The disconnect

I’m currently listening to Bob Stauffer as I type this. Almost at the outset of his show he mentioned how the Oilers team Corsi numbers have improved over last season; this on the heals of another embarrassing loss. I even read today on twitter and blogs how the despite the horrific start, that the Corsi numbers actually show that the Oilers are a improved team over last year. The fans who don’t view the team with mathematical eyes, and in the face of the last two embarrassing losses, simply throw up their hands and ask, “How the hell can you claim the team is improved!?”

I think this is where this disconnect between the non-stats crowd and the fancy numbers begins.

This isn’t a post to attack analytics nor is it a post to pump the tires of the ‘seen-it-good’ crowd. In this debate I have always maintained neutrality. I enjoy reviewing the new stats but I have always felt their proponents overvalue their importance. Rolling out a 0-3-1 team’s improvement in Corsi numbers is an example of this.

The team can’t possibly be as bad as the early results (wins and losses) show. Whether you see it as a case of the opposition not being able to maintain a ridiculously high shooting percentage or that the goaltenders will eventually post a save percentage better than that of a Shooter-Tutor, the analytics indicate that the results will get better (though how much better is open for debate).

However, the results are what matter to most fans. After 8 years most do not care about the process, shot differential, or that the Oilers currently have a low PDO. What they do care about is a competitive team. They care about wins. They care about their team.

The Oilers organization doesn’t help. They claim to use the new numbers as a tool and trumpeted the hiring of Tyler Dellow as and example of how they are cutting edge. However, to most observers, their roster and in-game decisions seem to be more of the same old, same old and often fly in the face of logic. The statement, according to the new numbers, that the team is improved just seems like adding salt to the wounds of fans who just want a win. It also gives the non-spreadsheeters ammunition to attack the organization.

What many fans see is the holes that have existed in the lineup for years. Centre ice depth? Hasn’t been addressed. Legitimate top pairing defenseman? Nope. The organization is unwilling to move a ‘core’ piece or pieces to address the void (if a trade existed or exists). Management believes that an internal prospect will magically morph into the player needed before the contracts for Hall, RNH, and Eberle expire. Goaltending? It was supposed to be improved and the jury is out, but it doesn’t look good. Coaching? Don’t even get me started.

So to hear that and 0-3-1 team is better because they are improved in relation to shot differential 5X5? Too much for many fans to handle when their team has been a debacle for almost a decade.

There is something to analytics as a tool to help shape a team. The information provided is extremely valuable. However, the new stats should never be put ahead of old fashioned wins and losses lest the ordinary fan may rise up in revolt.