Lucky Number Seven?

Tomorrow, the Oilers begin a seven game stretch that could be the turning point in their season. Spanning eleven days, 3 time zones and six opponents, this is definitely one of the strangest stretches of the season. It’s a weird mix of home and away games and includes travel from Edmonton to Philly to Buffalo to Minneapolis and then back home. With the Oilers sitting a mere 3 games over .500 (and in 3rd place in the Pacific Division), this 7-game stretch could make or break the season.

While the Oilers are doing well so far this season (at least in comparison to years past), they’re not yet running away with anything. The 7-2 start has given way to a much more “Oilery” 6-8-2 record. It’s hard to tell if the first few games of the season are the norm, or if this current streaky iteration of the team is what should be expected. After shutting out the Blackhawks back on November 21, they’ve lost twice to the Coyotes and once to the Flames. Last night’s came in Winnipeg put a stop to the skid, but even the start of that game was sketchy at best.

Seven Minutes Games to Midnight

This stretch is critical for a few reasons.

• All seven games are winnable
  For the first time in a number of years, Oiler fans (and players) are expecting wins instead of losses. The Oilers have a chance to end this mid-December swing with 20 wins. The strongest competition (based on record) is actually Columbus, and there’s no reason the Oilers can’t eke out a win against the Blue Jackets. Conversely, the Oilers have the potential to finish this stretch with 13 wins. With the inconsistencies in their play the last few games, it’s not really a stretch to think that each game could be a loss as well.
• Four of the seven games are against Western Conference opponents
  The games against Philadelphia, Columbus and Buffalo are important for purposes of accumulating points, but the 4 Western Conference games will more than likely have playoff implications. Giving up points to conference (and divisional) opponents hurts the Oilers more than giving up points to Eastern teams. Assuming that the Oilers next seven go like the previous seven, they’ll be 4-3 over that stretch and well-positioned to stay in the Top 3 of the Pacific division.
• The schedule mimics the intensity (and travel) of the playoffs
  The Oilers play their 3 road games in 4 days (Buffalo, day off, Philadelphia, Minnesota), and travel between time zones to do so. If the Oilers make the playoffs, they will have to do a fair bit of travelling because Edmonton is far from most other markets. having to traverse the continent in such a short time will force the Oilers to test their mettle and stamina against time changes and quick turnarounds.
• There is little time to dwell on mistakes
  Because there are so many games in such a short time, there is little opportunity to fix anything in any appreciable way. If the Oilers play like garbage in Philadelphia next Thursday, and then have to travel to Minnesota for the game Friday, there’s more than likely no opportunity for a morning skate to work out some of the issues from the previous game.
• There are two sets of back to back games
  While Cam Talbot has been the reason the Oilers have won at least a few of their games, back-to-backs present an interesting conundrum. Do you start Talbot for all seven and hope he can handle the workload, or do you give Jonas Gustavsson a game or two and hope that he doesn’t ruin things?

The Takeaway

This season is different from the past six in so many ways, and it’s not hard to tell that there’s been improvement. Goaltending is better, the defence is demonstrably better (thanks in part to Adam Larsson and Kris Russell, and also in part to Oscar Klefbom not being hurt again), and Connor McDavid is producing at well above a point-per-game pace.

There are still problems though, secondary scoring being one of them (Thursday’s game notwithstanding), and these next seven games will be a litmus test for the Oilers.