How Far?

On Friday, The Hockey News writer Ken Campbell joined the Oilers Now program to talk about a number of different topics, with one of them being how far away the Oilers are from being a competitive NHL hockey team. We all agree, the Oilers are some distance away from that level, but Campbell’s answer blew me away.

Ken Campbell, a very respected and good hockey writer, believes that the Edmonton Oilers are ten to twelve players away. Uhmmmmm what? Twelve players is more than half of an NHL roster, do the Oilers need to really fix up that many players? They need a number of changes, but not that many.

I took to twitter on Friday night and asked Oilers fans how far they thought the team was from being a competitive hockey team. Responses tended to vary anywhere from four to six players, with most responses saying the team lacked two defenders, a center and a winger. I tend to agree with that over Campbell.

Now, I respect Ken Campbell a lot, but saying the Oilers are 10-12 players away is a little bit much. Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, David Perron and Nail Yakupov are all top-six NHL forwards, which gives the Oilers five of six players. The team has a good third line center, a few good bottom six wingers, two goalies and about four NHL defenders. That’s not minimum ten guys away.

What They Need:

Let’s get the obvious out of the way here. The Oilers need two defenders for their NHL roster next year. Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin and Andrew Ference can handle top-four minutes, while Justin Schultz ideally plays number five minutes. That’s four defenders that can handle the NHL game, and be part of a successful blue-line.

One thing is missing there, a veteran top-pairing defender that can settle everyone else down, and put players like Petry and Ference in their correct spots down the lineup. Free agents like Andrei Markov and Matt Niskanen can do that to a degree. That’s one piece.

Another defender is the second piece. Now there are two ways to fill that. One could be Oscar Klefbom, who has looked good in a small stint so far. Playing Ference and Klefbom on the third-pairing next season could be a decent option for Edmonton. If Klefbom is not ready, the Oilers will need to sign a veteran that can fill a number 4/5 role for next season, and there are plenty of those on the market.

That’s two pieces….

Goaltending is fine. Both Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth have played good hockey for Edmonton, and both are under fair value contracts for next season, so goaltending is, remarkably, set for 2014-15.

Up front, Edmonton’s top line will likely be fine with Hall, RNH and Eberle, while both Perron and Yakupov will likely be back on the wings for line two. Sam Gagner will likely be dealt, and Edmonton will need a veteran second line center. Guys like David Legwand and Paul Stastny will be free agents this summer. Second line center is player number three.

Boyd Gordon will be back on line three next year, but with Ryan Smyth likely heading out, and Ryan Jones likely to be allowed to sign elsewhere, the Oilers will need two wingers on this line. I’ll say Matt Hendricks fills one spot, but the team will need to sign a third line winger. Daniel Winnik is going to be a UFA, just saying. That’s player four.

The fourth line will most likely, like it or not, see Luke Gazdic return and Tyler Pitlick get a wing spot. Anton Lander could be the center on this line, but I think Edmonton will let him walk, meaning the Oilers need to sign a player or promote someone like Arcobello to the big club. I’ll say that is player five.

So while Campbell says Edmonton is ten-to-twelve guys away, I count five players that the Oilers need to compete in 2014-15. Getting two bottom-six wingers should be easy, but adding a second line center and two defenders could prove to be a very difficult task for Craig MacTavish.

On this topic, I tend to agree with Oilers fans, who have this team anywhere from four to six players away from being a good hockey club. I’m right in the middle at five. Either way, MacT is going to have his hands full this upcoming summer, which could be one of the most important in franchise history.