The Million Dollar Question…

Yesterday I was bored, feeling a little lethargic which is pretty usual this time of year. The Oilers have missed the playoffs ten years in a row, I wasn’t having a very good day for the most part and then I came up with an idea. Maybe I should watch highlights from the 2006 playoff run, because that’s what us Oilers fans do. I started watching the 70 goals scored during those playoffs.

I came to a pretty quick conclusion, that team LOVED to one time the puck on the powerplay. They’d put Pronger at the top, Stoll on the left half wall and Spacek on the right half wall. Then shoot away, it didn’t hurt to have big #94 in every goalies kitchen either. As I was thinking about the 2006 powerplay, I got a DM on Twitter asking about the realistic chances of landing Steve Stamkos. So like the diligent little fellow that I a
m, I started asking people who know a little more than me. Basically all of them told me the same thing: “Don’t consider them the front runner, but they’ll definitely be interested in his services.”

Pros for Stamkos coming to Edmonton

• Edmonton adds an elite scorer up front, he’d probably push 50 goals playing with Connor
• Veteran presence
• Gives Edmonton an elite left wall shot on the PP
• Even though he’d play on McDavid’s wing, he’d bring extra center depth
• In years 6&7 he wouldn’t be worn out

Cons for Stamkos coming to Edmonton

• Big ticket = less depth
• We’d have to listen to Leafs fans whine for the next 7 years

Fun With Numbers

Of course I had to crunch the numbers to see if it was actually possible to make it work. Stamkos obviously is an elite player, he can play centre and scores 35-40 goals. There aren’t many warts in his game. He’s a young veteran, been to a Stanley cup final and knows what it takes to win. After crunching the numbers it would be tight but plausible. Kris Hansen looked into the defensive side yesterday and I used these two defensemen for cap purposes while calculating the projected cap. Some believe the cap next year will be around 72-73 million next year according to Mark Spector.

Projected cap = $72.7m

Commited $$ for 16/17= $58.7m (without bonuses)

Cap room this summer = $14m

Teams can go above the cap by 7.5% for bonus structured deals. Connor McDavid, Leon Drasaitl Darnell Nurse and (for instance) Jesse Puljujarvi. I didn’t figure in Darnell Nurse’s bonuses because I don’t expect them to add up to much. To be safe I calculated the other three at maximum bonuses ($2.85m X 3 players = 8.55 million). The Oilers can write off $5.4m of that with out any harm. They would have to carry the extra $3.15 million over onto the actual cap, which would leave the Oilers with about $9.75 million free. They also have to resign Kassian at $2.0 million (estimate), which isn’t a huge hit.

The Oilers have Leon Drasaitl as an RFA next summer. They still have money to sign him. Then obviously Connor McDavid the year after, which is when I suspect we’ll see RNH moved to help cover the contract of McDavid. It would be extremely tight, the Oilers would need Stamkos to sign a cap friendly deal. Which he possibly would be interested in with the opportunity to play with Connor McDavid. Which on the flip side maybe convinces Connor to sign a cap friendly deal to stay longterm.

2016/17 Potential Lineup

Maroon – McDavid – Stamkos

Hall – Draisaitl – Kassian

Helm – RNH – Puljujarvi

Khaira – Letestu – Sallinen

Klefbom – Hamonic

Sekera – Vatanen

Nurse – Davidson

Talbot / Brossoit

The Oilers would have $9.75 million free with this lineup. We would also have to take Khaira and Sallinen’s contracts into consideration. At the end of the day they would have somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8.8 million free. They could also invest that into a couple more experienced 4th liners on 1 year deals or something.

Final Thoughts

All things considered, I think the Oilers definitely have to take a look at the price point. Obviously he’ll be able to get $11 million a year in Toronto. But Toronto is a few years away from being a contender. The Oilers can’t afford to go to $11 million per year. They could make it work around $9 million per year. I’ve said it for awhile, the Oilers need to find another guy that likes to shoot the puck, especially for the powerplay. If the Oilers could add a Vatanen and a Stamkos, their powerplay % would probably go up 5% instantly.

Obviously it becomes tough, because then at some point they have a couple tough decisions to make. I love Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but if he has to go in a couple years in favour of Stamkos, I can’t see to many people being upset about that. I believe the Oilers would have to convince Stamkos they’re dedicated to winning, which is why the Oilers could be very active at the draft working on Vatanen and Hamonic deals. That would be a huge selling feature to Stamkos if he sees the organization shore up their glaring weakness come July 1st. On the downside, if Stamkos chases the money the Oilers will be in a very good position to add some less expensive depth guys. It goes without saying that for Chiarelli to be successful, he’ll have a lot of work ahead of him. I keep hearing the same thing over and over again. “Peter Chiarelli might be the busiest General Manager in the entire NHL this summer”

Buckle up Oil Country, we could be in for a hell of a ride this summer!