Since General Manager Sandy Alderson took over, the New York Mets have placed little value on defense. Alderson has always believed in the home run ball, so he built a team of sluggers to provide some pop and give his elite pitching staff run support. That staff was built to rely heavily on the strikeout, one of the three true outcomes sabermetric experts subscribe to, so the Mets’ thought process was that they would be more likely to get away with subpar defense if their pitchers were striking out a ton of hitters. That formula worked in 2015 and 2016, but it hasn’t worked this season, as the Mets’ pitching staff isn’t recording as many K’s. As a result, more balls are finding holes, extending innings and causing the Mets’ starters to record extra outs.
When the starters don’t get deep enough into games, that forces the Mets to rely more heavily on a depleted bullpen, leading to a never ending cycle of ineffectiveness and frustration. The best way to break this cycle is to finally adapt and put more of an emphasis on defense going forward. The Mets will have a golden opportunity to adjust their roster this winter, when many key players will become free agents, opening a ton of salary to spend retooling the team. Instead of sinking that money back into one dimensional sluggers, the Mets should look for more dynamic hitters who are capable of playing strong defense as well.
Part of the issue for the Mets this season is that they have played people out of position far too often. The Mets have been making four corner outfielders fit into three starting spots by inserting either Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto into center field. This is a significant issue as both are far better suited for the corners, reducing the amount of ground they can cover in Citi Field’s expansive outfield. The infield defense has been a bigger problem as both Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker appear to have taken a step back at their respective positions. Cabrera has looked better since moving to second base, but that may be a temporary fix since Walker is due back from the disabled list at some point in late July. The Mets have also had a revolving door at third base since David Wright’s injury, featuring a cast of utility infielders that are more known for their bats than their gloves, including T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores.
The good news for the Mets is that two of their top minor league prospects are superb defenders. Amed Rosario has drawn rave reviews for his defense and is generally regarded as a five tool player, so he should help the defense as soon as he makes his big league debut. Dominic Smith is also regarded as an excellent defensive first baseman, and he should step into a job as soon as the Mets either trade Lucas Duda or let him walk in free agency. The Mets have so far resisted the urge to recall Rosario or Smith despite the fact that both look ready to contribute, but they should both be up in the second half if the season spirals out of control.
Giving starting roles to Smith and Rosario next season will help, but the Mets have more work to do to overhaul their defense. Yoenis Cespedes is a capable defender in left field, and Conforto can be an average right fielder if all else fails. The Mets need to resist the urge to sign a slugging corner outfielder, like bringing back Jay Bruce, in order to open up right for Conforto and find a true center fielder. If Conforto is in right, the Mets need to focus on filling four positions: second base, third base, catcher, and center.
Second base is a relatively easy position if the Mets opt to pick up Cabrera’s option or re-sign Walker, since keeping one of them makes sense. The Mets would love to find an upgrade behind the plate, but there are few good free agent options outside of Jonathan Lucroy, so the Mets may be stuck with a combination of Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera for another year. The positions the Mets should really be focusing on upgrading are third base and center field.
Third base has been Wright’s spot, but considering he has yet to play this season and has played only 75 regular season games since the start of 2015 due to a variety of injuries the Mets can’t count on him. The best move for Wright would be to switch to first base over the winter, giving the Mets a viable platoon partner for the left handed hitting Smith while allowing Wright to feast on left handed pitching. Fortunately for the Mets, there are two great fielding third baseman expected to hit free agency after this season who can also hit. New Jersey native Todd Frazier has been linked to the Mets in the past and offers some serious power, slugging 120 homers over the past three and a half years, while also providing solid defense at the hot corner. Frazier is 31, however, and hits for a poor average so giving him a long term deal could be risky. A better fit would be Kansas City Royals’ third baseman Mike Moustakas, who is only 28 and blossoming at the plate, batting .275 with a career high 25 homers and 54 RBI’s in his first 77 games of 2017. Moustakas is also an excellent defender, so adding him at third could really help the defense.
Another interesting spot for the Mets to look at a defensive upgrade is center field. Another Royals’ player, outfielder Lorenzo Cain, is due to be a free agent and could be an excellent fit for the Mets. Cain is batting .274 with 11 homers, 30 RBI’s, and 15 stolen bases over his first 82 games. The Royals have thrived over the past few years defensively due in part to Cain’s excellent range in center field, so he could help the Mets in center as well. The Mets may be wary of giving Cain a long term contract due to the fact that he is 32 years old, meaning he may need to switch out of center in a few years, making him less valuable defensively. Another option would to be to try and find a left handed hitter who can platoon with Juan Lagares in center. Lagares is already an excellent defender, and complementing him with a lefty could allow the Mets to focus their money on other areas, like third base and the bullpen.
Here’s a hypothetical team the Mets could field in 2018:
C: Travis d’Arnaud/Rene Rivera
1B: Dominic Smith/David Wright
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera
SS: Amed Rosario
3B: Mike Moustakas
LF: Yoenis Cespedes
CF: Lagares/LH Platoon Partner
RF: Conforto
The only significant expense in this alignment would be signing Moustakas, freeing up other money to add a few relievers to the bullpen. This team would be significantly better defensively, and if Rosario is capable of leading off the Mets could have a solid middle of the batting order with Cabrera, Conforto, Cespedes, and Moustakas in front of Smith. The added defense would help the starters get deeper into games, allowing the bullpen to be more rested and not be overworked. This scenario makes too much sense not to try, but we’ll have to see if Alderson is willing to change his philosophy this winter.
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