Making The Grade – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

When I volunteered to do the grading of RNH, I figured it would be easy. He’s awesome right? 1st overall pick, producing close to a point per game here in his 3rd season. Man was I wrong. It seems that, in my eyes, any grade given to a player on this team is tainted by the team’s place in the standings. Last in the west. Do they really deserve to receive passing grades? I guess, but its with a big fat ole’ asterisk in my honest opinion. Regardless, and without further ado, here is my grading of the Nuge.

Offense: B Plus

As a twenty year old, RNH has produced 21 points in 25 games. He’s not breaking any records but I believe he has thus far produced a very reasonable amount offense for a first line center coming off of shoulder surgery, on one of the worst teams in the NHL. Here are the numbers.

What you have here is a young #1 center preforming well, but still learning his craft. He is being relied upon heavily at even strength but, as shown at Behind the Net, it appears that Eakins may be trying to get him away from tough competition a little as he’s only ranked 9th among forwards for average Corsi of opposition. That being said, he’s making pretty good use of his time as he is producing at a nice clip at even strength. He is also producing a decent amount on the PP and is keeping good company, sharing the 25th rank with none other than Pavel Datsyuk. The good new is that he appears to have recovered from his shoulder surgery and has been shooting with a little more authority and accuracy, especially when compared to last year’s 5.1% shooting. Ultimately the grade I have given him boils down to a couple of things. I think to be that dynamic #1 C teams need you either need to be playing the toughest opposition and producing near a point per game, or be completely dominating the lesser lights. From what I’ve seen and can gather, he’s not entirely doing either. Hence the B plus. He’s doing a good job but still has a way to go to be the dominant player the Oilers need.

Defense: B minus

Defensive play is a hard thing to quantify unless painstaking time is taken to watch what a player is doing on the ice very closely, and analyze the all the successful plays or blunders a player is making. (Un)Fortunately I don’t have the time to do so, so I will be looking to advanced stats (BTN and Extra Skater) to build my case and I’ll also use the work of David Staples and Bruce McCurdy over at the Cult of Hockey for help. The numbers.

For those of you who are advanced stats savvy I’ll let the numbers do the talking. For those of you who aren’t here is the breakdown.

Raw Corsi measures the shot attempts for and against. Anything below 50% is bad and the further down you go the… er… badder… it gets. Nuge doesn’t have the worst numbers on the team but something is amiss. The problem that people have with Corsi and like stats is that one player is solely not responsible for all the events that happen. But in my eyes that doubt doesn’t completely fly. As a unit of 5, it is the players job to limit shots and attempts in the hope of preventing scoring chances and subsequently goals. If the other team is getting more than you, you need to improve. That improvement will be accomplished through efforts like winning puck battles, clearing the zone and limiting turnovers, all done as individual players or as a unit. Luckily, for Mr. Nugent-Hopkins, I take his CF% number with a grain of salt as almost the entire team is below 50% this year. Among forwards he is in the lower half so he could be better. Extrapolating Corsi further you get in to the relative variety. This is a good thing for him as the team improves in the Corsi battle, even though slight. Even further along, figured out through what I assume are black magic calculations, is the average Corsi of the competition. Well Nuge you aren’t doing the heavy lifting so much, and seeing as you’re in the red, it is a little cause for concern. What Corsi can also be calculated in to is a rate per 60. So, if everyone was exactly like Ryan, the Oilers would end up at -5.34 every game. Or in other words, not that great but also not horrible. Another more basic way to look at his influence on the way things are is through plain old shot differential. If the team were all baby Nuges they’d be almost breaking even. That is good.

Now that I’ve confused you I’ll give you a little more of a direct approach. The guys over at cult of hockey tally up scoring chances, for and against, through hours of what I am sure is pain staking video review. What their numbers tell us is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the best center the Oilers have. His contribution, base on the perceived difficulty and duties of a center, is right about where you want it to be for at least a passing grade. He’s going along at +1.8 chances per 15 minutes of ice time. That means for almost every two chances he contributes to, he’s making an error on 1 against, and according to C.O.H. he’s doing a good job though not near domination. Add everything up an I think you can say a B minus is grade that is deserved. He could be better, but he’s not doing all that bad.

One short pause in the review. I really do think that some coaching consistency will help these young players along a great deal. Part of the struggles they are facing is due to the overturn of coaches. Like Gagner, Nuge is again learning a new system from a new coach. 3 coaches, 3 systems, 3 seasons is no way to start an NHL career. Being a slight young man finding your way among large experienced men is hard enough with consistency by your side. If Eakins is here to stay things will get better for these young men (I hope).

Team Play: A?

I don’t really know what to say about RNH and his team play and it is 2:41 am. He seems like a good teammate. He’s taken some big hits this year and bounced back up, which I’m sure the guys like to see. He always appears to be working hard out on the ice and is probably a lead by example sort of guy. He doesn’t strike me as the one who’d be real vocal in the room, but he’s probably well respected and listened to when he does speak. I don’t think will ever see him in a fight, so he’ll never rank to high on the grititude chart (which is fine by me) and he’s not overly physical. One thing is for sure, I like him. Give that boy an A!

Over All: B plus

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a joy to watch, and although his game may be a little more subtle than Hall’s and less flashy then Eberle’s and less controversial than Yak’s, I think we are watching the development of a player that will become a dynamic game changer and one that will dominate at both ends of the ice during the heart of his career. There are areas that will need improvement to bring him into the the true upper echelon of #1 centers, but the foundation for that is being laid and a little more patience is all we need. The Oilers haven’t had a true #1 center since Doug Weight left and I think young Ryan will more than fill the void moving forward. He’s made the grade;)

Thanks for reading.

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