The end of July is here, and the Oilers still have one RFA remaining. Last year it was Sam Gagner who stayed unsigned until late in the month before agreeing to a three-year deal, while this year it is Justin Schultz who remains unsigned late into the hot summer months.
The Oilers are a little over a month from camp, and just about done putting the finishing touches on a roster that should be improved and lead to some sort of move up the standings. Schultz, whether we like it or not, is going to be part of that team.
With so many young defenders with the same level of experience and with the same skill-set signing deals, what can we expect the impending Schultz deal to look like? Let’s take a look at all the factors and try and come up with something reasonable.
The Player:
Justin Schultz was highly regarded when he spurned the Anaheim Ducks back in the summer of 2012 and hit the open market. The former second round pick decided to sign with the Oilers over 28 other suitors, and was hyped as the modern day Paul Coffey by some.
To a degree, that comparison isn’t that far off. By that, I’m referring to the style, NOT the production, so don’t get that confused. Schultz is a dynamic offensive defender with a great wrist shot, excellent passing ability, and killer offensive instincts. He’s got great skating and the ability to put up a lot of points and join the attack, but he struggles defensively.
He’s had problems with positioning in his first two seasons in the NHL, and has been an inconsistent at best defender. The way he’s currently playing defense, he’s a third pairing option that should be getting lots of power-play time and should be getting a zone start push and a defense first partner.
Schultz hasn’t turned into the terrific defender many thought he would be, but his career is very young and he has shown some flashes of absolute offensive brilliance these last two seasons.
He’s certainly got a future, and he can be valuable to the Oilers.
The Expectation:
I think we can realistically expect a better season from Schultz this year. His ice time will likely go down a bit thanks to the signing of Mark Fayne on the right side of the defense. The addition of Fayne, a legit top-four guy with success against top opponents out east, likely will also help ease the assignments for the young Schultz.
Less ice time and more manageable opponents will help set him up for defensive success, while new coach Craig Ramsay will help not only his defense, but his offense as well.
It’s probably realistic to expect that Ramsay, a great teacher who has helped so many defenders mature, will help Schultz learn his position better. Ramsay will also run the power-play, and we can probably expect some improvement here too, helping the offensive totals of the young puck-mover.
The Contract:
Bob Stauffer, host of Oilers Now, and Mark Spector, Sportsnet analyst, both beleive that Schultz will end up with a bridge deal, likely in the two-year range. Both of these guys are highly connected and usually right when it comes to Oilers news. CBC’s Elliotte Friedman mentioned a bridge deal for Schultz as well in his 30 thoughts piece last week.
A bridge deal for Schultz could be something similar to the contract signed by PK Subban prior to the lockout shortened 2013 season. PK, a highly talented young defender with some defensive questions at the time, ended up settling on a two-year deal with the club with a $2.875 M cap hit per season.
That Subban deal ended up being a total bargain, and PK ended up becoming one of the NHL’s top defenders. Schultz likely won’t be winning the Norris this coming year like PK did in year one of his deal, or become an elite blue-liner like Subban within the time of the deal, but the bridge deal should be similar.
PK had some real offensive talent and was posting pretty good numbers, but had some serious defensive question marks, just like Schultz does now. In this regard, these two are similar cases in regards to working towards a bridge contract.
If the Oilers want to go this route with Schultz, and it appears that they do, this is a contract they should show to his agent. If Edmonton can lock him up to “prove it” bridge deal at a cap hit between $2.5 M and $3.2 M per year, it should be considered a great move.
If Edmonton wants to go longer term, the contract signed by Jake Gardiner and the Maple Leafs earlier this week likely serves as the marker. Gardiner’s deal will pay him $4.050 M per year on the cap for the next five years, a solid contract considering the player.
If Edmonton wants to buy some UFA seasons from Schultz and lock him up longer term like star players Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, this is the deal to base it off of.
Gardiner is the better player at this point, but the salary would likely need to be very close to get Schultz to sign away the next five years of his career. Somewhere between $4 M per year and $4.5 M per year should get it done.
What’ll It Be?:
It’s anyone’s guess what Justin Schultz will actually sign for, but it’s quite clear the Oilers want to do a bridge deal of around two-years with the young puck-mover. That’s likely the smart move, and it’s exactly what I would do. Schultz has shown some excellent offensive ability, but has yet to really learn the defensive game at the NHL level, and still makes some key mistakes.
A two-year deal allows Edmonton to truly see what they have, and allows Schultz to build his value up for a big payday as a RFA in the summer of 2016. A cap hit similar to PK Subban’s previous deal is likely what Edmonton should be shooting for, and I’m thinking we’ll see something around two years and $3.5 M per season in the coming weeks.
What say you Oiler fans?
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