Now that the 2023 season is over for the New York Mets, we will spend the next several weeks taking a look at the big picture. This deep dive will be broken down into phases every weekday, continuing today with a look back at some preseason predictions.
It’s funny how quickly things can change over the course of a 162-game baseball season. The New York Mets began the year fresh off a 101-win season with expectations of World Series contention only for everything to spiral out of control by the end of June. A mid-season fire sale left the Mets with a clean slate heading into the offseason, but in order to truly assess what went wrong for the Amazin’s we’ll use today’s Season In Review spotlight to look back at the biggest questions facing the team in the preseason.
Revisiting Preseason Predictions
1. Did The Mets Add Enough Offense?
What We Said Then: The failure to close the Carlos Correa deal left the Mets looking like they needed another bat but GM Billy Eppler didn’t add anyone bigger than Tommy Pham in free agency. Prospects Brett Baty, Mark Vietnos and Francisco Alvarez will begin the season at AAA Syracuse, leaving the offense looking very similar to the one that ended last year in a power slump.
What Actually Happened: This turned out to be a clear no as the Mets needed a strong rookie season from Alvarez and plus production from Pham in his four months with the team to offset declines from Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The offense came around by the end of the year but it was too late to make a meaningful impact in 2023.
2. How Will The Mets Replace Edwin Diaz?
What We Said Then: Diaz’s injury in the World Baseball Classic changes the outlook of the bullpen completely. David Robertson will likely get the bulk of the save chances but that will move everyone else up in the pecking order, which could leave the unit an arm short in the late innings.
What Actually Happened: This is pretty much exactly how things went. Robertson did fine as the closer but Eppler failed to provide enough depth to the unit, leading to some late inning woes that were exacerbated by the starter’s failure to get deep into games early in the season.
3. Can The Co-Aces Stay Healthy?
What We Said Then: The Mets are making a big bet with veteran aces in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, both of whom will be over the age of 38 at the start of the season. Both aces can be very effective when they’re healthy but expecting both to provide 200 innings may not be realistic.
What Actually Happened: This didn’t work out well either as Verlander missed the first month of the year with a Teres Major strain while Scherzer battled neck and back issues. The pair finally got healthy together in June but weren’t consistent enough to justify the hefty price tags Steve Cohen was paying them, leading to both aces getting dealt at the trade deadline.
4. When Will The Mets Give Their Prospects A Shot?
What We Said Then: Baty, Vientos and Alvarez could all provide a significant offensive boost when given a shot at AAA. Alvarez still has work to do defensively behind the plate but the other two could be up quickly if they get off to hot starts while veterans like Eduardo Escobar and Daniel Vogelbach don’t.
What Actually Happened: An injury to Omar Narvaez forced the Mets to go Alvarez quickly and he rewarded them with a 25-homer campaign as a rookie. Escobar’s early struggles paved the way for Baty to get a quick recall from AAA Syracuse by mid-April but the team was extremely hesitant to give either Vientos or Ronny Mauricio extended run until the season was well out of hand. Reports emerged after the year that Eppler may have been to blame as he insisted the team keep playing Vogelbach despite his lack of production.
5. How Will The New Schedule Format Impact The Mets?
What We Said Then: The Mets will play every team for at least three games this season, which means less games against the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, which is a positive. Losing six games with the Nationals should balance out with games against mediocre American League teams so the situation should be a net positive.
What Actually Happened: This didn’t end up mattering a ton in the grand scheme of things. The Mets squandered a soft portion of their schedule in early May and were climbing out of a hole ever since, meaning less games against the Braves and Phillies didn’t amount to anything positive.
6. Do The Mets Have Enough Starting Pitching Depth?
What We Said Then: That depth is already being tested with David Peterson stepping into the starting rotation in place of the injured Jose Quintana, who will miss at least three months. Tylor Megill would be the next man up if another starter is needed while Joey Lucchesi and Elieser Hernandez remain in AAA Syracuse as depth options.
What Actually Happened: Perhaps the right question should have been how effective will the Mets’ depth be. Both Peterson and Megill were ineffective early in the season, costing the Mets a lot of games, before showing some progress when the results didn’t matter. Lucchesi was effective in his limited opportunities while Jose Butto also showed some promise at the end of the year. Hernandez never threw a pitch for the Mets after battling injuries all season long.
7. Can Brandon Nimmo Stay Healthy?
What We Said Then: Nimmo, who has had a track record of missing time throughout his career, stayed healthy in 2022 and earned an eight-year, $162 million deal with the Mets in the offseason. There are few good options to replace Nimmo atop the lineup or in center field so the Mets really need to keep him out there as often as possible.
What Actually Happened: Nimmo played in a career-high 152 games while setting new career highs in home runs (24) and RBIs (68). This was a very positive development for the Mets, whose big bet on Nimmo paid off for the first year of his long-term contract.
8. What Will Kodai Senga Do?
What We Said Then: The one player with a wide range of outcomes on the roster is Senga, who was brought over from Japan to replace Chris Bassitt in the starting rotation. Senga has flashed the potential to dominate in America, which could raise the upside on the Mets’ roster significantly.
What Actually Happened: This was another win for the Mets as Senga transitioned seamlessly to American baseball, going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 166.1 innings as a rookie. Senga would have been a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year if he wasn’t sharing the National League with Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, whose excellent campaign made him the runaway winner early on.
9. Who Is The Mets’ X-Factor In 2022?
What We Said Then: The biggest X-factor for the 2022 Mets is Eduardo Escobar, who looked like a true power threat during his September to remember and can be a huge power threat behind Pete Alonso in the lineup. If Escobar struggles early it could force the Mets to turn to Baty earlier than they want to.
What Actually Happened: Escobar lost his job by the middle of April and was dealt away to the Los Angeles Angels for two pitching prospects in mid-June. While there were positive moments in his Mets’ tenure, Escobar’s deal ended up being a bust for the team and was a symbol of the rapid decline from the 2022 team that no one saw coming.
10. Will Billy Eppler Be More Aggressive At The Trade Deadline?
What We Said Then: The Mets were very conservative at the deadline last year as Eppler emphasized hanging onto his prospects, costing them an opportunity to significantly upgrade their roster during a 101-win season. With a clear need in the bullpen and potentially another big bat being a desire, Eppler may have to take bigger swings if the Mets want to win it all in 2023.
What Actually Happened: Eppler was certainly more aggressive but as a seller, shipping out Scherzer, Verlander, Canha, Pham, Robertson and Dominic Leone for nine prospects whose quality was enhanced by Cohen’s willingness to pay down salaries for the departing players. Those prospects, headlined by LuisAngel Acuna, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, will be Eppler’s parting gift to new President of Baseball Operations David Stearns after Eppler’s resignation as GM following the season.
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