Oilers insider Bob Stauffer posted an interesting link on his twitter Tuesday night that was from an NHL.com article on the top overall pick. It presented two major points, both of which are of interest to Oilers fans.
The first point is that if the Panthers don’t move the pick, they’ll likely take defender Aaron Ekblad, who has been towards the top of the lists all season long. He fits a need in Florida, a team with a ton of good young forwards, but lacking prospects on the back-end. This wasn’t really surprising news, as many believe Ekblad is the most NHL-ready player and will have the biggest impact right away.
The most interesting tidbit for Oilers fans comes towards the end of the article, where it stated that the Sun-Sentinel in Miami is reporting that three teams have shown interest in the top pick, the Calgary Flames, Toronto Maple Leafs, and yes, the Edmonton Oilers.
We knew the Oilers would be busy this summer, trying to bring in pieces to make this a playoff team, and possibly making a big deal along the way, but this is rather unexpected if you ask me. The Oilers have a ton of solid young pieces both in the system and on the roster, and a move up in the draft doesn’t exactly scream looking to compete right now.
The Pros:
Look, Aaron Ekblad has a lot of potential and he could be a top-pairing defender for a long time in Edmonton, but there is absolutely no guarantee that it happens, and there is virtually zero percent chance it happens in the next two-three seasons, when Edmonton must start to put together winning seasons.
Ekblad would give the Oilers a very good defensive prospect that would bring a lot of different things to the table. He’d bring good size, good puck-moving ability, and great vision and positional skills. He’s a guy that can jump right in to the NHL too, and likely play on the bottom-pairing with an NHL veteran.
His potential is through the roof, he’s by a mile the best defender in this draft class, and was one of four players in CHL history to be granted exceptional status and enter the draft early(OHL draft). He was great at the World Juniors for Canada this past year, and was the best defender in the OHL as well. That’s no small feat.
He’s got a lot to like, a great skill-set, good size, and the ability to step right into the NHL next season. He’s going to take some time to develop and he likely won’t evolve into an elite NHL defender for a number of years, but he’d give the Oilers another exceptional young defender, and a potential stud moving forward. A lot of people love the idea of moving up and drafting this player.
The Cons:
I mentioned that a lot of people love the idea of moving up to draft this player, but I must admit that I am not one of those people. The cost to move up from the third overall pick to the first overall pick won’t exactly be dear, but it will likely cost the Oilers one of their very few assets that can be moved this summer that would be of interest to teams.
That could be forward Nail Yakupov, who would be a huge overpayment to move up just two spots, or it could be center Sam Gagner, who had a tough year but will likely bounce back this season, and would likely get more than a two draft spot upgrade on the open market.
The cost isn’t worth the return in this spot, it just isn’t.
Drafting Ekblad means handing him a roster spot next season. The Oilers aren’t going to move up to the top pick to draft a guy that could fill a major hole and then send him back to juniors, it’s just not like them to make the smart play like that. That would mean devoting a roster spot to another rookie, in addition to Martin Marincin, and likely Oscar Klefbom, with possibly Darnell Nurse being right there too.
The Oilers need to improve their defense, and in order to do that they must add a veteran top-pairing guy that can play 20-25 minutes a night and calm things down back there.
An 18-year old rookie in Aaron Ekblad is far from that player. The Oilers defense would have more potential than this past season, but in no way would it be an improved group of players. Ekblad simply can’t fill the hole Edmonton needs filled in the next few seasons, it’s giving up assets for potential yet again.
The Oilers need established players, go chase Andrei Markov, Dion Phaneuf, Christian Ehrhoff, Johnny Boychuk and guys like that with the assets, not another 18 year-old with a ton of potential. You can’t win with a bunch of kids, you just can’t.
On top of everything I’ve said, the Oilers have a ton of defensive prospects as well. Martin Marincin broke through last season and was terrific for the Oilers, showing real signs that he’ll be a player. Oscar Klefbom looked good in a late season call-up as well, improving almost nightly.
Young Jeff Petry and third-year defender Justin Schultz are parts of the future as well, while 2013 7th overall pick Darnell Nurse has tons of promise and is coming off of a great OHL season. Dillon Simpson has recently joined the system and looks like a player, while all three of Martin Gernat, David Musil and Jordan Oesterle have legit NHL hopes down the road.
Trading for Aaron Ekblad only adds to a group with a lot of promise, potential and competition instead of fixing the glaring hole that is most responsible for keeping this team down.
So?:
Look, Aaron Ekblad is a great prospect and will likely be a good NHL defender. That being said, this is a guy that is not yet ready to fill the holes Edmonton needs filled, and likely won’t be ready for a couple of seasons. Putting him on the roster and hoping he and the other kids can turn this thing north will only result in more failure and frustration. Take the assets and go get a proven, top-pairing veteran defender. You’ll be a better team for it.
There was once a guy named Frankie who went to Hollywood, and he gave some great advice that Craig MacTavish should use when thinking about trading for the top pick. Relax, don’t do it!!
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