Jeff Petry, Friend or Foe?

Jeff Petry is a curious case. Petry is a player that has all the tools to be a top pairing guy.

Petry’s assets include:

-Size

-Strength

-Good First Pass

-Howitzer of a shot

-Shows moments of high hockey I.Q

-Active Stick

-Long Reach

-Speed

-Can log 20+ minutes a night

All of these are tools that could make for a very good defender. So what is the issue with him? Why can’t he take that next step into becoming the player we all felt he was going to develop into. We will go into stats later on. Right now, just a few observations by WATCHING Oilers games. Funny hey, actually commenting on a players ability, with good old fashion observation. It’s funny how stats are used so much to the point that it almost seems a lot of people don’t even watch full games. But back to Jeff Petry.

In his rookie season, I was in the group that thought he could very well be an excellent defender for the Oilers long term. His reach and stick in the right place was something to be amazed at. He made a good first pass and was excellent at skating out the puck. He seemed to, for the most part, make the smart play. Petry gained more ice time as the year went on, even I thought that was a good idea. He didn’t disappoint. Even though, very unjust, Petry even found comparisons to some very good defenders. His combination of speed, size and positional play were very well received in Oil Country.

His second year was up and down. he started the year in Edmonton, but was sent down the first few month. He seemed to suffer a mental laps, or maybe too many unjust expectations. But he seemed out of place. Lack of confidence was evident. Plus with guys like Potter, Smid, Gilbert, Whitney, Peckham and Sutton it was considered the best decision at the time. Even though some Oiler fans weren’t too happy. But after a short stint in the AHL he found himself called back up after a Sutton suspension and a couple injuries. He looked better than before. He was using his reach and active stick to constantly frustrate opposition players. He was shooting the puck more. He started to use his strength and speed to rub off players along the boards.

He played very well. Well enough that management decided to part ways with then whipping boy, Tom Gilbert. Petry played a very similar game to Gilbert, but showed promise of being a more physical player. He came and showed promise being a defender who could play both ends of the ice. While Petry might not have had the same offensive abilities, he showed more promise in his own zone. But with a huge upside that he could maybe end up being a good defender who could maybe pitch in 30 points a year. After Gilbert was traded for Nick Schultz, his ice time increased and he looked good in the process.

Then in a lockout shortened season, Petry levelled off. He played big minutes on a top pairing with Ladislav Smid. They took on some very tough competition. They also looked like players in over the heads, as were the rest of the team. They didn’t do bad, but were definitely in over their heads. A decent second pairing cast as a top pairing. Things were bound to struggle and they did. But were given the benefit of a doubt since no help was brought in, accept Justin Schultz. And they lost the Gilbert trade. Whitney was never the same and iced players like Potter and Peckham. Just a recipe for disaster.

Now, to this year. Jeff Petry has become the whipping boy of the Oilers AHL (if were lucky) level defence. But why? Back to plain observations. Petry has regressed a great deal this year. A big part of that has to do with his supporting cast. But some of it has to do with some simple things. Everybody jumps on him for his epic giveaways down the middle of the ice to the opposition. He has taken far fewer shots this year than any before, he’s only registered 78 shots. Which is disappointing since he owns a cannon of a shot.

When he does shoot the puck, he has a tendency to hit defending players. Thus causing an alarming amount of turnovers. His defensive positioning has also regressed. His all around game has taken a step backwards. Some of this is definitely due to being in over his head. While earlier thought to have the potential to become a top pairing guy, very unfairly. He is a good second pairing defender. He’s just like in way over his head. As are every player on the back end. Call it a bump in development. Either due to management (my vote) or playing over his head his first couple season. Maybe even being brought along by a defensive guy like Smid helped him.

No matter which way you look at it, this has been a very disappointing season for Jeff Petry. He’s become a whipping boy for an organization that hasn’t helped any players with poor management. He’s become the new Tom Gilbert or Ales Hemsky. A good player who will eventually be run out of town before he does reach his full potential. Or a good player who was miscast as a great player than never lived up to unrealistic potential. Either way, he’s got to be given some slack. While he might have regressed this year, he is obviously the best option on the back end we have right now. Or is he?

As I see it moving forward, on and NHL team Jeff Petry is a second pairing right handed defender. If you go by the “Babcock” true position philosophy which has worked well in Detroit and with Team Canada. So I think it’s fair to say you need three left side guys and three righty’s. This team clearly is missing it’s top pairing period. Not a single player on the roster is a top pairing defender. Period. Marincin could very well fill the second pairing option if he keeps his play up. If not he could split time with Ference and have them both play even minutes while Marincin is used on the PP and Ference on the PK. But that doesn’t matter, the left side is moot.

The issue is the right side. As it stands I think the organization is going to have to make a decision between Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz. Both players on and NHL calibre defensive corps fill the exact same need. While their styles are different, they are both a second pairing right handed defender. I am going to erase Petry’s first two season an compare Schultz and Petry the last two years. Petry is 26 and was 25 last year while Schultz is 23 and 22. So with his experience and age Petry should have the advantage. So Let’s take a look at last year. Also I am thowing the size difference out the window since Schultz is 6’2 188lbs and Petry is 6’3 195lbs. They are very close in size and weight.

Justin Schultz GP:48 G:8 A:19 Pts: 27 -17 PPG:4 Shots:85

Hits:15 Blocks:35 Take Aways:15 Give Aways:34

ESTOI/G: 17:39 SHTOI/G: 0:34 PPTOI/G: 3:12 TOI/G: 21:26

Jeff Petry GP:48 G:3 A:9 Pts: 12 +1 PPG:0 Shots:66

Hits:112 Blocks:86 Take Aways:32 Give Aways:46

ESTOI/G: 17:57 SHTOI/G: 3:21 PPTOI/G: 0:35 TOI/G: 21:54

Both players play a different role on special teams. Schultz is the offensive weapon while Petry plays the defensive side. Petry finished +18 higher than Schultz definitely jumps out. Schultz QB’ed the power play so while 4PPG’s is good, Petry can’t be knocked since he played a more defensive role. So for a defensive guy versus an offensive guy, we’ll call it a wash again. While Schultz had more points, Petry’s Hit’s and blocks where a lot higher. In a defensive role Petry had over twice as many take aways as Schultz. But the stat that evens things up is the giveaways. Schultz was never cast or said anything differently as a High Risk, High Reward player.

An offensive weapon from the back end. He ended up with 34 giveaways. About right for a player of his calibre. New to the NHL and always looking offense you can always expect to have a higher give away count. But Petry as a solid backend option had more, he registered 46. Alarming for a shutdown defender. While many would argue it’s because Petry played more than Schultz, that is incorrect. they were within 30 seconds in total time on ice. So surprisingly pretty even. One played like the offensive threat he was billed out to be. While the other played like the shutdown guy he has developed into, just with a high number of giveaways. But a wash. If you put aside the ages and career games played.

Now let’s take a look at the stats from this year.

Justin Schultz GP:65 G:9 A:19 Pts:28 -19 Shots:96

Hits:27 Blocks:94 Takeaways: 18 Giveaways:57

ESTOI/G: 19:01 SHTOI/G: 0:49 PPTOI/G: 3:33 TOI/G: 23:24

Jeff Petry GP:71 G:6 A:10 Pts:16 -16 Shots:78

Hits:158 Blocks:114 Takeaways:24 Giveaways:82

ESTOI/G: 17:34 SHTOI/G: 2:54 PPTOI/G: 0:54 TOI/G: 21:23

Usually an argument with Petry is he is being used more than any other defender. Thus causing him to become rendered ineffective. The ice times would disagree with this. Schultz is playing an average of 2 minutes more a game than him. Only in his second year he has surpassed Petry on the depth chart. But is this a just statement? Let’s take a look. Throw TOI out the window.

An issue I have is how many shots Petry has taken this year. He has only taken 12 more shots this year than last, with 23 more games played. That’s not good enough. Not just for a guy in the top four on and NHL team. But especially since he has one of the, if not the hardest shot on the hockey team. Petry still is a more physical player than Schultz, which isn’t surprising. Registering 158 hits so far this year. Schultz will never be a bruiser and only has 27. Not surprising. But Schultz has really improved on one defensive stat. He jumped to a very decent 94 blocks so far this year. Not to bad at all, and only 20 behind Petry in that aspect. A very good improvement.

But the thing that makes me lean towards Schultz as the long term answer, is the giveaways. As I’ve said before, Schultz is a High Risk, High Reward player. For every few great rushes he will give up an odd man rush on a bad pinch. Thus is the nature of the “Offensive Defenseman”. He has registered 57 so far this year, which, while ever so slightly better than, pretty much on par as last year. While his PPG has dropped a bit, he has improved his block shots. So with simple stats he is trying to improve his defensive game, even though not as fast as he would want.

But Jeff Petry has already had 82 giveaways this year. That is absolutely insane. He has never put up big point totals, so his upside is his defensive play. He has increased his physicality, but it seems he is suffering in his defensive play. At this point, Petry is playing a High Risk, Low Reward game. As the year has gone on he has found himself not playing against opposition’s top players as he had last year. He still faces tough opposition, but is now sharing the load with Schultz.

The problem being right now, even playing 2nd pairing minutes this year, he is still being exploited every game. You could put it up to having an off year or playing over his head. But while some are casting him as a second pairing defender in over his head playing top pairing minutes. He is actually PLAYING second pairing minutes and in over his head. It could very well be a combination if a lack of experience or confidence. But non the less, he is still being exploited.

I am not saying Petry has to go right now. Far from it. He is the best option we have behind Justin Schultz. By a very far margin. But when this team does take a big step towards becoming an actual playoff team, a choice will have to be made. Petry is already 26 years old and should be entering the best years of his career. But has regressed. While Justin Schultz is only 23 years old and brings something to the table that every team covets, offense. He has also shown strides of becoming decent in his own end. So while, at the moment, it seems it’s Schultz and Petry for next season. To become a legitimate playoff hockey team, the choice will have to be made which player is going to be a part of that. It can’t be both.

Unless people start saying Petry is a bottom pairing guy playing over his head as a second pairing guy. It could happen, some Oiler fans seem to try and justify everything to do with a 29th place team. But I’ll just ask you this:

MacT mentioned having a stop gap in place next year to let players like Nurse and Klefbom develop properly. While not ideal since all our top prospects SHOOT LEFT. Still, could one of the stopgaps very well be Jeff Petry?

Thank you so much for reading! Follow me on twitter @shawn_kelemen and let me know what you think. Have a great day!