Just Say No To Rasmus Ristolainen

Insanity: The definition of insanity, is, doing the exact same thing over and over again, expecting stuff to change. That. Is. Crazy.

In June of 2016, the Edmonton Oilers elected to make a trade that has haunted the franchise ever since, dealing future Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for shutdown defender Adam Larsson. Larsson, a very solid player who is a proven top-four defender, was the target for an Oiler team desperate to add help on the back end.

The price was high, however, and Edmonton’s defense is STILL an issue three years later. Is it Larsson’s fault that ex-GM Peter Chiarelli pulled the trigger on that deal and never acquired a top-four puck mover? Nope, it isn’t at all. That said, that is the trade that people continue to harp on as the Oilers flush another wasted season down the drain.

Now, the talk is about adding a legit top-pairing defender to the mix in Edmonton. The piece going the other way? Now it is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being tossed around by certain members of the Edmonton media cartel. Same as it ever was.

From Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal:

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The Edmonton Oilers have just three top-six NHL forwards on their roster. Nugent-Hopkins is one of those three, along with franchise pillars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Trading him for a top-pairing defender (who isn’t actually a top-pairing defender) would be a fatal mistake. The Oilers need to be adding speed and skill to their forward group, not subtracting it for players who are perceived to be good but actually aren’t.

Trading Nugent-Hopkins should be a non-starter. You build around him, McDavid and Draisaitl up front, adding as much speed and skill to the forward group as you can between now and early October. Don’t trade Nuge, don’t even think about it if the return is as poor as Ristolainen.

Insanity:

I understand the premise of Matheson’s tweet, but if you trade RNH it has to actually be for a top-pairing D. Rasmus Ristolainen isn’t, never has been, and probably never will be that player. Three years after dealing Hall for a prayer in Larsson, the Edmonton media is essentially pushing for the same damn thing.

Ristolainen is an NHL defender, but likely at best a number four. Here is a look at Ristolainen’s scouting report via the Sports Forecaster.

Has excellent size (6-4, 203 pounds), a big shot, shutdown ability and some physicality to his game, so he can be an all-around defender. Skates very well, produces good offensive numbers and can log big minutes. Needs to improve his overall play without the puck and defensive-zone coverage in order to become an elite, all-round defender at the NHL level. Must also keep things simpler, since he can overplay the puck.

Ristolainen has an absolute bomb of a shot and can put up points on the powerplay, but that’s about the extent of his positive traits. Moving the puck is his biggest asset but defensively he’s been a massive liability for the Sabres over the years. I don’t really value the +/- stat, but Ristolainen is a -42 this season and a -144 over the course of his career. That’s really bad.

His Corsi For % this season is a poor 47.6%, but it is still better than his career mark of 44.5%. Compared to the rest of his team, he struggles. He’s got a Corsi Rel of -2.7 this season and -2.1 throughout the course of his career. Yes, he’s been on some really bad teams but he still manages to finish as one of the worst possession players on the Sabres year in and year out.

He handles big minutes (24:42 TOI per game) but doesn’t exactly play them well. Watching a decent amount of Sabre games, Ristolainen looks lost most nights. He’s overwhelmed on the ice and struggles with defensive coverage.

I’m not sure if it is an issue of Hockey IQ, too much ice time or the fact he’s just not that good, but Ristolainen has not been able to handle a top-pairing role in the NHL. On a good team, he could probably take a big role on the powerplay and play on the second-pairing with a defensively responsible partner.

The Oilers aren’t that kind of team, they don’t have the ability to shelter Ristolainen and they certainly don’t have the assets to take that gamble. He’s not a top-pairing defender, and paying a premium to acquire him would be a massive mistake.

The Edmonton Oilers spent three straight summers bleeding talent out at an alarming rate. Dealing RNH for a player like Rasmus Ristolainen would be the next deal in a long line of terrible trade losses. Stay away from this kind of deal, for the love of all things holy.