Introductions, and Milan Lucic

Introductions:

Greetings and salutations, denizens of the intarwebz! My name is Kjell Iverson (pronounced CHell; no relation to Allen), and I’ve been given the opportunity to blog here at The Oilers Rig. I am a lifelong Oilers fan, and of hockey in general. My interests include getting caught in the rain and blaming Kevin Lowe for everything. I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you all and hearing why they are stupid. They say you’re supposed to establish your expertise in a subject within the first sentence or two of a written project, but as an Oilers fan I’m all about the self-deprecating humor.

On Lucic:

Now that the formalities are out of the way, I’ve chosen the subject of Milan Lucic for my first blog on the rig.

As all of you probably know by now, Lucic has supposedly stated that he is open to signing with the Oilers should he become a free agent on July 1st. The source of this claim is Pierre Lebrun:

“When we spoke late in the season there was quite a push between both sides to get a deal done before the playoffs started, and they got pretty deep but at the end of the day they did not get a deal done. Since then, there hasn’t been that much. Now I believe the LA Kings want to sign Milan Lucic, and I think Lucic wants to remain a King. But as we get closer to July 1, Lucic has grown open to the possibility of having to go to market. I think there’s a couple of teams we can count on to make an offer — his hometown Vancouver Canucks will make an offer, and so will, I believe, the Edmonton Oilers. Hey, there are worse things than riding shotgun for Connor McDavid. I believe Lucic would be open, and warm, to the idea of an offer from his former GM Peter Chiarelli in Edmonton. But right now, he wants to stay a King if they can get a deal done.”

Naturally, Oilers twitter lit up like a Christmas tree at this information. I even read tweets suggesting the Oilers should move Taylor Hall for a defenceman and sign Lucic (should he reach FA status). This is, in my humble opinion, a monumental mistake.

While I’m somewhat open to the idea of moving Hall, I don’t see many teams coughing up the kind of right-handed defenceman it would take to pry Taylor Hall from the Oilers. It would take at bare minimum a player like P.K Subban, and it seems unlikely the Canadiens would move him. Others have suggested Hall for Travis Hamonic, and while Hamonic is a solid top 2 defender, his offense (or lack thereof) doesn’t warrant a Hall trade.

In addition to who might actually be available should the Oilers put Hall on the trade block, there is the issue of money and term for any potential free agency signing that might include Lucic. Having averaged 6 million a season on his last deal, Lucic is holding out on the L.A Kings who have apparently offered him 5.5 million for 5 years (an offer I personally feel is within the range of his worth). If Milan Lucic wants to stay with the Kings, and is turning down 5.5 per at 5 years, what would the Oilers have to give him, should he indeed become a free agent? Assuming he wants a raise, what happens if Vancouver (who has also been linked to Lucic) decides to initiate a bidding war courtesy of the always brilliant Jim Benning? My guess is we’d be looking at having to pay Lucic 7 million a season for at least 6 years, and quite frankly I don’t believe that Lucic is worth it.

While it’s true the Oilers are in dire need of the skilled size and toughness that Lucic brings, Oilers fans would do well to remember that Connor McDavid’s ELC will expire in 2 more seasons, and the Oilers will need to dig deep into their pockets to retain a franchise player that can essentially name his own price. Is overpaying for a declining Lucic really the wisest thing to do when the very brand of hockey he is known for could see his body give out on him before he reaches the young age of 34? I don’t believe so, and I believe there are good reasons to state that Taylor Hall is the better player at present (and presumably down the road, given age differences).

Since entering the NHL, Taylor Hall has played 411 games and scored 318 points. Lucic by comparison has played 448 games (since then) and has 308 points to show for it. Does “toughness” really warrant a 6-7 million dollar a year contract for a player like Lucic when the Oilers already have an elite left winger in the form of Taylor Hall?

I am by no means suggesting the Oilers wouldn’t benefit from having Lucic on the team. He’d make an ideal 2nd line winger, and he might even be able to pot a few extra goals than the 20 he scored this season if he is playing with Connor Mcdavid. In fact, I’d prefer Lucic over Pouliot, and it’s not even close. I’m not sure the price tag is worth it in the long run though, and the oilers would need to move out cap space to make it worthwhile (while finding a way to keep Taylor Hall and still addressing the defence).

There has been some speculation all of this has simply been a ploy by Lucic’s agent to put some pressure on the Kings to get a deal done before July 1st, and I am inclined to agree. I think he’ll remain a King in all likelihood, but in the event Milan is a free agent come July 1st, the Oilers would do well to avoid overpaying him. The team is reasonably solid down the left side with Hall, Pouliot, and Maroon in the top 9. As I’m sure most can agree, the defence MUST be addressed first and foremost. Any additions like Lucic are a luxury and an afterthought, and certainly not worth overpaying for. I am truly of the opinion that the time where free agents will snub the Oilers is slowly drawing to a close, but that is entirely dependent on their ability to address their defensive woes and make progress in the standings.

If I’m Peter Chiarelli and Lucic is willing to sign for the money and the term the Kings are said to have offered him, I sign that deal 7 days a week. Given the fact Lucic has turned down that offer for a team he wishes to stay with, I’d be extremely cautious about throwing money and term at him if he hits the free market.

Thanks for reading, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments or hit me up on twitter: @KjellIverson