Good morning friends. So I had writer’s block last night while trying to do my daily piece for the next morning. There’s so much to talk about, but honestly how many times can I write about the Jeff Petry situation before it gets stale? So this morning, I’m just going to throw some bullet points at the wall and see what sticks!
Deadline:
Monday afternoon is the NHL’s trade deadline. I wrote my primer on Thursday, and I think we have things surrounded in terms of activity from the Oil. Jeff Petry appears certain to go, while interest is there on Andrew Ference and Jordan Eberle.
It’s tough to see Petry walk out the door, and I believe it shows that Edmonton might not be interested in competing in 2015-16, but at this point it is what it is. I will say this, I’d deal Ference if the opportunity is there. I like Ference a lot, but he just doesn’t have it anymore.
He’s a solid veteran, but his game has clearly dropped off since he arrived from Boston. He’s slower and prone to being beat on a regular basis. Again, I really like the guy, but at his cap hit, he just isn’t worth it as a third-pairing guy. The Oilers need him to be something that he just isn’t anymore. Getting cap space in exchange for him would be a nice item for Edmonton.
I don’t think moving Ference harms 2015-16 either. Oscar Klefbom and Martin Marincin, in my mind, are already better options on the left-side. Add a free agent or a player via trade who is still playing at a productive level, and we have something here.
To me, a young Martin Marincin, who is coming around nicely under Todd Nelson, is much more valuable than Ference. Again, I’m a Ference fan, but I think a split would benefit the Oilers at this point.
All in all, I still only expect one deal before Monday afternoon, and that will be Jeff Petry.
80% Returning?:
Last week, GM Craig MacTavish mentioned that the roster turn-over would not be nearly as large in quantity this off-season. He suggested as much as 80% of his roster would return, which makes a lot of sense. Sure, some people panicked when hearing that, but think about it for a second.
Roughly 80% of the roster means adding four or five players still, which should be plenty if they all go into the right spots. Edmonton needs a starting goalie, two top-four defenders and another forward. That’s five players. Let’s say Antti Niemi, Johnny Boychuk, Jan Hejda and Justin Williams come walking through that door.
That’s only five players, but they fill massive holes on this roster, and vastly improve the Edmonton Oilers. It’s not about quantity, but rather about quality. The Oilers have some really nice pieces, honest, but they need a supporting cast of players. Problem is, the supporting cast needed happen to be for key roles.
MacT is right, he only needs to add about 20% of a roster, but it’s a vital 20%. This summer is very important for MacT, he needs to make it count. Add those five players above and improvement will happen, promised.
Todd Nelson:
A lot of talk regarding the interim coach. I’m an advanced stat guy, but I’m not sure I’m completely buying them in Nelson’s case. The stats suggest that Edmonton was better under Dallas Eakins, but my eyes tell me no way. Eakins had this team playing a solid possession game, while Todd Nelson has them taking a dip in the category since he took over.
Here’s the thing, Nelson has eleven wins, while Eakins only mustered out seven in more games. The win/loss column favors Nelson, and it really isn’t close. Nelson has also got the power-play clicking and the penalty kill on the upswing, which is absolutely massive for future success.
More importantly, Edmonton is playing loose and finally having fun. I have nothing to confirm this, but I believe that locker-room was not a fun place under Dallas Eakins. That seems to have changed with Nelson, and it’s showing on the ice with looser play. The guys are comfortable.
Nelson also has the Oilers’ young players turning around. Jordan Eberle looks like a different player under Nelson, while Anton Lander has finally emerged as an NHL center. Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and Justin Schultz have all shown massive improvements too, while Nail Yakupov has turned it around.
How he is doing it, I don’t know, but Nelson has unlocked a lot of solid young talent in Edmonton. That counts for something.
Barring a miracle (Mike Babcock, Ken Hitchcock), Edmonton should bring Nelson back full-time next year. He got the Barons winning, and has the Oilers moving in the right direction. He’s winning me over, no debate there.
Weekend:
Oilers host the Blues on Saturday, and I won’t lie, I’m excited. The Oilers played the Ducks well last Saturday, and found a way to beat the Wild on Tuesday. If Edmonton plays with this confidence, they should put up a decent fight against St. Louis. I’d love to see Edmonton go 2-1-0 in this next stretch against the Blues, Kings and Blackhawks. Finally beating a few powers from the West would be a nice touch for Nelson and his team.
Odds aren’t good, but we can hope.
Enjoy Friday my friends.
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