One of the big issues facing the Oilers this off-season is how to fix the 2C spot. Even on the assumption Sam Gagner stays with the Oilers, it is glaringly obvious he can’t play center. So, casting about the NHL looking for dreams and possibilities to fill the role, my eyes landed on Jordan Staal.
In what follows, I take an in-depth look at the player.
As always, The Hockey News provides a nice, clear synopsis of the player’s pro scouting report:
(click all photos to embiggen)
This just about covers it. As we’ll see, Staal is a very good, big two-way center. He lacks true impact offensive skills, however. On a very good team, he’s an ideal 2C (well, not on a team with Crosby and Malkin).
Vital Stats
Staal will be 26 this September 10th. 6’4″ 220. Left-shot Center.
Drafted 2nd Over-all by the Penguins in 2006 (This is the Jeff Petry draft year). From a Pens perspective, this pick is a bit of a frustration point. While Staal is a very good hockey player, the next three picks were solid gold impact players: Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
This is a damn big guy though. And a Center. He’s still young enough to enjoy the dance parties of winning with the Oilers’ young cluster. He’s perfect from this POV.
Cap Hit
He’s in the midst of an exorbitantly long contract (10 years, of which he has 9 left). He’ll be 34 (turning 35 shortly) when it expires. He’s set to make an even 6M per year, with the same cap hit every year of the deal. He has a No Trade Clause (the terms of which are unclear).
Given the precipitous rise in the NHL cap we are expecting over the next several years, this deal has the potential to round into value somewhere down the road. At the moment, it looks like a pretty penny for a guy that has only hit 50 points (on the nose) once in his 8 year NHL career.
Boxcars
2013-13 (CAR): 82 15-25-40 (.49 PPG); 5×5 P/60 1.26
2012-13 (CAR): 48 10-21-31 (.65 PPG); 5×5 P/60 1.74
2011-12 (PENS): 62 25-25-50 (.81 PPG); 5×5 P/60 2.30
You can check out his standard boxcars over the years here. (One sidebar of note: Like Nail Yakupov, Staal enjoyed a crazy luck-fuelled rookie season of shooting percentage, which also like Yakupov was followed by a highly predictable collapse.)
In terms of straight boxcars, it’s fairly clear that Staal has never quite reached the high water mark expected of him. And, looking at the trend since he was traded away from the offensive powerhouse of the Pens, his numbers have taken a haircut. The importance of looking at the even strength points per 60 number is that it brackets off concerns about PP time and time on ice in general. The evident drop in production is of concern.
Even Strength TOI
2013-14: 5×5 TOI/60: 14.50
2012-13: 5×5 TOI/60: 15.05
2011-12: 5×5 TOI/60: 14.73
At evens Staal’s TOI is in the range over his past three years. There’s no strong outlier here, even accounting for his last season with the Pens.
Power Play TOI
13-14 5×4 TOI/60: 2.19
12-13 5×4 TOI/60: 2.23
11-12 5×4 TOI/60: 1.96
On the power play, Staal’s TOI has actually remained fairly consistent and even taken a bump forward. That makes sense. After all, in Pit he was buried behind a pair of pretty damn good centers.
Short Handed TOI
13-14 4×5 TOI/60: 1.54
12-13 4×5 TOI/60: 2.08
11-12 4×5 TOI/60: 2.62
Short handed, Staal’s TOI has taken a hit year-over-year. In Edmonton, behind Nugent-Hopkins, I think it’s fair to say the opposite would be the case. He’d probably see his PP time drop somewhat and have to carry a heavier load undermanned.
Underlying Numbers 2013-14
CorsiOn: 8.48 (3rd on team); CorsiRel: 12.0 (2nd on team)
In terms of puck possession, when Staal is on the ice, the ‘Canes are heading deep into bliss. This is a very good set of numbers.
Let’s have a look at his Extraskater Player Usage Chart:
(Note: The Staal we are after is the one cut in half by the vertical line)
Here we can account for a variety of other on-ice elements. Staal straddles the “shut-down” and “two-way/optimizing” quadrants. In effect, this means he’s facing moderate to hard competition and doing so without the benefit of cherry zone-starts (though they certainly could be worse).
Now, let’s have a look at his WOWY numbers (with or without you numbers tell us how players do in terms of Corsi For % with and without a given teammate. Basically, it gives us a sense of who was helping and who was hurting his team).
Oooooo! Yum! Now, that is one pretty looking graph. If you weren’t impressed with Staal’s Corsi numbers, these WOWY numbers should push you over the edge. Every single player who played at least 100 5×5 minutes with Staal did better, often significantly so, with him than without him (excepting the bizarrely reviled Alexander Semin).
Underlying Numbers: Career
Let’s look at his behind the net player card for his NHL career.
(Ignoring Playoff data) Outside of his rookie year, Staal has enjoyed a steady and long career of good possession numbers. When he’s on the ice, the puck has a history of going the right way. At his age (about to turn 26), barring injury we should expect these good results for a long time to come.
If we look at these numbers graphed in a player usage chart (provided by some kind of ninja)
(note: “s” after the name indicates “season” and “p” indicates “playoffs”)
This graph animates his possession numbers (I’ve used CorsiOn here; by color: blue = good; red = bad) and contextualizes them by way of zone starts and quality of competition. In regular season play, Staal has mostly enjoyed two-way/optimized zone starts against moderate competition.
Let’s look at his WOWY chart for his two years with Carolina:
This chart is basically a mirror image of the one above. On Carolina, Staal drives the possession bus when on the ice. So, let’s see what his last two years in Pittsburgh were like, maybe there’s something interesting there.
Here we can see a slightly more mixed bag. While it remains clear that Staal is a very good possession player (he doesn’t dip wildly out of key when apart from his betters), he didn’t dominate his teammates in Pit like he does in Carolina.
The Big Matzo Ball
Is he available?
Well, he was made available once before. He forced the hand of the Penguins by turning down the same offer he signed with the Canes. Here’s a good re-appraisal of the trade by Andrew Luistro. The Canes paid in full for Staal. And, while the old song remains the same (the team that gets the better player, wins the trade), it is never easy to part with high draft picks and valued prospects. Still, Staal has enjoyed a lot of success with the Canes.
As recently as Janurary 4th of this year, the Sun’s Bruce Garrioch was reporting that the (now former) Canes’ GM Rutherford (now with the Pens, perhaps ironically considering today’s subject matter) “is willing to trade anybody with the exception of centre Eric Staal and his brother Jordan Staal.”
Since then, Rutherford has moved on. Ron Francis has taken over as GM and hired former Oilers’ AGM Ricky Olczyk as AGM for the Canes. Jordan’s brother Eric has also been placed on the trade block.
In this environment of change, it seems plausible that Francis and the Canes may be open to parting with Jordan. And, the presence of Oilers’ jilted lover Ricky Olczyk may help grease the wheels (NHL decision makers love dealing with old friends).
Still, it seems implausible that the Canes would part with both of their top two centers in one off-season. Doesn’t it?
Indeed, just today, Chip Alexander is reporting that Francis doesn’t “foresee a major makeover.” In the very next breath mind you, Alexander suggests, “Francis may entertain offers and be open to trades.”
If they were willing to embrace crazy, the Oilers should be on the phone pretty damn quick asking the Canes which first round pick they want, this year or next year’s. Pay all damn 6 piece of silver in the bag.
[A note: Horace Silver passed away this Wednesday. Horrible news. Silver was peerless when it comes to writing jazz hooks and grooves. He will be missed.] [adsanity id=1808 align=alignnone /]Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
