King Sam? Not So Fast

TSN’s Bob McKenzie has mentioned that the LA Kings have shown interest in Oilers forward Sam Gagner, who is very much on the market. CBC’s Elliotte Friedman also reported this, saying that the Kings are hot in pursuit of Gagner, but want Edmonton to eat some money.

The Kings scoring has dried up at an alarming rate, so their interest makes a ton of sense, but does a deal between these two sides make a ton of sense? On the surface, I’m not sure it does.

The Edmonton Oilers are not going to move Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, or Justin Schultz, and it’s highly unlikely that both Jordan Eberle and Nail Yakupov go, although it’s totally possible one of them is moved. The guy left on the outside is Gagner, and it is no secret the Oilers are open to dealing him, we know that much.

We also know the Oilers want a top-six forward or a top-four defender for Sam, which sounds about right. The days of moving key players for picks and prospects is, thankfully, gone. Do the Kings have these assets to give without hurting their Cup chances?

Up Front:

The Oilers top-six next year will include Hall, RNH, Perron, Eberle and likely Nail Yakupov. That’s A LOT of skill, but not nearly enough size. They need a big center in the worst way, which is where a Gagner trade comes in. Ideally, a guy like Travis Zajac or Patrice Bergeron is on the second line, but that isn’t happening.

The Kings aren’t going to move centers Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar or Jarrett Stoll right now, so Edmonton can’t fill that hole with this deal. Mike Richards would be a darn good second line center too, but again, the Kings are not going to move him within the division, and aren’t going to move him right now.

As for other possible top-six options? Well there really aren’t any. Dustin Brown would be unreal, but isn’t going to be traded, so forget it. Edmonton’s best bet in getting a forward is to get a decent 3rd liner here.

Dwight King sticks out as a possible option, as he is big, physical, young and puts up enough offense to be a decent player. He certainly is the best looking option. Jordan Nolan is another big player, but would need more coming back with him.

There’s always Kyle Clifford, but the value there is not even close. Clifford is a fourth liner and really wouldn’t help in the grand scheme of things.

Around Back:

The Oilers need, like in the worst way, a few top-four defenders. Oh, did I mention one of them must be a top-pairing option? Yeah, it’s not going to be easy, but this is the other possible return for Gagner. You can forget the top-pairing option here, as Drew Doughty is not going ANYWHERE, nor is Slava Voynov.

That leaves guys like Willie Mitchell, who the Kings would likely prefer to keep and doesn’t really help with what Edmonton is looking for, Robyn Regehr, which is kind of the same thing as Mitchell, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin and Matt Greene.

We’ve crossed out Mitchell and Regehr, and can cross out Martinez too. He’s young yes, and has some size, but he’s another bottom pairing defender and really won’t solve any of Edmonton’s questions. Jake Muzzin is an attractive option, as he is young, decently big and can handle top-four minutes. He’s the ideal target on the back end.

Pending UFA Matt Greene is an option too, and is reportedly out there for the right price. I liked Greene during his first stint in Edmonton, but I’m not sure he is the answer here. He’s not really anything more than a number four defender, and that’s not what Edmonton needs. Andrew Ference and Justin Schultz can handle that role, and Greene shouldn’t be playing much higher than 3/4.

Sooooo:

When looking at the LA Kings, it’s quite easy to see why they are interested in a play-maker like Sam Gagner. That said, there really isn’t much that Edmonton should be interested in from LA, and when I say that, I mean from the realistically available options.

The Oilers need size in their top-nine and help in their top-four on the back end. Jake Muzzin provides that on defense, while Dwight King provides that up front. The only way a deal between these two makes sense from an Edmonton perspective is if one of those players is coming back in return. I for one do not see it happening.

Sam Gagner is very likely to get traded, his name has been out there for a while and it makes a ton of sense. I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened soon either to be honest. I buy the Kings having interest, but I just don’t see a match here. Teams like the Islanders, Lightning and even Panthers make as much sense and have more to offer for the Oil.