In Defence of Darnell Nurse

In Defence of Darnell Nurse

Darnell Nurse has been a somewhat controversial player since playing his first season in the NHL. While I’d personally describe him as a fan favorite (and for good reason), he’s taken a bit of flak from the analytics community since completing his rookie season. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not much of an advanced stats person. I have a very elementary understanding of “fancy stats”, and while I get the basics, there are people far smarter than me who’ve done a lot of great work in this area, and it’s a subject I’m still learning.

Rather than attempt to delve into the subject of how Nurse’s underlying numbers looked last season, I’ll instead refer readers to this piece by Jonathan Willis over at Oilersnation.com. I think it’s very well written and fair, and although I’m not sure we can accurately predict Nurse’s ceiling based on his rookie season alone, I think Willis has done a great job using the available data objectively.

What I will talk about is what I see in Nurse personally. I’m sure every advanced stat guru that is reading this is probably rolling their eyes right about now (if they’re even reading), but I do believe there is still a place in hockey for the “eye test”, and although I’ll admit Nurse struggled last season; I think there is a lot to be optimistic about.

So what is it I see in Nurse personally? First, let’s take a look at his scouting report courtesy of Hockey’s Future:

Talent Analysis

Darnell Nurse is a big, mobile, gifted blueliner who has a lot of Chris Pronger in his game. He’s an imposing presence on the blueline and has the tools to be successful at both ends. Beyond the bloodlines and support (aunt, father, mother are all elite athletes — uncle by marriage is Donovan McNabb), Nurse has it where it counts most — between the ears. He was a leader during his junior career, playing a key role in Sault Ste. Marie’s turnaround from a non-playoff team to a championship contender. Nurse continues to add strength and bulk to his ideal NHL frame. He is capable of playing in all situations and can log big minutes.

Future

Nurse has been a workhorse for Edmonton in 2015-16 — averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per game for the Oilers as a rookie. He is active in the middle of the play and is a strong presence at both ends of the ice. The Oilers continue to struggle in their own end but Nurse figures to be a big part of things as Edmonton continues to address its defensive weaknesses.

Notice anything alarming? I sure did. Averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per game as a defenceman, for the OILERS. Let that sink in.

The Oilers were by all accounts one of the worst teams in the league when it came to their defence. I don’t think anyone needs a bunch of crazy math charts to validate that statement. Nurse was thrown to the wolves in his first full NHL season, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he struggled as a result. Not everyone can be Drew Doughty.

It will also come as no surprise to most Oilers fans that this has been a trend with young Oilers defencemen over the years, and Nurse is no exception. We would do well to remember that Jeff Petry was doing a lot of heavy lifting himself out of the gate, long before he was ready for it. It wasn’t until a few years after his 1st NHL season that Petry started to put the pieces together, at which point the Oilers decided they didn’t need him for…reasons. I expect Nurse will take some time to develop as well (given that it’s generally accepted that most NHL defencemen have a longer development curve than forwards).

Nurse’s draft pedigree aside, it’s my opinion that we haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of what he can bring to the team. So what are some of his “intangibles”?

Toughness

Admittedly this is a no brainer. Nurse essentially put the league on notice last season that he wasn’t afraid of anyone, and would drop the gloves with some of the toughest players in the NHL, including his new teammate Milan Lucic. Nurse held his own with some very tough customers, and showed everyone he wasn’t afraid to stand up for his teammates (see the Roman Polak beatdown for reference).

However, he is much more than just a face puncher. He brings “functional toughness”, and for anyone who is still making excuses for the Hall trade by throwing Lucic into the equation (sorry, I just had to), that is something the Oilers were apparently lacking, and I would tend to agree. The team was too easy to play against for far too long. Other clubs would walk into Rexall Place, run over a star player or two, turn down a fight with Luke Gazdic, and then jump the next plane out of Edmonton with 2 points in their pockets. Nurse helps in that regard, and I’m not sure anyone can deny it.

Not only is Nurse able to drop the gloves, he plays a physical, mean brand of defence in his own end, and he’s not afraid to clear the front of the net. He’s tough in the corners, and he’s the kind of player you want around the net during a post-whistle scrum. Nurse brings the kind of sandpaper to the Oilers defence that they haven’t had since Sheldon Souray wore the oil drop, and despite what anyone might think about fighting in the NHL, it’s still a very physical league. Having a player of Nurse’s ability and toughness is very much a boon.

Untapped Offence

While a lot has been made of Nurse’s advanced stats, it’s important to keep in mind just how new he is to the league, with only 80 games played in the NHL. While I’d personally describe Nurse as a smart defenceman, he was guilty of making plenty of rookie mistakes last season. One of the things Nurse struggled with was his ability to make snap decisions in his own end (and occasionally in the offensive zone).

I’ve seen Nurse criticized on pinches where the puck bounced off his stick and behind him, and those are criticisms that seem petty to me, because in some of these cases, he makes the right play in the offensive zone, and suffers from a bad bounce. Although his decision making was shaky at times, one thing Nurse put on display was his speed and mobility.

This is one of the most underrated aspects of his game, and it doesn’t get near as much credit as it should. In the clip above, Nurse makes a play to get the puck in deep, then drifts to the right side and reads the play perfectly. He sees an opening to the left of the play and has the speed to get down low in time for the pass, leaving him wide open for a goal. Nurse has a lot of untapped offensive potential, and his skating is proof enough for me to make that statement. He’s also quick enough that if he doesn’t score on the play, he’ll have plenty of time to skate back to center ice before the rangers can (barring a bad bounce).

Where Nurse can struggle is when he pinches in deep behind the net with the puck. This is where I believe some of his underlying stats start to suffer, as he has a tendency to hold onto the puck just a touch too long when he’s below the goal line. Experience, maturity, and coaching will help in this regard, and I think we’ll eventually see Nurse’s 2-way game emerge as his career progresses.

It is FAR too early to write off Nurse’s offensive game. He’ll never be Erik Karlsson, but he has the tools to be a solid 2-way d-man.

Mobility

This ties into Nurse’s untapped offensive potential, but it applies in the defensive zone as well. One of the things I’ve noticed about the Oilers defence over the last few years is a black hole when it comes to defencemen that are capable of skating the puck out of trouble. While the Oilers have attempted to bring in guys like Sekera to address the problem, I’ve seen few Oilers defencemen with the ability to do it effectively. While Nurse no doubt had his struggles in his own end (often times due to snap decisions made while under the forecheck), one thing he did exceptionally well was identify when there wasn’t a transition play to be made.

Too often Oilers defencemen will either try to force a pass that isn’t there, or simply give up possession and chip it around the boards, off the glass, or just dump it into the O-zone. This is one area where I feel strongly that Nurse will improve the Oilers defence, as he seems to have the ability to identify when there isn’t a play to be made, find the gap, and skate the puck up the ice quickly. While this can backfire on him (as it did frequently last year for holding on to the puck for a little too long once he was in enemy territory), It’s a skill the Oilers are sorely lacking on the back end.

We don’t often see goals like this, but it’s one example I was able to find on youtube where Nurse reads the play nicely and uses his speed to skate the puck out of the D-zone, through the neutral zone on a change, and straight into the oppositions net. Now granted, he scores it on Dubnyk, but the basic principle is still there. If there isn’t a pass or play to be made that involves the forwards, the Oilers need a D-man that can skate the puck up the ice effectively:

Although this particular play results in a somewhat fluky goal for Darnell, it isn’t always about scoring goals. Most of the time, it’s about having the speed and vision to see an opening, skate the puck out of trouble, and hand it off to the forwards. This is something Nurse is more than capable of doing, due to his skill, vision, and mobility. His ability to do it without putting possession at risk will come with experience, and can only help the Oilers in the long run.

In short, while I understand some of the criticisms surrounding Darnell Nurse, I think it’s completely insane to give up on this player after one season. There is serious talent here, and including him as a throw-in in some crazy trade proposal is completely asinine. If rumors are to be believed, other teams have been sniffing around Chiarelli to see if Nurse is available, and he has so far stood by Nurse (something Oilers fans should consider doing as well, considering Nurse’s inexperience).

Give Darnell some time, people. You won’t regret it.

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PS: #BeatHisAss