After the New York Mets waved the white flag on their season in July, expectations for the rest of the 2023 campaign were clearly lowered. The organization’s decision to punt the rest of the season didn’t lead to an immediate influx of young prospects getting playing time, instead seeing journeymen like Danny Mendick, Jonathan Arauz and Rafael Ortega receive plenty of playing time in August. The results were about as ugly as you would expect as the Mets went just 11-18 in 29 games to drop into last place in the National League East.
The month started poorly as the Mets lost six games in a row, beginning with a three-game sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals, the second-worst team in baseball. Other than games against the National League Central, where the Mets went 7-3, the rest of the league essentially picked apart the depleted big-league team for wins they needed. Rock bottom came in the opening game of a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on August 12, which the Mets lost 21-5 with a lineup that was more recognizable in a spring training context.
By choosing the path of blowing up the 2023 roster, the Mets committed to essentially bottoming out this year’s draft pick, giving them a shot at a lottery pick if they finish with one of the six worst records in baseball. Maximizing lottery odds means the Mets have a better chance to keep a top-six pick, which would add a significant amount of bonus pool money to their next draft class, instead of seeing their top pick drop 10 slots due to luxury tax penalties. That calculus appears to have driven the decision making for the team, which also sent Brett Baty down to AAA Syracuse for a mental reset, with a focus more on putting themselves in the best position to win in 2024.
The star of August on the offensive side was ironically D.J. Stewart, an outfielder the team added on a minor league deal late in spring training. Stewart received regular playing time after Starling Marte went down with a groin issue and crushed the ball, hitting .303 with eight home runs and 16 RBIs to help power the Mets’ offense. Several of the mainstays also had productive months, including Pete Alonso (.228/9/21), Francisco Lindor (.305/3/14) and Jeff McNeil (.308/3/13).
The Mets also had to feel good about the performances of two key members of their 2023 rotation, Jose Quintana and Kodai Senga. Quintana only earned one win despite pitching to a 3.25 ERA in 36 innings, racking up 27 strikeouts in the process. Senga did manage to pull off a winning record, going 3-2 in his five starts with a 3.16 ERA and striking out 34 batters in 31.1 innings pitched. There wasn’t a ton to write home about in the bullpen but Adam Ottavino did work to a 1.80 ERA with a save in 11 appearances while Sam Coonrod fared well in his Mets’ debut, delivering a 1.69 ERA in seven appearances.
The month of September promises to be more about development for the Mets, who will promote top prospect Ronny Mauricio from AAA Syracuse once rosters expand tomorrow. The return of Baty shouldn’t be too far behind as the Mets will worry more about entering 2024 in the best possible position with their players, which includes going to a six-man rotation for most of the month to avoid overtaxing Senga down the stretch. The schedule is home-heavy again as the Mets play 16 home games against just 12 road games, beginning with a three-game set against the Seattle Mariners tomorrow. A trip to Washington and Minnesota follows before the Mets return home for seven games against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds, both of whom are fighting for wild card positioning. The final two weeks of the season brings strictly National League East play as the Mets play home-and-home series with the Miami Marlins, who they haven’t seen since April, and the Philadelphia Phillies.
There are 28 games left in the season and the Mets are all but guaranteed to win at least two games to avoid the ignominy of a 100-loss season. It would take another 12 wins for the Mets to avoid 90 losses, which is possible but may be a tall ask for this current roster. The bigger question worth watching here is how low in the standings the Mets finish, which would impact their odds of protecting their first-round pick if they have a little luck in the draft lottery. Apart from that and development of the young players, there simply isn’t much happening for the Mets apart from playing out the string.
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