for the Colorado Avalanche, first under Joe Sacco, then Patrick Roy. Roy in particular seemed to exercise a scheme that resulted in the Avalanche being perennially outshot.

One could say that Barrie and Duchene’s numbers have been buried by an ava….nah, I’ll save it.

Interestingly, Nugent-Hopkins’ PP scoring per 60 minutes is miles better than Duchene’s, but that’s something of an aside, to be honest, because the Oilers’ roster is not currently in great need of a powerplay centre.

What they need is an offensive center/winger with speed. Duchene fits the bill.

I’m less bullish on the Klefbom/Barrie swap.

Klefbom is the better defenseman of the two. He doesn’t put up the points that Barrie has, but he hasn’t had as much time in the league either and has the more defensively sound game.

So, if they Oilers were to make that deal, they’d be gaining a 2nd pairing right-handed defenseman who can create offense but lacks a sound defensive game. They’d also be giving up a bourgeoning defensive player signed to a very friendly contract long-term and who has displayed an enviable variety of skills in his short NHL career thus far. If Nugent-Hopkins could get you Duchene, I’d say go for it. But given that I expect the cost would be one of Klefbom or Nurse (and it appears that the Oilers are not willing to discuss trading Nurse at this time), then I’m not sure I see a fit here.

Too bad, because I’d absolutely love to see Duchene on McDavid’s wing.

Get’er Goin’

The Oilers are struggling to put some safe distance between themselves and the lower half of the Pacific Division. The stress this causes the fan base is understandable because the longer those other teams (coughFlamescough) hang around, the greater the likelihood that they eventually overtake the Oilers and we’re looking at yet another season outside the playoffs. Something I wanted to bring up for consideration: in the Oilers’ first season in the NHL they had a winning percentage of 0.431, finishing 1 point back of the Canucks with a -21 goal differential. The following year it was 0.463, finishing in exactly the same spot (this time 2 points behind the Canucks) with a +1 goal differential.

This was with the greatest player in a generation, and eventually the greatest player in the history of the game, on the roster.

Now, because of the rules of the league at the time, both those seasons saw the Oilers make the playoffs, so technically speaking they were not entirely “lost” seasons because there was at least a chance at a championship.

However, in the first year they went out to the Flyers in three straight games in the first round while in the second year they delivered that same fate to the storied Montreal Canadiens before going out 4 games to 2 to the eventual champions, the New York Islanders. In the third season the Oilers finally posted a winning record of 0.694 (111 pts and finishing first in the Smythe division). They lost in the first round to the Los Angeles Kings. The Canucks would go on to lose in the Stanley Cup Final to the New York Islanders (oh, those silly Canucks).

Why the history lesson? Because through all the anxiety and hand-wringing, I think we need to remember that even the best teams (and that 80s Oilers team was, without doubt, one of the best teams in NHL history) take time.

I realize that this is a different era when financial considerations are going to force teams to change over lineups more frequently and so on, but consider this: if the Oilers are forced to divest themselves of some talented players because of the salary cap, is that, at it’s core, really any different in the end result than what was happening during the late 80s and early 90s? And isn’t there a benefit to be had in that every team in the league today has to play within the same financial landscape (internal budgets notwithstanding) rather than the predatory environment that emerged in the mid to late 90s and into the early 2000s?

So yes, the clock is ticking on the Oilers, but it was 37 years ago too, though few heard it back then. I’m not saying I’m content to sit back and twiddle my thumbs while I just wait for success to be delivered on a silver platter, but neither am I going to wring my hands over every setback under the belief that anything except consistent and perpetual improvement represents failure.

My bottom line is this: if the Oilers squander their years of Connor McDavid (and nobody knows how many of them we’ll have, so let’s not open that up for debate) I will never forgive this team, however I am not going to allow myself to perceive setbacks and defeats as necessarily heralding catastrophe.

Back up on that backup

So, about Jonas Gustavsson…

…okay, I wasn’t a fan when they signed him but I can honestly say that even I’m surprised at how poorly he has done recently.

Before I dislocate something patting myself on the back, I’d argued for Jhonas Enroth as a backup and all the signs point to his having an equally poor season or being equally ill-suited as backup.

The Oilers have recalled Brossoit and Kurt Leavins believes they are quite confident in Nick Ellis as a prospect so I can only assume that they will play Brossoit this season and assign the AHL starter’s position to Ellis to reinforce his development.

I’ve been a guarded fan of Brossoit’s going back to his Oil Kings’ days. I liked him there but saw a fair bit of “wobble” to his game, like he was relying too much on athleticism rather than reading the play and making high-percentage moves to respond. I think he has potential as an NHL backup and still warm the cold husk of my heart at the thought of his playing this season while the Flames continue to carry Ladislav Smid on their roster. (Smid’s a great guy, and I liked him as a player, but his days in the NHL are over due to injury and at this stage I wish him a long, healthy, happy retirement).

Putting the D in Depth

Matt Benning is coming along splendidly. Lowetide has begun using Woodmoney metrics in his regular player evaluations and Benning is showing extraordinarily well – playing elite-level competition and controlling play.

This got me thinking about the Oilers’ defensive depth chart. On the right side we have Larsson, Benning, Gryba and Fayne. The left side runs Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Davidson and Russell.
Assuming that the Oilers look to find a way to move on from Fayne, and barring an extension for Russell, we can then proceed with seven names into next season.
With the expansion draft looming there is at least a chance that the Oilers lose a body off that list in Brandon Davidson (the other candidate would be a forward like Benoit Pouliot).
The modicum of success the Oilers’ have found this season rests in a small part upon their defensive depth to survive both injury and the vicissitudes of player performance.

The real treasure to take from the early part of this season is that we can look at this defense corps and fairly confidently describe pairings aligned with their appropriate level of competition: Klefbom and Larsson have spent over 500 minutes together (more than any other partner of theirs) and have posted a 51.24 CF% in that time.

Meanwhile, Sekera has shown himself to be an eminently capable defenseman, easily playable on the 2nd pairing at either the right or left side, but also at times usurping the 1st pairing position from either of the two previously mentioned. Sekera has played just under 400 minutes with Kris Russell this season with a 46.99 CF% – by contrast, he’s spent half as much time (196 minutes) with Matt Benning and together they’ve registered an astonishing 58 CF%.

Those four alone represent a solid foundation to a defense corps. Add in Nurse and Davidson (operating under the assumption that pending UFAs are not returned) and you have six capable NHL defenders with very little disparity between them by way of ability to at least handle elite competition, though not necessarily dominate against them.

The weakness of the group lies in that the most highly developed right-handed option in Adam Larsson also has perhaps the most limited skill set of the young defenders listed (Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson, Benning). However, the strength of the group lies in the twin assets of youth (which carries with it a level of affordability) and potential.

And yes, I am fully aware of the damage that the concept of potential has wrought upon both this organization and their fans these last ten (twenty?) years.

Point is, I’m kind of optimistic here. There’s work to be done, but at least we’re laying a foundation with bricks and mortar rather than papier mache and old elastic bands.

A New Culprit

How mad are you still about the Taylor Hall trade?

I mean, really, how mad? Because I think I’m about to make you maybe a thousand times more furious. The kind of angry where the incandescent rage would burn hot enough to light your way through an eternal darkness.

The Oilers traded Taylor Hall for a 1st pairing right-handed defenseman, correct?

Those are hard to come by.

In fact, you could say that the Oilers have been hunting for one for some time now. Travis Hamonic looked like he might be a good fit, but it sounds like talks with the Oilers never really took off.

Come to think of it, prior to Adam Larsson, there is only one right-handed defenseman I remember being traded recently.

Dougie Hamilton, when he went to the Flames.

So what if…the Calgary Flames (aided by the blind vindictiveness of the Bruins towards their former GM) scooping Dougie Hamilton from the Oilers helped cost this team Taylor Hall?

How’s your blood pressure now?