After a 101-win season in 2022 and an all-time record-high payroll, the New York Mets entered 2023 with massive expectations. An offseason spending spree reloaded the pitching staff with a short-term high-end replacement for Jacob deGrom in Justin Verlander, new back-of-the-rotation options in Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, and significant bullpen pieces like David Robertson. Losing Edwin Diaz to a nearly season-ending injury in the World Baseball Classic was going to be a problem, but few expected the first half to go as poorly as it has for the Mets, who finished their first 90 games at 42-48.
Things started well enough for the Mets, who went 14-7 over their first 21 games before dealing with the ramifications of a sticky substance ban for Max Scherzer. That 10-game ban proved to be the catalyst for nearly two months of struggles for the Mets, who couldn’t get consistent results from their starting rotation and burned out a bullpen that General Manager Billy Eppler severely understaffed. For too often in the first half, the Mets would prove unable to sync up their good hitting days with their good pitching ones, resulting in losses that came at a far greater frequency than they ever did in 2022.
Despite those struggles with consistency, the Mets appeared to be turning a corner at the end of May when they swept the Philadelphia Phillies at home on June 1 to improve to 30-27 on the season. What followed might have been one of the worst months in franchise history as the Mets went just 7-19 in June to completely bury themselves in the National League East and dig a deep hole in the Wild Card race. Things got so bad that owner Steve Cohen scheduled a mid-season press conference to take accountability for the Mets’ flop, indicating that Eppler and manager Buck Showalter were safe for the rest of the regular season.
There appeared to be a turnaround once the Mets got out of June as they ripped off a season-high six-game winning streak to start July, but even that was soured by dropping the final two games of the half to the equally disappointing San Diego Padres. The offense disappeared for most of the San Diego series and Scherzer dug the Mets a huge hole in the finale, one that the offense was unable to overcome.
The standings say that the Mets are seven games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot with 72 games to play and that they have to climb past five teams to claim it. The odds are stacked against a revival since the Mets squandered an easier portion of their schedule, going just 4-9 in a stretch of 13 games in May where they faced the Detroit Tigers, the then-struggling Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies. Flipping that record would have the Mets at 47-43 and two games out of the last playoff spot, a big difference compared to where they are now.
There were definitely positive signs in the first half, including outstanding performances from rookies Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Senga, who was named to the National League’s All-Star Team on Saturday. Alvarez looks like a potential superstar behind the plate while Senga has been one of baseball’s best pitchers over the past two months, providing a few key building blocks to a team that needs it. The offense as a whole has also been much more productive over the past six weeks as Francisco Lindor has put up huge power numbers, Brandon Nimmo produced at an All-Star level and the starting pitching began to stabilize.
The problem is that the Mets’ schedule is quite challenging in the second half and features few respites against non-contenders. For argument’s sake, let’s assume that the win total for the Mets to get the final playoff spot in the NL is 87, which is what it took the Phillies to get it in 2022. Reaching 87 wins would require the Mets to go 45-27 over their final 72 games, a pace that seems far outside the reach of the inconsistent 2023 team.
The talent on this roster is still capable of putting it together, which is evident from the hot stretches the Mets had in the first half. Those stretches need to come far more often in the second if the Mets hope to salvage what has been a very disappointing year to say the least.
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