Duck Hunting, Digging into a few metrics

The Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks play 2 more games against each other and could also be opponents in the playoffs. I decided to look at a few underlying metrics and how they fare against each other. Personally I am a big believer in the “Match up” portion of the game. How does a player play against this system? Against this line up? Against this pairing? Both teams have 6 wins, 3 losses and the Bettman point in their last 10 games. They are also tied with 87 points on the season, so they are very closely matched by the traditional statistics. How do they fare using a few of the underlying metrics?

I like to look at Rolling Averages using 10 and 25 game sample sizes, which I find gives me an idea of how the team has been faring over the last few weeks, and then also how they have been the last couple months. Are there warning signs? Are things trending positively? Ok, lets get to some rolling average charts, and see a couple of those trends.

EVERYONE’S Favorite: Corsi

First up will be the 25 game, then followed by the 10 game

As we know Edmonton started the season very well, and then slowly came back to realty. What is that reality? Well, the 25 game benchmark makes it look like Oilers are continuing to slowly drop, whereas the 10 game mark appears to show the team perhaps “bottoming” out the first week of February and then coming back towards a 50% mark.

Anaheim, however, is much more stable in this metric. They bottomed out before Christmas and then appear to be a slightly above average corsi team. The rolling averages also show they are much more consistent than the Oilers.

Expected Goals For

This is one of my current favourite metrics. It has predictive qualities like Corsi does, but also adds more descriptive elements. When I watch the game I tend to think “the ice is slanted this way or that way” (for me this is Corsi) but typically I also look for who is getting to the “scoring areas” (for me this is Expected Goals). Hockey also has a lot of “luck” involved in that you could slant the ice, and shoot from the best areas but still lose, I accept and acknowledge this but ultimately I still want to win the underlying metrics. Enough rambling! On to the charts!

Once again Ducks are a very stable producer of this metric and better all season. Edmonton is a younger team so perhaps they are learning but even in the 10 game sample size, the Ducks are a tough opponent for them here.

Actual Goals Scored

Woot Woot! Finally Oilers are ahead of the Ducks! Not by a lot mind you, but they are a little more consistent at winning the Even Strength goal scoring battle against their opponent. To me this is the McDavid & Talbot effect. The Oilers have a very steady above average goalie, mixed with a superstar who can drop opponents in a flash. Oilers win their goal share battle but this typically revolves heavily around 2 main players for the Oilers, mixed with their supporting cast.

Ducks Lines

Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg

Corsi For %= 56.74%

Fenwick For %= 56.92%

Expected GF%= 57.99%

Goals For% = 54.57%

TOI together= 725.79

This is an outstanding line that also takes on the tough opponents most nights and wins the battle the majority of the time. In my opinion Kesler and Silfverberg will be high in the votes for the Selke trophy for best Defensive Forward.

Eaves-Getzlaf-Rakell

CF%= 52.3%

FF%=57 %

xGF=68.1% !!!

GF=72.2% !!!!!

85 TOI together

Very small sample size but it appears the Ducks may have found a very dominant second line. Can they continue this? If so, their opponents better watch out.

Ritchie-Vermette-Perry

CF%=48.7%

FF%=49.4%

xGF%=40.7%

GF=33.3%

60.67 TOI together

Again, a very small sample size, but I would think the coaches won’t keep this combo together long if they don’t get a few goals right away.

Pairings

Lindholm-Manson

CF%= 56.08%

FF%=57.26%

xGF%=56.08%

GF%=50.42%

Very solid pairing. I think the Ducks will want to find away to keep Manson long term.

Fowler-Vatanen

CF%=49.99%

FF%=49.55%

xGF%=51.05%

GF%=48.76

Decent second pairing, overall a very solid Top 4 D core that is young and starting to get solid experience as well.

Holzer-Bieksa

CF%=39.67%

FF%=41

xGF=41.4%

GF=32.5%

Here is where matchups come in; this pairing is very liable to be exposed and cause the Ducks to lose.

All metrics and graphs from Corsica Hockey