I won’t spend much time dissecting the state of the union address that the Dork Knight Daryl Katz leveled on Oilerville yesterday. I’m going to lay out my thoughts about it though. It starts with this… What a pile of steaming “Oilers way” sanctimony that should have unanimously flown over like a wingless, lead brick. If you don’t view it that way then you should hang your head in shame because you, fair stranger, are sadly mistaken.
It is high time that fans, holding the never fading blue & orange lighter of love for all thing Oiler, pulled their collective heads out of the oil sands. This team can only be considered farther along than they were 5 years ago, marginally none the less, in the absolute weakest of weak arguments. Yes they have amassed some impressive offensive talent but beyond that what do they have to show for the systemic losing? Any statement saying this team is “on the right track” is a bold faced, foolish denial of the cold hard truth. It pains me to know that there are still people buying the elixir this side show is selling.
Earlier this year (I think) Jonathon Willis crunched some numbers and did some comparisons. I can’t for the life of me find the article so I did a little of my own info gathering. I went through the NHL standings back to the 05-06 season and looked for teams who registered less than 40 wins in one season, 75 in all.From there I looked for the teams that made the playoffs the season after they finished with less than 40 wins, 25 of the 75. Below is the list of those 25…
| W | L | OTL | PTS | GF | GA | G Diff | 5v5 F/A Ratio | |||||
| 05-06 | 11 | Minnesota | NW | 82 | 38 | 36 | 8 | 84 | 231 | 215 | 16 | 0.91 |
| 10-11 | 11 | St. Louis | CEN | 82 | 38 | 33 | 11 | 87 | 240 | 234 | 6 | 1.02 |
| 09-10 | 9 | NY Rangers | ATL | 82 | 38 | 33 | 11 | 87 | 222 | 218 | 4 | 1.06 |
| 07-08 | 11 | Vancouver | NW | 82 | 39 | 33 | 10 | 88 | 213 | 215 | -2 | 1.00 |
| 06-07 | 12 | Florida | SE | 82 | 35 | 31 | 16 | 86 | 247 | 257 | -10 | 1.09 |
| 09-10 | 11 | Anaheim | PAC | 82 | 39 | 32 | 11 | 89 | 238 | 251 | -13 | 0.98 |
| 11-12 | 15 | Montréal | NE | 82 | 31 | 35 | 16 | 78 | 212 | 226 | -14 | 0.95 |
| 08-09 | 11 | Ottawa | NE | 82 | 36 | 35 | 11 | 83 | 217 | 237 | -20 | 0.88 |
| 07-08 | 13 | Columbus | CEN | 82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 | 193 | 218 | -25 | 0.90 |
| 08-09 | 14 | Los Angeles | PAC | 82 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 79 | 207 | 234 | -27 | 0.82 |
| 11-12 | 13 | Anaheim | PAC | 82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 | 204 | 231 | -27 | 0.90 |
| 07-08 | 14 | St. Louis | CEN | 82 | 33 | 36 | 13 | 79 | 205 | 237 | -32 | 0.94 |
| 11-12 | 13 | Toronto | NE | 82 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 80 | 231 | 264 | -33 | 0.86 |
| 10-11 | 15 | Florida | SE | 82 | 30 | 40 | 12 | 72 | 195 | 229 | -34 | 0.87 |
| 10-11 | 11 | New Jersey | ATL | 82 | 38 | 39 | 5 | 81 | 174 | 209 | -35 | 0.80 |
| 09-10 | 12 | Tampa Bay | SE | 82 | 34 | 36 | 12 | 80 | 217 | 260 | -43 | 0.83 |
| 08-09 | 13 | Phoenix | PAC | 82 | 36 | 39 | 7 | 79 | 208 | 252 | -44 | 0.84 |
| 05-06 | 12 | NY Islanders | ATL | 82 | 36 | 40 | 6 | 78 | 230 | 278 | -48 | 0.91 |
| 11-12 | 12 | Minnesota | NW | 82 | 35 | 36 | 11 | 81 | 177 | 226 | -49 | 0.76 |
| 06-07 | 14 | Washington | SE | 82 | 28 | 40 | 14 | 70 | 235 | 286 | -51 | 0.85 |
| 11-12 | 14 | NY Islanders | ATL | 82 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 79 | 203 | 255 | -52 | 0.74 |
| 08-09 | 15 | Colorado | NW | 82 | 32 | 45 | 5 | 69 | 199 | 257 | -58 | 0.75 |
| 10-11 | 13 | Ottawa | NE | 82 | 32 | 40 | 10 | 74 | 192 | 250 | -58 | 0.73 |
| 06-07 | 13 | Boston | NE | 82 | 35 | 41 | 6 | 76 | 219 | 289 | -70 | 0.71 |
| 05-06 | 15 | Pittsburgh | ATL | 82 | 22 | 46 | 14 | 58 | 244 | 316 | -72 | 0.83 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13-14 | Edmonton | 51 | 15 | 30 | 6 | 36 | 131 | 181 | -50 | 0.68 | ||
| On Pace | 24 | 48 | 10 | 58 | 211 | 291 | -80 |
The chart is sorted by total goal differential but there are a few numbers I want you to focus on. First, the 5v5 for/against ratio. This current Oilers incarnation has the lowest. Second, they are on pace to eclipse the total goal differential of the 05-06 Penguins. Third, they are on pace for 24 wins and 58 points. Do the Oilers look like they fit within that group as a whole? If you say yes, you’re lying to yourself and everyone else and you should feel immediate, permanent shame.
I don’t want to be too condescending, but do those of you who believe in the message sent out yesterday, that they are on the right track, really understand what the near future holds for a team as bad as the Oilers? If you answered the playoffs, you’re probably going to be very disappointed come next April Christmas. The list of player acquisitions is far to great to solve in one off season, and it wouldn’t at all be a shock if it took three.
This team is on pace to register one of the worst records since the 04-05 lockout. They are holding company with some putrid seasons. There are only 13 teams that finished with less than 30 wins between 05-06 and 11-12. There are four teams of interest to me in that group. The 05-06 Penguins and the 06-07 Capitals are two of them. If there is any glimmer of hope for the Oilers within these two examples it is this. The Pens and Caps had collected two impressive groups of drafted players prior to their dramatic turns of fortune and playoff appearances the season following their sub 30 win performances. But generational talents like Crosby, Malkin and Ovechikin drove those buses and the Oilers do not have. And were the Pens and Caps playing in a division with 3 Stanley Cup contenders? No. Comparable turnaround likely? I doubt it a great deal.
This brings me to the other two teams of the four that caught my eye. In my best Rexall announcer voice “Ladies and Gentlemen, YOUR, EDMONTON, OILERS!” Of course it’s the Oilers! 27 wins in 09-10 and 25 in 10-11. (In all fairness I don’t have much of a problem with those two seasons. Fans bought in and the suck landed the Oilers Hall and Nuge.)
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought that the point of a rebuild is for the team to actually get better. Judging by the numbers and by eye… Wholly f**k is that not happening and Darly Katz and co. are taking us for dullards. Which brings me to the point of this unorganized, pseudo rant. WHY IS ANYONE HOLDING LOYAL TO THIS MANAGEMENT TEAM OF HAS BEEN, GLORY YEARS DONKEYS?
I get the love for the team. I’m still consuming the content and partially watching the games but at what point do fans say enough is enough? Is it not time to send the message that failure and incompetence are no longer options? Does Katz’ unbelievably tone deaf leaflet not clearly shout that they don’t get it? THIS is their vision?! Stay the course?! On the right track?! AAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!
I am putting a call out to season ticket holders. It’s time to vote with your wallets. You are all being made to look like fools and you are the only outside influence they’ll listen to. The team is not going anywhere for a long time, what with the fancy new building rolling into a downtown near you, so I plead to you. When season ticket renewals come up take some time to decide. See where they take the roster over the summer. Wait for some sign of real movement. Make them show that the true issues surrounding this roster (defense and complete forwards) are addressed. Stop shelling out thousands and thousand of dollars for a shitty product. You won’t miss anything because, well, they suck, and I don’t think there are 17,000 thousandaires lined up behind you frothing over your spot. Hold the logo that you love to a higher standard and say “I WANT BETTER!”
It’s your move fans & die-hards. Demand it. Don’t take any less, anymore.
Feel free to leave a comment or share some banter with me on Twitter, @borisnikov, be it hockey or otherwise.
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