The Edmonton Oilers 2016-17 Expectations Revisited

Yesterday, Jon McLeod revisited his preseason bold predictions for the Edmonton Oilers, which you can read here. Jon was actually right or very close to right on a number of his bold predictions, so before I begin today I have to tip my cap to him. It was a bold year for the Oilers, so it’s only fitting a lot of his predictions actually came true.

Today, I wanted to recap my season preview for the club, which I posted the night before Edmonton opened Rogers Place against the Calgary Flames. There was a lot of optimism back in October, and going back through it is very apparent that I underestimated this club and tried playing it safe.

Let’s just say I’m pleasantly surprised that, as of this writing, we still have Oilers hockey left to watch. Didn’t think I’d be saying that after 82 games this year.

The Off-Season:

In my season preview, I looked back at the Oilers’ off-season moves and proclaimed that the club was a lot stronger. Seems I was right on that one, as Edmonton is in a completely different stratosphere than this time last year. I believed in Adam Larsson and Oscar Klefbom as a top pairing, and they rewarded my faith, while my questions about Kris Russell were answered with a solid season by the veteran.

I thought the defense could be a good unit this season, and they one-upped me by being a very solid group all season long.

I was also wrong about Edmonton’s offense missing Taylor Hall in a big way. While I still think this club could use a player like Hall (what team couldn’t?), the offense did not suffer like I thought it would. In fact, the Oilers offense was just fine this season.

I correctly predicted Milan Lucic helping with the secondary scoring, but badly whiffed on Kris Versteeg (oops) and Jesse Puljujarvi. Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Zack Kassian stepped up and filled that secondary scoring role, while Leon Draisaitl’s totals are a lot higher than I thought they would be.

I thought Peter Chiarelli had a good off-season, but even I underestimated the changes he made.

The Big Questions:

1.) Where does the secondary offense come from?: The Lucic-McDavid-Eberle line didn’t last like I thought it would, but McDavid’s line still produced elite numbers with Maroon and Draisaitl. Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian, Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle contributed the secondary offense behind the McDavid line this season, while the blueline stepped up offensively led by Oscar Klefbom.

I underestimated Letestu, Kassian, Maroon and the blueline as a whole here.

2.) Can Cam Talbot ride?: Hell yeah he can. 42 wins later and Talbot should be earning Vezina Trophy votes. One of the finest seasons ever by an Edmonton Oiler goaltender. Talbot certainly avoided the early slump I was worried about.

3.) Who is this year’s Brandon Davidson?: I named Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning as answers here and both ended up being right. Benning struggled late, but he had a season that I believe was better than Davidson’s 2015-16 campaign. The rookie can play folks.

Caggiula, due to injury and adjustment time, has only really come on recently, but he had a solid debut season when many thought he would be in Bakersfield for the winter.

A Projected Lineup:

Kris Versteeg and Mark Fayne didn’t break camp with the Oilers, while Jonas Gustavsson (demotion), Brandon Davidson (traded), and Tyler Pitlick (injury), didn’t last the entire season in Edmonton.

My biggest missteps here? I had Patrick Maroon on the third line and Leon Draisaitl on the wing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The two of them formed the NHL’s best line with Connor McDavid.

David Desharnais was the lone addition from outside the organization, and he filled Drake Caggiula’s spot on my projected lineup after Caggiula struggled as the team’s 3rd line center. This spot in the lineup is still a hole, for what it’s worth.

The X-Factor:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was my X-factor pick back in the preseason. He had a down season offensively for the most part, but the Nuge did a lot of heavy lifting in terms of playing elite opposition and I believe he opened up some clean air for McDavid.

RNH had a strong end to the season and seems to be gaining confidence as we hit the playoffs. His line is clicking right now and he’s found his role as a decent offensive contributor who handles the tough minutes. He’s overpaid for that role, but he’s a good player carving out his spot on this roster.

I know it’s the easy way out, but I believe Nugent-Hopkins is a huge factor in the upcoming playoff series with San Jose. If his line is going, Edmonton should win the series.

All in all, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did not have the season that I thought he was going to have. It ended up not mattering.

The Prediction:

My line in the sand for Edmonton was 85 points, and my official prediction was that the club would miss the playoffs with 88 points. That would have been an 18 point improvement and would have signaled that Edmonton had turned a corner.

My reasoning for that prediction? Edmonton was healthier and had improved its roster enough to truly move the needle. I was right about that, but I vastly underestimated just how far the needle would move.

The Oilers ended up blowing my prediction out of the water by finishing with 103 points and making the playoffs with home ice advantage. That is exceeding expectations.

You don’t need me to tell you that the 2016-17 season was a huge one for the Edmonton Oilers. They are once again relevant and heading to the postseason. I’m used to being wrong when it comes to my preseason predictions…..I’m just glad that this time I actually underestimated the Edmonton Oilers.