Legitimate First Pair Shut Down Guy

Ever since Chris Pronger took his ball and went home Edmonton fans have waited for a big minute shut down defenseman. In more recent times this player need has added the additional requirement of right handedness. Various re-treads, kids, and experiments have been tried without success; the team was never able to develop or acquire a player who could play half the game against the other team’s best offensive talent and excel. A player who fits this description is finally going to wear the orange and blue starting in September. That player is Adam Larsson.

Larsson played the most brutal minutes of any player in the NHL last season. It is not even open for debate; of defensemen who played at least 60 games he, along with his partner Andy Greene, started almost 70% of their shifts in the defensive zone. The more than twenty-two minutes he played a night were mostly tough defensive minutes in a division which features Crosby, Ovechkin, and Tavares. No other player was even close in this regard and the notion that he is not a legitimate top pairing defender is disingenuous.

Adam Larsson will never be mistaken for this generation’s Bobby Orr nor should it be surmised from the opening paragraph that he will have an all around game at the level of Chris Pronger. However, Larsson played last season for a team that gave up 454 more shot attempts than it created over 82 games while starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone. Larsson’s coaches tasked the young rearguard with preventing goals not creating them. When combined with an average of about 10 seconds of power play time per game the table was not set for huge offensive production. The special teams time he did receive landed Larsson in 4th spot in the league among defensemen (who played at least 60 games) in short handed time on ice per game with 3:20.

Offensive production aside Larsson compares favorably with many of the elite defensemen in the game. The chart below is not an exhaustive list. It was created to compare Larsson with some notable names around the NHL. Below the main chart displays some of Edmonton’s defensemen from last season.

When comparing average time on ice per game Larsson (22:30) was ahead of players like Dougie Hamilton (19:46) and Aaron Ekblad (21:40). He was on par with guys like: Travis Hamonic (20:43), Brent Seabrook (22:49), Kevin Shattenkirk (22:25), and Victor Hedman (23:03). The players on the list who saw more ice (Keith, Subban, etc) than Larsson benefited from being regulars on their team’s power plays.

Larsson’s shot attempt differential (SAT/Corsi) may jump out at the reader in a negative way. This number needs context. For example Brent Seabrook, who many Oilers fans were hot after during the summer of 2015, also had a negative number in this stat line. When you consider he played for a team with positive differentials for both shot attempts and goals (+94 & +26) his number is actually far worse. Especially when you consider Seabrook was given a zone start push (52.48% of his shifts started in the offensive zone).

Larsson did not play for the Chicago Blackhawks but rather the New Jersey Devils. The Devils had a -454 shot attempt differential for the season and their team goal differential was -24. Larsson’s zone push was in the other direction from Seabrook’s with the young Swede starting only 31.82% of his shifts in the offensive zone (almost 70% in his own end). For a frame of reference the Oilers had a team shot attempt differential of -165 and a team goal differential of -42. Despite having almost 300 more shot attempts against their net the Devils finished with two more wins than losses (38-36-6) and were 18 goals better than the Oilers in terms of team goal differential (+/-).

It is also interesting to note that despite the tough minutes Larsson played he didn’t turnover the puck at a rate as high as the other defensemen listed. His 27 giveaways (GVA) over 82 games were the lowest among the players in the chart above. The lowest on the Oilers from last season was Larsson’s countryman Oscar Klefbom with 31 but he only played 30 games. (*edit* as an astute reader below pointed out it was in fact Reinhart with 26 giveaways in 29 games not Klefbom with 31 in 30 games who had the least for the Oilers)

Larsson is not elite in terms of point production or flash but the numbers indicate that he is a capable first pairing option in a defensive role. Along with former teammate Andy Greene they played the toughest minutes of any defenders in the league last season. Almost 70% of his shifts began in the defensive zone and were played primarily in a division which features some of the brightest offensive stars in hockey. At only 23 years of age Larsson is just coming into the prime years for most defensemen and has proven he possesses the ability Edmonton needs.

Side Notes

A mock draft from 2011 by the Hockey News had Adam Larsson going 1st overall to the Oilers. You can find it here.

Also you should look at this archived article from the Hartford Courant which discusses the Brendan Shanahan for Chris Pronger trade from way back in the mid-90’s. Some interesting parallels and definitely food for thought. You can find it here.