Make the Battle of Alberta Great Again

The Thrill is Gone

It’s no secret to Oilers and Flames fans alike that the famed “Battle of Alberta” has been anything but a battle lately. Going back to 2004, the Oilers are 23-49-1 against the Flames. That is an absolutely miserable record, and one the Oilers need to rectify if they wish to have any hope of making the playoffs. You simply can’t lose twice as many games as you win against a division rival year in and year out and expect to be within spitting distance of a playoff spot.

This last season, the Oilers went 2-3-0 against the Flames, which is a marked improvement over the 0-5-0 record they posted the previous year. It’s still not enough. The Oilers need to consistently win 50% of their games against division rivals if they want to see a significant climb in the standings.

So let’s take a look at both teams as they stand now. Will the Oilers have more success against the Flames moving forward? We’ll break down each team by 4 categories I pulled out of my ass and go from there: Scoring, Defence, Goaltending, and Truculence.

Scoring

While the Oilers have McDavid, they’ve lost scoring punch in the form of Taylor Hall, who led the team in points (again) last season. While they did manage to bring in Lucic, I’m not convinced Lucic can produce on the same level Hall can. Hall drove scoring lines largely without the aid of McDavid. While we can perhaps speculate that Lucic could put up better numbers this year playing along #97, I’m not sure he’ll be able to eclipse Hall’s production.

Looking at the Calgary Flames, They seemed to have much less trouble scoring goals than the oilers did last season, sitting well above average in goals for at 10th place in the league. The Flames potted 229 goals last season, compared to the Oilers (who were 5th worst in the NHL) with 199 goals for. As for goals against, the Oilers were slightly better than the flames, allowing 242 goals compared to the flames 257. A lot of that probably boils down to goaltending, which we’ll get to later.

Of the two teams, the Flames also had the edge in forwards with Johnny Gaudreau *spits* posting a very impressive 78 points (30 goals and 48 assists). No Oiler came close, although McDavid probably would have if he’d remained healthy.

Both teams added some young skilled talent at the draft, with the Flames getting their man in the form of Matthew Tkachuk and the Oilers having Finnish Phenom Jesse Puljujarvi fall into their laps. Whether either of these two young men make their respective squads out of camp remains to be seen, but I don’t expect either to have a significant impact on total goals for in either case.

I think in the end I’m going to call this a draw, but it’s entirely dependent on McDavid’s ability to stay healthy.

Edge: Draw

Defence

Looking at the defence of both teams, I don’t think there’s any question the Flames have the edge here. Part of the reason they fared so well in goal scoring is due to the points produced from their blueliners. Of the Flames top 10 point earners last season, three of them were defencemen (Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton, respectively). The Oilers by comparison only had one defenceman that managed to crack the top 10 point earners on the team in the form of Sekera. Andrej Sekera posted 30 points (6 goals and 24 assists). By comparison, of the 3 defencemen to crack the top 10 on the Flames scoring list, Dougie Hamilton scored the fewest points with a season tally of 12-31-43. Mark Giordano lead all Flames defencemen with 21-35-56

When you are getting the kind of production from your blueline that the Flames are, the odd defensive mishap is much more forgivable. Given the fact the Oilers posted a better goals against record than the Flames did, one might be tempted to point the finger at the defence, but as we’ll see with the next category, the Flames defence was far from the biggest problem.

While the Oilers added Adam Larsson, who should definitely help, there still isn’t any indication they will get more offence out of their blue line, which is something they desperately need to address.

Edge: Calgary Flames

Goaltending

This is one area where the Oilers had a distinct edge over the Flames last season. The Flames were a tirefire in net, with 3 goalies sharing duties (none of which could post a save percentage higher than .909). While the Oilers had their own issues in the crease early in the season, Cam Talbot eventually evened out his game and finished the year with a somewhat respectable .917 save percentage.

That was last season, however. The Flames picked up Brian Elliott from the St.Louis Blues and managed to do so for only the 35th overall pick in this year’s draft and a 3rd in 2018. I’m not sure if Peter Chiarelli was asleep at the wheel when this trade happened, because Elliott would have made a very nice addition to the Oilers, and a 1/2 punch of Talbot and Elliott would have made a formidable tandem.

How does Elliott compare with Talbot? See for yourself. While he struggled early in his career (like many goalies), since taking over the crease in St.Louis he’s posted very respectable numbers, and had a save percentage of .930 this season in 41 games played. Some might argue that his numbers could be inflated by the superior defence of the Blues, but given the fact that the Flames have a very respectable defensive core, I think he’ll do just fine in Calgary.

Edge: Calgary Flames

Truculence

Ahhhh. Good old “Truculence”. We can’t really dig up any stats here, so this is all conjecture on my part. I think the Oilers have become a significantly tougher team to play against since Peter Chiarelli has taken over. The additions of Pat Maroon, Zack Kassian, and now Milan Lucic means the days of the Oilers being pushed around are finished. Will that translate into more wins? I have absolutely no idea, but it certainly can’t hurt the team, and it can certainly hurt the opposition.

Calgary is definitely no slouch in this category. While they don’t really have any nuclear deterrents (not many teams do these days), they play a very tenacious game, and possess “team toughness”. They stand up for each other. Calgary is the type of team the Oilers used to be. You can never count them out of a game. They could be down 2 goals headed into the 3rd period, and there is still a good chance they will come back to tie it up. They don’t have any quit, something the Oilers used to pride themselves on, and are trying to regain.

In the end I think the addition of Lucic is enough to push the Oilers over on this one.

Edge: Edmonton Oilers

Conclusion:

I just don’t think the Oilers have done enough this summer to improve their ability to tilt the season series against the Flames in their own favor. I’m sure some will call me an eternal pessimist for this blog, and perhaps they are right. Maybe I am truly dead inside, and devoid of all hope. 10 years of suck will do that to a person.

However, I think I’m reasonable enough that if the Oilers had at least addressed their need for a right handed point producing defenceman, I’d be much more optimistic. As things sit with the current rosters of each team, I believe the Oilers will be doing well to win 50% of their games against the Flames next season.

Chiarelli still has a lot of work ahead of him if he hopes to make the BoA relevant once more. I know Flames fans would like to see it happen too. They’re tired of feeling sorry for us, and just want things back the way they used to be. They want the hatred and competition back, just like we do. I think fans around the NHL would love to see the BoA return to it’s former glory.

So I say to you, Peter Chiarelli: Make the Battle of Alberta Great Again.