The Rise and Fall of Anton Lander
Based on what Lander did in 2014-15, big things were expected of the Swede this season.
Lander began 2014-15 in the AHL, where he amassed 31 points in 29 games. In December, he was recalled by the Oilers and shocked the world by scoring 6 goals and adding 14 assists in 38 games. Then in the World Hockey Championships, Lander was Team Sweden’s first line center, tallying 3 goals and 4 assists in 8 games. The good times continued in the preseason when Lander scored a hat trick.
Impressive. Most impressive.
Now check Lander’s 2015-16 stats. Nope, that’s not a mistake. Zero goals and 2 assists.
What Happened?
When the season began, Lander reverted back to his old ways of not being able to shoot a puck into the ocean. He was eventually demoted to the fourth line where he found himself on a line with such talents as Luke Gazdic. If it was hard for Lander to score before, it’s almost impossible now with the quality–or lack thereof–of his linemates.
Lander might also have experienced some bad puck luck. His PDO is the second worst among Oilers who’ve played 20 games. (PDO is shooting percentage plus save percentage while a player is on the ice.)
Get Rid of the Bum? Not So Fast
There are at least three reasons why I think the Oilers should hold onto Lander.
First, Lander has been deployed as a fourth line center, and he’s performing as a fourth line center should.
Let’s compare Lander’s season with Boyd Gordon’s—the Oilers’ former fourth line center.
One positive about Lander’s season is his faceoff percentage: 54.5%–thirty-second among regular NHL centers. He’s also been useful on the penalty kill. His zone starts aren’t as severe as Gordon’s, but he’s certainly being deployed in a defensive role. Of course, comparing Lander with only Gordon might be cherry picking a bit, but I don’t think you’ll find many fourth line centers with gaudy offensive stats.
Second, Lander is still relatively young and inexpensive.
Lander is 24 years old, so there’s still potential for improvement. And his cap hit is under $1 million, which means he’s doing what a guy like Boyd Gordon does for a fraction of the cost. And in a salary cap league, that’s important. Having fourth liners that make $3 million is not ideal.
Third, Lander has the talent to be more than a fourth line center.
Lander does lead the Oilers in one important—though usually overlooked—stat: penalties drawn per 60 minutes. And he’s actually sixth in the entire league among players who’ve played at least 20 games! Also, Lander’s offensive production in the AHL and his success with the Oilers during the second half of 2014-15 suggest that he’s a player who can play with skill forwards.
Remember when Todd McLellan once talked about how Lander, Leon Draisaitl, and Nail Yakupov could possibly form a dangerous line? Those dreams have long been forgotten. But, in my opinion, it would be a mistake to give up on Lander now.
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