He’s The Man

There’s been a lot of talk about the Oilers goaltending situation this summer, and how the team needs to get a legit NHL starter for the 2013-14 season. Roberto Luongo, Corey Schneider, Jonathan Bernier and Mike Smith were all tossed around as options for Edmonton, while those same people tossed young Devan Dubnyk to the side.

Most don’t think Dubnyk is good enough for the spot, and most think that he ranks around 20-25 in terms of NHL starters. Personally, I couldn’t disagree more, and I think Devan Dubnyk really has the potential to be a good starting goalie at the NHL level. It’s a contract year for Devan, and the pressure will be on this season. I might be one of the few who feel this way, but I think Devan is about to break out.

The Oilers drafted Dubnyk in the first round of the 2004 entry draft, and have taken their time developing him. He cracked the NHL on a part-time basis in 2009-10, and ended up a full-timer in 2010-11. He’s played on some pretty bad hockey teams, and yet he has posted some pretty respectable numbers and those numbers keep improving each year.

Devan recently had a 2.57 GAA, down from his 2.67 GAA in 2011/12. It’s not a great GAA (23rd in the NHL) but it’s pretty respectable when you factor everything together. Sure, Devan gave up some soft goals that should have been stopped, but I can’t even count how many goals were scored against him as a direct result of terrible defense (See: Whitney, Ryan in OT Vs. Dallas). There were a lot of goals that it’s safe to say, weren’t Dubnyk’s fault.

Dubnyk’s GAA isn’t the best indicator for my point, so I’ll look at his workload and his SV% from this past season. DD had the fifth most saves among goalies this past season with 1042. That’s A LOT in just 38 games. Goalies like Jimmy Howard, Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Niemi and Ryan Miller rank with Devan in this area. That’s some pretty darn good company right?

To have that many saves, you have to be let out to dry quite a bit right? Correct. Dubnyk faced 1132 shots, which was good for sixth most in the league. That’s not exactly helping the goalie out, and with a workload like that, it’s easy to see why Dubnyk gave up quite a few goals.

Giving up that many shots will result in more pucks in your net. There were some that Dubnyk absolutely should have had, but there were plenty where the Oilers defense simply gave him no support and left him out to dry. For me, it’s tough to say Dubnyk can’t handle an NHL workload, because I think the stats prove he can.

With an improved blue-line in 2013-14, it’s safe to assume that the amount of shots Dubnyk faces will decrease in volume moving forward. That will only strengthen his play.

To me, the most valuable stat to tell a goalie on is his save percentage. Looking at last year’s numbers, this makes sense. Craig Anderson, Sergei Bobrovsky, Tuukka Rask, Henrik Lundqvist and all the other elite goalies rank at the top of the list, and it goes down in the tiers you would expect it to.

So where does Dubnyk rank in this area? Surprisingly to most Oilers fans, he ranks pretty high, clocking in at 12th overall with a SV% of .920, which is very good when you consider what I wrote above. That puts Devan in company with Viktor Fasth, Jimmy Howard, Kari Lehtonen, and Braden Holtby. Not awful company at all.

It also puts Devan ahead of Ryan Miller (NO, I’m not saying he’s better), Pekka Rinne, Mike Smith, Cam Ward, Roberto Luongo and Carey Price. If you ask me, the SV% stat shows that Devan Dubnyk is clearly a capable NHL level starting goalie.

Dubnyk isn’t the sexy name, I get that, but he’s a decent option for Edmonton, and should not be overlooked because of a few soft and untimely goals. When it is all said and done, a better team in front of him and less consistent pressure on him will improve his stats even further, and expose him as a solid goalie.

Dubnyk was far from the reason why Edmonton was losing games last season, and I think it’s wise for Edmonton to at least give him the starting job for his contract season. I think the fans, media and management might be surprised with the results in a positive way.